Source Areas

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Source Areas Influencing Visibility in
Southeastern US August 18, 2005
Mt. Cammerer, Great Smoky Mtns. National Park
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VISTAS is evaluating visibility and sources of
fine particle mass in the Southeastern US
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Weight of Evidence

• Monitoring Trends
• Back Trajectory and Residence Time Analyses
• Evidence for Role of Fire
• Receptor Modeling (MRPO-MARAMA 2003)
• Regional Air Quality Modeling (CMAQ, CAMx,
  REMSAD)

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18 Class I areas and monitor locations
SEARCH
STN PM2.5 (selected)
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Data Completion VISTAS sites
2004 ?
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Light Extinction on 20 Haziest Days - IMPROVE
2000 - 2003
250
200
150
Extinction (Mm-1)
100
50
0
Sipsey, AL
Everglades, FL
Saint Marks, FL
Cohutta, GA
Okefenokee, GA
Dolly Sods, WV
Swan Quarter, NC
Shenandoah, VA
Cape Romain, SC
Shining Rock, NC
Linville Gorge, NC
Chassahowitzka, FL
Mammoth Cave, KY
James Rvier Face, VA
Great Smoky Mtns, TN
one year of data
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Light Extinction on 20 Clearest Days - IMPROVE
2000 - 2003
60
50
Coarse
40
Soil
OCM
Extinction (Mm-1)
30
EC
NH4NO3
20
(NH4)2SO4
Rayleigh
10
0
Sipsey, AL
Cohutta, GA
Saint Marks, FL
Everglades, FL
Dolly Sods, WV
Shenandoah, VA
Okefenokee, GA
Cape Romain, SC
Shining Rock, NC
Swan Quarter, NC
Linville Gorge, NC
Mammoth Cave, KY
Chassahowitzka, FL
James Rvier Face, VA
Great Smoky Mtns, TN
one year of data
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Fine Particle Mass 2002 Quarterly VISTAS
Class I Areas
20.0
16.0
Soil
EC
12.0
Fine Particle Mass - mg/m3
OCM
NH4NO3
8.0
(NH4)2SO4
4.0
0.0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q3
Q4
Okefenokee, GA
Everglades, FL
Mammoth Cave, KY
Cape Romain, SC
Great Smoky Mtn., TN
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Fine Particle Mass - 2002 Quarter 3 VISTAS
Interior Sites
25.0
20.0
Unidentified
Fine Soil
15.0
EC
Fine Particle Mass - mg/m3
OCM
10.0
NO3
NH4
SO4
5.0
0.0
IMPROVE SEARCH STN
Sipsey, AL
Atlanta, GA
Atlanta, GA
Cohutta, GA
Roanoke, VA
Knoxville, TN
Charlotte, NC
Louisville, KY
Dolly Sods, WV
Birmingham, AL
Birmingham, AL
Shenandoah, VA
Shining Rock, NC
Mammoth Cave, KY
Great Smoky Mtns, TN
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Fine Particle Mass - 2002 Quarter 1 VISTAS
Interior Sites
16.0
12.0
Unidentified
Fine Soil
EC
Fine Particle Mass - mg/m3
8.0
OCM
NO3
NH4
4.0
SO4
0.0
IMPROVE SEARCH STN
Atlanta, GA
Sipsey, AL
Atlanta, GA
Cohutta, GA
Roanoke, VA
Charlotte, NC
Louisville, KY
Dolly Sods, WV
Shenandoah, VA
Birmingham, AL
Birmingham, AL
Chattanooga, TN
Shining Rock, NC
Mammoth Cave, KY
Great Smoky Mtns, TN
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Fine Particle Mass - 2002 Quarter 3 VISTAS
Coastal Sites
25.0
20.0
Unidentified
Fine Soil
EC
15.0
Fine Particle Mass - mg/m3
OCM
NO3
10.0
NH4
SO4
5.0
0.0
IMPROVE SEARCH STN
Tampa, FL
St. Marks, FL
Gulfport, MS
Pensacola, FL
Charleston, SC
Everglades, FL
Savannah, GA
Cape Romain, SC
Swan Quarter, NC
Okefenokee, GA
Breton Island, LA
Chassahowitzka, FL
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Contributions to Haze and PM2.5

• Sulfate largest contributor
• Organic carbon mass generally 2nd largest
• More OCM in urban areas than in Class I ( 6
  mg/m3)
• OCM contribution larger if use multiplier for
  non-carbon components gt 1.4 (e.g. 1.8)
• Nitrate, elemental carbon, and soil smaller
  contributions
• More nitrate in urban than in Class I areas
• Greatest impact if 20 haziest days are in winter
  
