A successful integrated convective warning system:

1
A successful integrated convective warning
system
Presented by Jim LaDue Warning Decision
Training Branch Norman, Oklahoma
Workshop in Österreich The integrated warning
system 20-23 May 2003
2
Objective

• To share our experiences with what makes an
  effective warning system

3
An integrated warning system

• A research program for science, technology, human
  factors
• Rapidly updating stream of information about
  storms and their environment from radar,
  satellite, point observations, model information,
  and spotters
• An office with an effective warning operations
  plan to help forecasters maintain situational
  awareness
• Knowledgeable forecasters in the science,
  technology and human factors recognize the
  threats and issue timely watches, warnings and
  updates
• Multiple and redundant methods of communicating
  warnings to the media, emergency preparedness
  community and the general public
• A public knowledgeable in using the watches and
  warnings to protect life and property
• Post-mortem on events to review mistakes

4
Overview

• Intro to the warning program
• Pre-event products
• Warnings and statements
• The information flow
• Radar, spotters, environment
• Situational awareness
• Warning Operations maximizing SA
• Office strategies
• Individual storm assessment strategies
• Maintaining proficiency
• training
• Learning from past mistakes

5
Pre-event awareness
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues outlooks
from 1 to 3 days before the event
The Norman Weather Forecast Office translates the
SPC products to enhance public awareness of the
risks
6
An example SPC outlook
These outlooks are intended for forecasters
-9 hr
-6 hr
-3 hr
-0 hr
3hr
7
An example WFO hazardous weather outlook
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT MON MAY 3 1999 THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK
AREA IS EAST OF A HOLLIS TO BUFFALO LINE AND WEST
OF U.S.HIGHWAY 177. AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EAST OF HIGHWAY 177 ARE IN A
SLIGHT RISK. DISCUSSION... (stuff deleted) WIND
SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND SOME
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE INTO THE
MID-EVENING. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO
A SQUALL LINE LATER THIS EVENING...THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.
Location of the moderate risk in Normans area
Weather discussion
Call to action
8
SPC watch Threat imminent
Issued before storms mature Valid for 6 hrs
Local offices disseminate which counties are
included in the watch Spotters are activated
-9 hr
-6 hr
-3 hr
-0 hr
3hr
9
Warning Operations

• Severe Tstm
• gt2cm hail
• gt25 m/s
• Valid 1 hr
• Tornado
• Radar/spotter indications
• Valid lt1hr
• Flash flood
• Life threatening flood
• Spotter reports
• Valid gt2 hr

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Warning Operations
11
Warning geometry

• The warning is drafted with latitude/longitude
  vertices

12
Warning geometry
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORMAN OK 415 PM CDT MON MAY 3 1999 THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... COMANCHE COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA UNTIL 500 PM CDT AT 415
PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LAWTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. LOCATIONS
IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CACHE...ELGIN...FLETCHERFO
RT ILL...GERONIMO...LAWTON...MEDICINE
PARK...MEERS AND STERLING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 60 MPH ARE
LIKELY. LAT...LON 3454 9868 3447 9842 3454 9817
3485 9810 3483 9862
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Warning geometry

• Most users refer to the political boundaries for
  which the warning has been issued
• The body of the warning specify which towns are
  in the path
• And expected wind and hail size
• All warnings are tone alerted on weather radio

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Warning geometry

• The warning is followed by severe weather
  statements describing the progress of the warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE NORMAN OK 421 PM CDT MON MAY 3 1999 AT
420 PM QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN LAWTON.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR COMANCHE COUNTY UNTIL 5 PM. LAT...LON 3454
9868 3447 9842 3454 9817 3485 9810 3483 9862
15
Experimental warning products
Significant weather advisory or pre-warning
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Experimental Warning Products
WARNING DECISION UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORMAN OK 345 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003 THIS
WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. NORTHEAST COMANCHE COUNTY
STORM IS STRENGTHENING AND POLARIMENTRIC RADAR
DATA (ZDR) FROM NSSL SUGGESTS LIQUID WATER ABOVE
FREEZING LEVEL INDICATIVE OF STRENGTHENING
UPDRAFT. NOW LOOKING CAREFULLY FOR COLUMN OF
HIGH Z (gt50 DBZ) BETWEEN 15-30 KFT. THIS MAY BE
AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL. NOTE THIS IS AN
EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT MEANT TO INCREASE
INFORMATION EXCHANGE ON THE STORM SCALE.
17
Local Storm Reports

