Clean Fuels for Asia

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Clean Fuels for Asia
Bert Fabian Transport Unit Head, CAI-Asia
Center Cebu, Philippines Jan 2008
Sustainable Urban Mobility in Asia A CAI-Asia
Program
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Urban Air Quality Levels in Asia
Aggregated Annual Ambient AQ Trends, mg/m3 (1993
to 2005)

• Air quality in Asia is improving but still far
  above WHO limits
• PM is main pollutant of concern

Source CAI-Asia, 2007
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Economic Growth and Air Pollution Trend Asia
Electricity Generation, 129
I NCREASE
Energy Consumption, 79
GDP (constant 1990), 65
GDP per cap, 45
Urban population share, 25
DECREAS E
NO2, - 14
PM10, - 20
TSP, - 25
SO2, - 32
Sources BP Statistical Review of World Energy
June 2007 - http//www.bp.com/statisticalreview UN
DESA - http//esa.un.org/unpp
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Vehicle Growth Forecast in Asian Countries(in
Millions of Vehicles)
PR China
India
Thailand
Indonesia
Note Vehicle Population Projection from Segment
Y Ltd
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Vehicle Emission Standards in Asia
(new light-duty vehicles)
Notes Italics under discussion a gasoline
b Diesel c Entire country d Delhi,
Chennai, Mumbai, Kolkata, Bangalore, Hydrabad,
Agra, Surat, Pune, Kanpur, Ahmedabad, Sholapur,
Lucknow Other cities in India are in Euro 2 e
Beijing and Guangzhou (as of 01 September 2006)
have adopted Euro 3 standards Shanghai has
requested the approval of the State Council for
implementation of Euro 3 f Euro 4 for gasoline
vehicles and California ULEV standards for diesel
vehicles g As per government regulation
1295-11 from Ministry of Environment and Natural
Resources http//www.cea.lk/acts/reg1295-11.pdf
h Gasoline vehicles under consideration
Source CAI-Asia. 2008, January. Emission
standards for new vehicles (light duty).
Available http//www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia/1412
/articles-58969_new.pdf
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Fuel Quality Standards in Asia (levels of
sulfur in diesel)
gt 500 ppm
51 500 ppm
lt 50 ppm
Source CAI-Asia, 2007 Dec
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Integrated Approach

• Fuels and vehicles are part of an overall, wider,
  air quality context
• AQM efforts will usually also include activities
  aimed at reducing emissions from stationary
  sources and area sources
• Emission reduction from mobile sources will also
  have to include I/M and transport demand oriented
  measures
• The absence of detailed emission inventories and
  source apportionment studies should not prevent
  Asian countries from developing cleaner fuel
  roadmaps
• Fuels and vehicles are an integrated system

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Fuel Specifications (1)

• Fuel quality does not only influence emissions
  but also drivability, engine wear and fuel
  efficiency
• Supportive research for fuel specifications has
  been well established and generally there is no
  need for Asian countries to replicate such
  research
• Asian countries should implement all fuel
  parameters as defined in fuel specifications
  linked to European emission specifications
• Asian countries with warm climate can apply
  variation in RVP
• In some cases the adoption of a comprehensive set
  of fuel properties will delay the introduction of
  cleaner fuels substantially. In such cases the
  option to reduce sulfur first may be considered

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Fuel Specifications (2)

• Leapfrog from Euro 2 to Euro 4 emission standards
  makes good technical and financial sense
• Some Asian countries where air pollution from
  transport is severe should consider Euro 5
  standards
• Asian countries with large domestic refining
  capacity can consider applying US flexibility
  principle. Importing countries should not do so.
• Fuel quality monitoring is essential, especially
  where different fuel standards exist in the same
  country

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Octane Enhancing Additives (1)

