... Premier Klein on Healthcare, Air Canada Bilingualism)

1
The Canadian Election A Post-Mortem
Presented by John Wright Senior Vice
President Public Affairs Ipsos-Reid
Corporation To the Woodrow Wilson Center
Tuesday, July 13, 2004 Washington, D.C.
2
Overview
3
PrefaceSome History

• Former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien Beats Paul
  Martin For The Federal Liberal Leadership In 1990
  and Goes On To Win Three Back-To-Back Majority
  Governments
• Gilles Duceppe Elected 1990, Becomes Bloc Leader
  in 1997
• Over Time, Those Loyal To Mr. Martin Take Over
  The Party and Essentially Put Mr. Chrétien On
  Notice in 2002

4
PrefaceSome History

• Former Toronto Councilor Jack Layton Becomes
  Leader of The New Democratic Party in January
  2003
• Mr. Martin Becomes Liberal Leader and Prime
  Minister in December 2003
• Stephen Harper (PC 85, Reform 87, 2002
  Alliance) Becomes New Leader Of The Conservative
  Party With Former PC Leader Peter McKay Chosen as
  Deputy LeaderA 17 Year Circle

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Important Elements Towards The Campaign Outcome

• Roughly 39-41 Will Get You A Majority
  Government
• In Public Opinion, Paul Martin And Liberals
  Inherited A Majority Government With Support
  Pre-Convention at 46Post Convention 43
• New Merged Conservative Party Accomplishes Stop
  To Alliance/PC Vote Splitting
• Throne Speech Feb 2, 2004
• Auditor General Report Feb 10, 2004
  Sponsorship/Advertising Scandal
  BeginsParliamentary Committee ActivatedIndepende
  nt Judicial Committee Appointed
• Federal Budget March 23, 2004

6
Important Elements Towards The Campaign Outcome

• Arrests MadeAnd Cleverly Linked
• Former PM and PC Leader Joe Clark Endorses
  Martin, Not Harper as The Devil You Know
• Ontario Provincial Budget May 18, 2004 Deserve
  To Re-Elected Drops From 36 to 29
• Writ Dropped May 23, 2004 401 Election
• Post Debate Conservatives StumbleAnd Again On
  The Final WeekendAttack Ads Concentrate On
  Ontario
• Sunday June 27 Switchers And Election June 28,
  2004 Minority Government

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Briefly

• Liberal Support Was SoftNeed About 41 To Form A
  Majority GovernmentGoverning Party Often Loses
  About 5 Points During A Campaign
• Paul Martin Talked About The Democratic
  Deficit, Ran As An Outsider As Leadership
  Candidate, Became Mad As Hell With The
  Sponsorship Scandal And Owned It
• Martin Asks For Choice Which Kind Of Canada Do
  You Want?Choice Between Conservative Pro-U.S.,
  Healthcare Hidden Agenda And Service Reducing Tax
  Cuts or
• Liberals To Protect Medicare, Restore Trust and
  Integrity, Support Cities/Protect Citizens In
  Charter of Rights
• Ballot Trust Them With Your Money and Pledge Vs.
  Trust Them With Your Values

8

• Sponsorship Scandal Severely Damaged Liberals In
  QuebecAlso Unpopular Provincial Liberal
  Government
• Scandal Plagues Martin Can You Believe What He
  Says? Gives Drive To Demand Better Conservative
  Campaign
• Focus On OntarioWhere Provincial Budget Angers
  VotersViolates Trust (Broken Promises/Residual
  of Sponsorship Program)
• Gaffes By Conservatives Hidden Agenda Label
  (Abortion, Courts, Premier Klein on Healthcare,
  Air Canada Bilingualism) Personal Attack on
  Martin re Pornography (Personal and Extreme),
  And Boasting of Majority (With Transition
  Team), West Back In Drivers Seat..Withering
  Attack Ads In Ontario In Final Days
• All Help to Push About 225,000 Last Minute
  Ontario Voters To Support Liberals
  (Switchers)Liberals Save 20-25 Seats There and
  10 In Montreal

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Briefly

• Not Much Change in The Numbers Overall Except In
  Wary Ontario And Federalist Montreal Both Who
  Showed Up At The Last Minute
• Liberals Went From 165 to135 Seats (155 Needed
  For Majority)Conservatives From 73 to 99, Bloc
  From 33 to 54, NDP From 14 to 191 Independent
• 9th Minority Since 1921, Last In 1979Of the
  Previous 8, Length Averages 18 Months and 7/8
  Have Presiding PM Get Majority Next

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The Set Up
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Party Strengths Predictable Demographics

• Conservatives
• Rural
• College/technical
• Middle-aged and older
• Male
• More affluent
• Liberals
• Urban
• University educated
• 18-34 years of age
• More affluent

• NDP
• Female
• B.Q.
• Less affluent
• Francophones
• Green Party
• 18-34 years of age
• 30-60K

