Rising Temperatures

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Rising Temperatures
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Various Temperature Reconstructions from 200-2008
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Arctic Air Temperatures from Proxies (blue) and
Observed Temperatures (red)
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Temperatures from Proxies and Instruments for
Last 1,800 Years

• The current temperature rise is unprecedented
• It coincides with the Industrial Revolution and
  the exponential population growth
• It also coincides with the rapid rise in
  greenhouse gas emissions

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Radiative and Net Climate Forcing(1880-2006)
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Temperature Anomaly (1880-2009)Base 1951-1980
Aerosols
Aerosols
Aerosols
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Hemispheric Temperature Anomaly (1880-2009)Base
1951-1980
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5-year and 11-year Monthly Mean Temperatures for
the Entire Earth and the Northern (N.H.) and
Southern (S.H.) Hemispheres.(Base is 1951-1980)
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Temperature Change from 1850-2009

• Mean surface temperature change for 2001-2007
  relative to the 1951-1980 base (top).
• Global average temperature 1850-2009 relative to
  the baseline period 1880-1920 estimated from
  NASA/GISS data set (red) and the Hadley data
  (blue).
• The final bold point is estimated for 2009.

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Temperature Trend 1983-2008
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Global Temperature Index for 5- and 11-year
Running Mean
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Hottest Years Ranked by the British
Meteorological Office The Current Decade Was the
Hottest
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Variations of the Arctic Oscillation that are
responsible for cold Arctic air reaching lower
latitudes (negative values). The extreme negative
oscillation for Dec. 2009 is shown.
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IPCC Projected Temperature Rise
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Temperature, CO2 Concentrations and Carbon
Emissions
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Temperature Increase 1992-2004

• The yellows and reds on these world maps are
  positive (warm) anomalies while blues are
  negative (cool) anomalies.
• The greatest amount of heating has occurred
  generally in the Northern Hemisphere and
  specifically in the Arctic regions.

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Temperature Anomaly for 2007
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CO2 and Temperature Stabilization
Data from IPCC, 2007Synthesis Report.
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Temperature Anomaly at CO2 Stabilization Relative
to 1800
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Only Human-caused Greenhouse Gas Emissions Can
Account for Global Warming

• The black line is the observed temperature rise.
• The red area is computer simulations of all
  emissions, including human.
• The blue area is computer simulations of only
  natural emissions and the increase in solar
  activity.

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Rise in the Ocean Heat Content
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The Warming Oceans
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Earths Heat Gain During the Past 50 years (1021
Joules)

• Oceans 145 (84)
• Continents 10.4 (6)
• Earths Ice 8.1 (5)
• Atmosphere 6.6 (4)

A joule is a unit of heat energy
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What Global Average Temperatures Become Critical
and Catastrophic for Humans?

• The current best estimate is 2 C above
  pre-industrial levels is potentially critical.
  About 4 C is potentially catastrophic. The Earth
  is now 0.8 C above pre-industrial levels.
• When the CO2 abundance reaches 450 ppm the
  temperature anomaly will eventually exceed 2 C.
  At 650 ppm it will eventually reach a minimum of
  4 C.
• The current abundance (2010) is 388 ppm and
  rising at a rate of 2 ppm/year, and this rate is
  increasing.
• We have about 30 years to stabilize the
  greenhouse gas abundance by cutting emissions
  70 (80 for CO2 only). Even at todays
  abundance the temperature anomaly will reach the
  critical level in about 40 years.

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WHAT IS CRITICAL AND WHAT IS CATASTROPHIC?

• CRITICAL --- serious drop in food production,
  serious water shortages, significant sea level
  rise, political unrest, major drop in world GDP,
  major animal extinctions and millions of human
  deaths. Third-world countries, e.g. Africa, are
  affected most, including large human migrations.
• CATASTROPHIC --- mass extinction event (gt50
  species extinction), major sea level rise, mass
  starvation, political and economic chaos, 50
  human deaths (gt3 billion people). Probably the
  end of civilization as we know it today.

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Atmospheric Abundance of CO2 and Global
Temperatures
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Possible CO2 Concentrations and Temperature
Increases
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Possible Temperature Rise
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Projected Temperature Rise for Additional
Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)
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Added CO2 Equivalent for Other GHGs
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Warming or Cooling for CO2, Other GHGs and
Aerosols
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Past and Future Temperatures