• Use of oxygenates or additives, like MTBE, ETBE,
  TAME, Ethanol, MMT, Ferrocene, etc. to enhance
  octane in gasoline has become relevant after the
  phase out of leaded gasoline in Asian countries
• Concerns have been raised on the health and/or
  environmental impacts of especially MMT,
  Ferrocene and other ash-forming metal based
  additives
• The preferred long-term solution is to update and
  enhance refinery capacity without the need to use
  metallic or oxygenate octane enhancing additives
  

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Octane Enhancing Additives (2)

• In the short term, if octane enhancement is
  needed prior to such investments
• Use of MTBE, ETBE and TAME should be limited to
  maximum allowable concentrations to 2.7 (mass
  O2) and respectively 15, 17.1 and 16.6 by
  volume
• Ethanol blending should be limited to 10 by
  volume and 3.7 by mass
• Use of MMT and Ferrocene should be discouraged
  because of potential health concerns and
  potential impacts on vehicle emissions and
  emissions systems components
• If Asian countries do decide to authorize the use
  of MMT, ferrocene, or other ash forming metal
  based additives to raise octane, they should make
  this decision on a refinery-by-refinery permit
  basis, with a clear time table for phase out

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Timing of Introduction of Cleaner Fuels

• Technology for fuel improvement is well
  established and can be applied in Asia on a
  no-risk basis
• Euro 4 Vehicle technology well established in
  Asia
• Maximum lead time to move to Euro 4 or stricter
  is 4-6 years but in many cases can be shorter
• Import of Euro 4 fuels can be considered pending
  the construction or modification of refineries to
  shorten the lead time for introduction of cleaner
  standards
• Refinery expansion in Asia should be based on
  Euro 4 or stricter standards

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Cleaner Fuels and In-use Vehicles

• Main driver for cleaner fuels are new vehicles,
  there is an impact on in-use vehicles as well but
  more research required on the impact of cleaner
  fuels on in-use vehicles
• Cleaner fuels, especially with less than 50 ppm
  sulfur allow for retrofit of gross polluting
  diesel vehicles
• Technology is established now and pilot projects
  have demonstrated impact
• Current cost levels justify focus on retrofit of
  high use fleet vehicles
• Alternative approach of dealing with gross
  polluting vehicles remains phase out.

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Introduction Scenarios

• Uniform introduction across country
• Advantages in terms of AQ impact provided
  specifications are strict enough
• High short term costs to refining sector
• Avoids misfueling
• Flexibility provision for special markets
  (off-road and stationary)
• Prioritized introduction in selected cities
• Can be considered for large countries, e.g. India
  and China
• Requires availability segregated fuel marketing
  and distribution system
• Price differential whereby cleaner fuel should be
  cheaper
• Fuel quality monitoring important to ensure
  misfueling
• Harmonized standards across Asia
• Security of availability of cleaner fuels
• Reduction in complexity for the vehicle industry

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Facilitation of Introduction of Cleaner Fuels

• Fuel quality regulations, combined with emission
  standards should be the backbone of any policy or
  strategy on cleaner fuels
• Government policy to accelerate production or
  uptake of cleaner fuels
• Public outreach and consensus building
• Combination of tax and pricing policies
• Temporary incentives can be used to speed up
  acceleration of market uptake of cleaner fuels
• Cost for producing cleaner fuels needs to be
  passed on to consumer
• Controlled pricing, still prevalent in some Asian
  markets precludes the opportunity to pass on
  costs
• Increasing Asian markets are being deregulated
  opening up the possibility to pass on costs

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For more information, please contact
CAI-Asia Center Cornie Huizenga, Executive
Director cornie.huizenga_at_cai-asia.org Bert
Fabian, Transport Unit Head bert.fabian_at_cai-asia
.org Au Ables, Transport Specialist
au.ables_at_cai-asia.org www.cleanairnet.org/caiasi
a Unit 3510, 35th Floor, Robinsons-Equitable
Tower, ADB Avenue, Ortigas Center, Pasig City,
Metro Manila, Philippines