• Regional contributions with local influences,
  especially in urban areas

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Average PM2.5 Components for Key Visibility Bins
- Great Smoky Mtns., TN
12.00
EC
8.00
NO3
Avg. Conc. (µg/m3)
OM
SO4
4.00
0.00
Class 1
Class 5
Class 4
Class 2
Class 3
(20 clearest days)
(20 haziest days)
(51-80)
(21-50)
(Days ranked in bins and classes from clearest to
haziest days)
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Observed (left) and 2002 Actual (right) daily
extinction for Worst 20 days at Great Smoky
Mountains, TN/NC
Note wmpe2 projection technique will eliminate
Julian Days 122 and 233 from RRFs
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GRSM Julian Day 122, 2002 1200 end time
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GRSM Julian Day 233, 2002 1200 end time
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2002 Back Trajectories for Great Smoky Mtns.
National Park
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Residence Time based on Back Trajectories All
Days 2000-2003 Great Smoky Mtns. National Park
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Residence Time 20 Worst Days 2000-2003 Great
Smoky Mtns. National Park
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Residence Time Difference Worst Days All Sample
Days 2000-2003 Great Smoky Mtns. National Park
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Percentage Reduction in 2018 (OTW-d) Compared to
Reasonable Progress Goal Southern Appalachian
Sites
Percent Reduction Achieved
Assumes Method IB average of 20 worst days in
2000-2003 with monthly RH
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Observed (left) and 2002 Actual (right) daily
extinction for Worst 20 days at Sipsey, Alabama
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SIPS Julian Day 122, 2002 1200 end time
Why model underestimation on day 122? MM5 and
EDAS back trajectories both originate in Gulf of
Mex. Met problems or missing Caribbean emissions
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SIPS Julian Day 260, 2002 1200 end time
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SIPS Julian Day 338, 2002 1200 end time
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2002 Back Trajectories for Sipsey, AL
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Residence Time based on Back Trajectories All
Days 2000-2003 Sipsey, AL
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Residence Time 20 Worst Days 2000-2003 Sipsey,
AL
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Residence Time 20 Worst Days 2000-2003 Great
Smoky Mtns. National Park
Residence Time Difference Worst Days All Sample
Days 2000-2003 Sipsey, AL
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Percentage Reduction in 2018 (OTW-d) Compared to
Reasonable Progress Goal Southern Coastal Sites
150
100
Percent Reduction Achieved
50
0
CHAS
SWAN
SAMA
EVER
ROMA
OKEF
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2002 20 Haziest Days at Swanquarter,
NC Observations vs CMAQ 2002 Typical
Typ_36_3
Fire not represented in model?
Model performance example for coastal site within
/-10 of reasonable progress goal
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2002 20 Haziest Days at Swanquarter,
NC Reduction 2018 OTWc - 2002 Typical
2002 Typ_36_3
20 worst days occur between Jan and Dec NO3
contributes on winter days
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Example Back Trajectory Analysis for Day with
Poor Model Performance (July 7, 2002)
Swanquarter, NC
HYSPLIT using EDAS (observations) or MM5 (model)
meteorology
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2002 20 Haziest Days at Everglades,
FL Observations vs CMAQ 2002 Typical
Typ_36_3
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Julian Date 125
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Julian Date 152
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Example Back Trajectory Analysis for Day with
Poor Model Performance (June 7, 2002)
Everglades, FL
Julian date 158
HYSPLIT using EDAS (observations) or MM5 (model)
meteorology
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Example Back Trajectory Analysis for Day with
Poor Model Performance (Sep 14, 2002)
Everglades, FL
Julian Date 257
HYSPLIT using EDAS (observations) or MM5 (model)
meteorology
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Observed (left) and 2002 Actual (right) daily
extinction for Worst 20 days at St. Marks,
Florida
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SAMA Julian Day 44, 2002 1200 end time
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SAMA Julian Day 47, 2002 1200 end time
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SAMA Julian Day 122, 2002 1200 end time
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SAMA Julian Day 125, 2002 1200 end time
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Percentage Reduction in 2018 (OTW-d) Compared to
Reasonable Progress Goal Non-VISTAS Sites
Percent Reduction Achieved
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2002 20 Haziest Days at Brigantine,
NJ Observations vs CMAQ 2002 Typical
Typ_36_3
Model performance example for non-VISTAS site gt
10 below reasonable progress goal.
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2002 20 Haziest Days at Brigantine, NJ Reduction
2018 OTWc - 2002 Typical
20 worst days occur between Jan and Dec mostly
responses to SO4 and NO3
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Example Back Trajectory Analysis for Day with
Poor Model Performance (July 7, 2002)
Brigantine, NJ
HYSPLIT using EDAS (observations) or MM5 (model)
meteorology
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Example Back Trajectory Analysis for Day with
Poor Model Performance (May 29, 2002)
Brigantine, NJ
HYSPLIT using EDAS (observations) or MM5 (model)
meteorology
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2002 Back Trajectories for Brigantine, NJ
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Residence Time 20 Worst Days
2000-2003 Shenandoah National Park
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Residence Time Difference 20 Worst Days All
days 2000-2003 Shenandoah National Park
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2002 Back Trajectories for Caney Creek, AR
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VISTAS 12-km CMAQ Modeling Domain
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Probable Source Areas for Secondary Sulfate (work
by Batelle for Midwest RPO, provided to VISTAS
Jan 2003)
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2002 MANE-VU Weight of Evidence Relative RPO
Contributions (to sulfate only not including
Canada yet)
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SAMI Final Report 2002
Annual SO4 Fine Particles Response to 10
Reduction in SO2 Emissions from 2010 A2 strategy
usedUrban-Regional Multiscale (URM) Model and 9
episodes 1991-1995
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Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide
Path Shenandoah, VA 20 Worst Days
VISTAS 2018 OTW-d
MRPO
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Average PM2.5 Components for Key Visibility Bins
- a) Shining Rock, NC b) Cape
Romain, SC
a)
EC
Avg. Conc. (µg/m3)
NO3
OM
SO4
0.00
b)
Class 1
Class 5
Class 4
Class 2
Class 3
12.00
8.00
Avg. Conc. (µg/m3)
4.00
0.00
Class 1
Class 5
Class 4
Class 2
Class 3
(20 clearest days)
(20 haziest days)
(51-80)
(21-50)
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Observed (left) and 2002 Actual (right) daily
extinction at BRIG
? Quebec Fires
wmpe2 drops out Julian Days 149, 188 and 191