Document-Query Unification as a Coordination Game

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Document-Query Unification as a Coordination Game

• David Bodoff
• University of Haifa
• Graduate School of Management
• With partial support from Caesarea Rothschild
  Institute (CRI)

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Project Status

• Project begun in 2006
• Papers now under review, preparation, etc.
• Hint of a money-making idea?
• Experimental Economics is expensive
• Especially research where unit of analysis is
  group

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kennel? puppies?
SYSTEM
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SYSTEM
kennel
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puppies
kennel
SYSTEM
dog kennel
puppies
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puppies
kennel
SYSTEM
dog kennel
dog kennel
puppies
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Huh? Just that? I think I should try puppies
puppies
SYSTEM
dog kennel
dog kennel
puppies
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puppies
puppies
SYSTEM
dog kennel
puppies
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puppies
SYSTEM
puppies
dog kennel
puppies
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AUTHOR or ADVERTISER
SYSTEM
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I think the word puppies will be used by
interested searchers
AUTHOR or ADVERTISER
SYSTEM
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(No Transcript)
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I think the word puppies will be used by
interested searchers
AUTHOR or ADVERTISER
SEARCHER
I think the word kennel will be used in
relevant sites
SYSTEM
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puppies
AUTHOR or ADVERTISER
SEARCHER
kennel
SYSTEM
!! NO RESULT? !!
!! NO HIT ? !!
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puppies
Hmm Better try kennel
SEARCHER
kennel
Hmm Better try puppies
SYSTEM
!! NO RESULT? !!
!! NO HIT ? !!
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puppies
AUTHOR or ADVERTISER
SEARCHER
kennel
SYSTEM
!! HUH ?? NO RESULTS AGAIN ??
!! HUH? NO HITS AGAIN??
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puppies
AUTHOR or ADVERTISER
SEARCHER
kennel
SYSTEM
!! HUH ?? NO RESULTS AGAIN ??
!! HUH? NO HITS AGAIN??
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puppies
AUTHOR or ADVERTISER
SEARCHER
kennel
SYSTEM
!! HUH ?? NO RESULTS AGAIN ??
!! HUH? NO HITS AGAIN??
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kennel
puppies
puppies
kennel
kennel
puppies
puppies
kennel
kennel
puppies
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Research Questions

• Will the players learn to match over time? Does a
  terminological convention emerge?
• What are the factors that determine which term
  will emerge as the convention?

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Game 1

• The Basic Game

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kennel
puppies
puppies
kennel
kennel
puppies
puppies
kennel
kennel
puppies
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kennel
puppies
puppies
kennel
kennel
puppies
puppies
kennel
kennel
puppies
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kennel
puppies
_at_!GRRR
puppies
kennel
match
kennel
_at_!GRRR
puppies
match
puppies
kennel
_at_!GRRR
kennel
puppies
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hmmm
hmmmm
hmmm
hmmm
hmmm
hmmmm
hmmmm
hmmm
hmmm
hmmmm
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kennel
puppies
kennel
puppies
kennel
puppies
kennel
kennel
puppies
puppies
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kennel
puppies
_at_!GRRR
kennel
puppies
_at_!GRRR
match
kennel
puppies
_at_!GRRR
kennel
kennel
_at_!GRRR
puppies
puppies
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hmmm
hmmmm
hmmm
hmmm
hmmm
hmmmm
hmmmm
hmmm
hmmm
hmmmm
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hmmm
hmmm
hmmmm
hmmm
hmmmm
hmmm
hmmmm
hmmmm
hmmm
PUPPIES!
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Theory

• Convention Game (van Huyck)
• Found that convention emerges
• Which choice emerges as convention? Whichever one
  begins as more popular

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Theories

• Learning
• Individual (Erev and Roth)
• Evolutionary (van Huyck)
• Conventions e.g. driving on right side (Lewis)
• Database Schema Matching, Knowledge Exchange
• Artificial Intelligence Language learning by
  robots

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Experiment

• 30 rounds per text
• Everyone is shown the text, and two possible
  keywords
• Each of 30 rounds
• Action Each player must choose of the two
  keywords
• Feedback Matched partner or not?

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Experiment Action

• It is possible to buy puppies at a dog kennel
• Choose one of these two keywords to represent
  this text
• puppies
• kennel

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Experiment Feedback
You chose kennel Your partner chose
puppies You get 0 points
You chose puppies Your partner chose
puppies You get 1 point
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Experiment Round 2 Action

• It is possible to buy puppies at a dog kennel
• Choose one of these two keywords to represent
  this text
• puppies
• kennel

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Experiment Round 2 Feedback
You chose kennel Your partner chose
puppies You get 0 points
You chose kennel Your partner chose
kennel You get 1 point
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puppies
It is possible to buy puppies at a dog kennel
kennel
Time
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puppies
It is possible to buy puppies at a dog kennel
kennel
Time
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puppies
It is possible to buy puppies at a dog kennel
kennel
Time
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puppies
It is possible to buy puppies at a dog kennel
kennel
Time
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puppies
It is possible to buy puppies at a dog kennel
kennel
Time
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Typical Results
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Key Points So Far

• Which term is more successful for search and for
  advertising? This changes over time
• One term will emerge as winner convention
• Which term will be the winner? Depends on whole
  group (see next slide)

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It is possible to buy puppies at a dog kennel
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Game 2

• The Separation Game

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The separation game

• Evolution of terms for one topic, depends on
  evolution of terms for other topics!

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WORDS
TOPIC
puppies
It is possible to buy puppies at a dog kennel
It is possible to store dogs at a dog kennel
kennel
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WORDS
TOPIC
puppies
It is possible to buy puppies at a dog kennel
It is possible to store dogs at a dog kennel
kennel
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(No Transcript)
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Typical Results
GARLIC
CHOLESTEROL
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Results

• Which term is more successful for search and for
  advertising? This changes over time
• One term will emerge as winner
• Which term will be the winner?
• Depends (positively) on fraction of players
  (including you) that use that term at beginning
• Depends (negatively) on whether that term is
  occupied by another topic that has no choice

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A place to buy new dog
Looks like kennel will win
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Subject A place to buy new dog
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Subject A place to buy new dog
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Subject A place to watch my dog
Looks like kennel must win here so,
puppies will win here
Subject A place to buy new dog
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Take-aways

• Which word will be used?
• Evolving
• Probably one term will eventually dominate
• Which term? Depends on starting popularity,
  depends on separation from other related
  items/topics
• General Models of e-business must refer to
  theories of language usage and (language)
  learning

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Making Money Options?

• If I can predict which keyword is going to be
  more popular (to advertise on a given topic) in
  the future, then I can make money
• Example
• Today, say it costs 1 to advertise on garlic.
  But I foresee that that term will fall, while
  cholesterol will rise.
• So, I sell you a contract for 1 per garlic.
  But over time, it will cost me less.