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The Conservatives
13
Core Conservatives Likelihood of Voting for a
NEW MERGED Conservative Party of Canada
As you may know, the Canadian Alliance and the
Progressive Conservative party have announced a
plan to merge the two parties into a single new
Conservative Party of Canada. Setting aside what
you know or think about the federal Progressive
Conservative party and the Canadian Alliance
Party, how likely would you be to vote for the
new Conservative Party of Canada in the next
federal election?
14
Soft Torys Likelihood of Voting for a NEW
MERGED Conservative Party of Canada
As you may know, the Canadian Alliance and the
Progressive Conservative party have announced a
plan to merge the two parties into a single new
Conservative Party of Canada. Setting aside what
you know or think about the federal Progressive
Conservative party and the Canadian Alliance
Party, how likely would you be to vote for the
new Conservative Party of Canada in the next
federal election?
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Likelihood of voting for a NEW MERGED
Conservative Party of Canada
As you may know, the Canadian Alliance and the
Progressive Conservative party have announced a
plan to merge the two parties into a single new
Conservative Party of Canada. Setting aside what
you know or think about the federal Progressive
Conservative party and the Canadian Alliance
Party, how likely would you be to vote for the
new Conservative Party of Canada in the next
federal election?
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The New Conservative Party Is Just The Alliance
Taking Over The Progressive Conservative Party
And Theyll Have The Same Problems Attracting
Voters In Ontario And Quebec That They Had
Before.
Id like to know if you strongly agree, somewhat
agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree
with the following statement.
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The Liberals
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Federal Parties Popular Support Levels(1997
Election November 2003)
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a federal
election were held tomorrow, which of the
following parties candidates would you,
yourself, be most likely to support?
As of December 2002, the Green Party was offered
to respondents as an aided option. Thus the
current 9 other mentions consists of 6 who
chose the Green Party.
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Social Issues, Not Economic Issues, Rule The
Attention Agenda...
Sept 03 (n1,000, data collected on the
Ipsos-Reid Express) Economic Taxes 6, Jobs 5,
Economy 10, DebtDeficit 10 Social Health
42, Education 18, Poverty 6, Environment 7,
Crime 4 Unity National Unity Quebec/West
2 International/Terrorism Terrorism 13,
Immigration 3, Military 6, International
Issues 5
Net total responses to the question What issues
should receive the greatest attention from
Canadas leaders?
20
Opinions of Paul Martin Just Before The AGs
Report Showed He Was In The Right Range For
Potential Majority Support. But No MartinMania
Note January 15th
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The Polls
22
Most Important Issue For The Election
CampaignHealthcare Most VisibleTrust Visceral
CIRE May 11-13 14-17, 2004 N2004
And, what for you personally, is the most
important issue in the federal election campaign?
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The Top-line At The End of The Campaign Appeared
Too Close To CallThat Was 5 Days Before The
Vote
(Percentage of respondents)
2004
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a federal
election were held tomorrow, which of the
following parties candidates would you,
yourself, be most likely to support?
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But, On Election Day, Using Actual Comparative
Results, Ontario And Quebec (Montreal) Were Key

Notes Final release Friday, June 25, 2004.
Polling conducted Monday, June 21 Wednesday,
June 23, 2004. 2,000 Sample. Margin of error
2.2 Final Release, Friday, June 25, 2004.
Polling conducted Monday, June 21 Wednesday,
June 23, 2004. 800 Sample. Margin of error
3.5 Elections Canada results as at
Wednesday, June 30, 2004. Elections Canada
results as at Wednesday, June 30, 2004. Regional
Average.
25
With Last Minute Voters In Ontario Crucial To The
VictoryOvernight Tracking, Ontario, End of
Campaign

26
Overnight Tracking, Ontario, End of Campaign
No Interviews

27
The Outcome
28
Actual Seats WonLiberal Minority Canadas Only
National Party
29
Actual Seats WonSeen Another Way With The Impact
of Ontario and Quebec
(Seats)
(Provinces/Territories)
30
Preferred Minority-Led Government Anybody But
The Bloc
CIRE June 21-23, 2004 N2004
31
Going Forward
32
Going Forward

• Message Or Mandate? First Stage of An Ouster or
  First Stage of Conditional Renewal?
• No MartinManiaThe Scandal Had An Impact But
  Disappointment In Him Too6.7 Points In Ontario
  The Other Way and This Would Have Been A
  Different StoryA Default Vote
• Martin Will Select His New Cabinet Next Week (By
  July 19)A Mix of Newcomers and Steadfast
  Ministers, Regionally AttunedHealing
• What Is The Agenda?
• Healthcare Meeting July 28-30th
• Conservative Policy Convention Put Off Until
  Spring
• Not Likely Another Election For Two YearsBut, It
  Is A Minority
• Case By Case Missile Defense Lib/Con?

33
Going Forward

• Bloc Referendum a Provincial IssueNext Quebec
  Election Likely 2006Voting On Quebecs
  InterestsFederal Staffing Money Used To Help PQ
  in Quebec Defeat Charest?
• Harper and Conservatives More Progressive?
  Opportunity To Show Him and His Troops,
  Especially In Ontario, Not Demons With 24 Seats
  in Ontario Two Years Critical To Fashion New
  Party Persona, Make Inroads In QuebecIts Not
  About Uniting The Right Its About Uniting The
  CenterAnd Being A True Alternative
• Liberals Can You Trust Them With Your Money And
  Do The Get The Integrity Thing? Conservatives
  Can You Trust them With Your Values?Conservatives
  and Health Care?
• NDP Influence Expectation Diminished But Still A
  PlayerHealth, CitiesInfluence More Intellectual
  Than Political

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Going Forward

• The U.S. Negative Attitudes Not About
  AmericansIts About The Bush Administration
• Martin Has To Tread Carefully Remember Two
  Parties That Can Defeat The Government Are
  Hostile Towards The U.S. The NDP (Openly) and
  The Bloc (Conditionally)
• Martin Also Needs Some Movement The NAFTA
  Musings/ Softwood Lumber/Mad Cow
• G-20
• Canadians Will Watch US Election CloselyKerry
  Protectionism?
• New Ambassador???

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