National Statistics Institute of Chile: Official Short Term Indicators

1
National Statistics Institute of Chile Official
Short Term IndicatorsReflection of Economic
Reality
National Statistics Institute of Chile NSI CHILE

2
OUTLINE NSI Chile

• Short Term Economic Activity Indicators national
  representativeness
• NSI Chile measures monthly levels (quantities)
  of production and real sales of the following
  economic sectors
• Mining (Copper), Commerce, Manufacturing,
  Supermarkets (Food products, beverages and
  tobacco), Electricity, gas and water supply,
  construction and agriculture (planting
  intentions).
• This way we can closely observe any change of
  trend in the series and calculate monthly, annual
  and accumulated variations.
• Consumer Index Price
• Make an effort to update the basket which
  measures the price index
• The price index is an essential input for
  monetary and fiscal policy
• The price index is essential to deflate nominal
  values, which measure sales
• Include ICT prices in the measurement( Software,
  Computing equipment, Communications equipment)
• National Employment Survey 9 economic sectors
• NSI Chile measures monthly labor market and it
  is a household survey. Measures unemployment and
  number of employed by economic activity. It has
  national and regional representativeness
• Regional Economic Activity Indicators
• This is a quarterly Laspeyres index that
  measures trend of economic activity in the
  various geographical divisions of the country
  called regions.

3
Short Term Economic Activity Indicators national
representativeness

• Short-term economic sectoral indicators help to
  visualize the trend in these sectors and hence
  the national economy.
• It is very important to measure Manufacturing
  Industry, Commerce and Services, Construction,
  Electricity Generation and Capital Services.
• Have production and sales indicators of those
  economic sectors and products that represent a
  high percentage of GDP.( to assess the level of
  dependence of the economy on the external sector)
  
• Econometric and /or ad hoc statistics methodology
  to deseasonalizing time series and predict
  short-term figures. (For example, X-12 Arima
  Modeling, Local Calendar)

4
Short Term Economic Activity Indicators national
representativeness

• Comparability of Rapid Estimates
• Consistency between official statistical
  indicators and other statistics public source.
• Define measurement frequency of indicators
  monthly, quarterly, biannually.
• Define acceptable values of optimal coefficients
  of variation set ranges to make them (estimates)
  comparable.
• Set or define equal basis periods to all
  countries and for each indicator or estimate.
• The sample size must be representative to
  national level
• Define level of openness of measurement ISIC
  Rev.3 2, 3 or 4 digits

5
MANUFACTURING GDP (Quarters variation)
MINING GDP (Quarters Variation)
ELECTRICITY GENERATION GDP (Quarters Variation)
SUPERMARKET REAL SALES GDP (Quarters Variation)
6
National Employment Survey

• Chile measures 9 economic sectors by Mobile
  quarters Agriculture, hunting and fishing
  Commerce Construction Mining and quarrying
  Electricity, gas and water supply Transport and
  communications Financial Services Other
  community, social and personal services,
  Manufacturing.
• In terms of employment create an econometric
  model that allows capturing the lag or time
  delays the shock affect the real economy. That
  is, how much time passes from that decreases the
  production in a sector of the economy to decline
  employment or the number of employees in that
  sector.

7
National Employment Survey

• This will anticipate future shocks and help to
  create better adjustment mechanisms, labor
  policies of wage flexibility and better
  government programs.
• Lift information about man-hours actually worked
  in order to measure labor productivity in
  different economic sectors differentiated by sex,
  age group and abilities (identify vulnerable
  groups)
• Labor inputs
• Number of persons engaged (thousands)
• Number of employees (thousands)
• Total hours worked by persons engaged
  (millions)
• Total hours worked by employees (millions)
• For Example
• Hours worked by high / medium / low-skilled
  male / female persons aged 15-29 / 30-49 / 50
  and over

8
Regional Economic Activity Indicators

• Measuring economic activity in different regions
  or states in the country to identify
  vulnerabilities, and capture economic growth and
  trends of each activity within each region.
• In Chile this indicator is quarterly and is
  useful information for potential investors.
• It is a very good instrument of public policy and
  helps create economic measures with the needs of
  each region.