• Required to relay all incoming storm reports
  immediately

LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORMAN OK 1025 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2003 TIME
(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE
...EVENT/REMARKS... ....COUNTY
LOCATION.... 1040 PM 5 E STRINGTOWN
OK .88 INCH HAIL 05/06/03
ATOKA PUBLIC REPORTED
HAIL
COVERED THE GROUND.
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Other Warning operations tasks

• Relay all warnings on the National Warning System
  (NAWAS)
• All products are related out to spotters via
  amateur radio networks
• Some offices also relay warnings out via pager
  services
• Emergency managers in populated areas receive
  personal phone calls from NWS personel when
  warnings are issued
• Some offices use instant messaging to describe
  their thought processes to selected customers

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Data input
Point soundings Surface data
Yea
Nay
Lightning
Radar
Model
?
Data
?
Guidance
?
(yours)
Radar
Data
(others)
Satellite
Radar
Data
(others)
Updated
Probing
Spotter
Mesoscale
Calls
Reports
Analysis
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Radar data
The most important input tool for short term
warnings.
21
Influence of spotter reports on warnings

• Warning frequency is strongly correlated to the
  number of reports
• Therefore, spotters are the second most important
  input in warning decision making
• Consider this example from St. Louis
• Carroll et al. 2002 - Research Experiences for
  Undergraduates program at OU

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St. Louis CWA Population Density
People per km2
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Events per 1,000 km2
Events per 1,000 km2
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Warnings per 1,000 km2
Warnings per 1,000 km2
Carroll et al., 2002
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The Norman WFO amateur radio liaison network
A ham radio operator at the NWS OUN office
relays the latest warnings and storm updates out
to one of three networks
WX5OUN
Dennis McCarthy KC5EVH
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The Norman WFO amateur radio liaison network
Managers of repeater networks coordinate radio
traffic between the NWS and local spotter
networks, the media and emergency managers.
SWIRA
WX5OUN
Example The Southwest Independent Repeater
Association (SWIRA) is managed by Terry Mahorney
KB5LLI
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The Norman WFO amateur radio liaison network
Managers of repeater networks coordinate radio
traffic between the NWS and local spotter
networks, the media and emergency managers.
SWIRA
WX5OUN
Example The Southwest Independent Repeater
Association (SWIRA) is managed by Terry Mahorney
KB5LLI
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The Norman WFO amateur radio liaison network
SWIRA
WX5OUN
Chasers receive the NWS update, and may respond
back with reports directly to the repeater or to
a local spotter group
The local spotter net controller relays spotter
reports through the liaison network
146.79 Altus
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The Norman WFO amateur radio liaison network
Media stormchasers and helicopter pilots relay
their observations back to their stations. These
reports are fed back to the NWS via TV
broadcasts, and by amateur radio. Other
chasers/spotters listen in on these reports too.
WX5OUN
146.79 Altus
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The Norman WFO amateur radio liaison network
Acknowledged contributors
EM
Rick Smith, WCM NWS OUN Terry Mahorney KB5LLI
SWIRA Andy Wallace, Lawton KC5GHH Ch 7
Lawton Charlie Byers SPS EM Robert Moose 'Moose'
Ch4 OKC NBC Jay Kruckenberg, Woodward Mike
Honigsburg, Garfield CO EM Putnam Ryder KC5GVD OK
state EM office OKC Gayland Kitch, KC5MMU Moore
EM Brent Myers, WA5NWS, Chillocothe, TX
Police Herb Gunther, Seminole CO EM Dave Ewoldt
EM
EM
EM
EM
EM
EM
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Where media assists the NWS
Get to the video!
Realtime chaser data from multiple stations
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Environmental data input

• Radar cannot adequately observe hail size,
  downbursts or tornadoes
• Environmental data becomes important in the
  process

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Pick the storm most likely to be tornadic
04 May 2001
04 June 2001
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04 May 2001
35
04 June 2001
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Storm Types/Hazards Table
Source IC 5.7 Student Guide http//wdtb.noaa.gov/
DLCourses/dlocFY03/ic57/ic57-0210-2-screen.pdf
37
Lightning data

• Cloud to ground lightning sometimes is useful in
  severe thunderstorm detection
• However, the most severe storms often elevate
  charging layers resulting in less LTGCG

http//www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet2.h
tml
38
Satellite data

• Supercells often exhibit a warm wake downstream
  of the updraft.
• However, these wakes only occur with isothermal
  or inversion layers above the equilibrium level

http//www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ev.html h
ttp//www.nssl.noaa.gov/istpds/icu624/
39
Overwhelming data input rate
Point soundings Surface data
Yea
Nay
Lightning
Radar
Model
?
Data
?
Guidance
?
(yours)
Radar
Data
(others)
Satellite
Radar
Data
(others)
Updated
Probing
Spotter
Mesoscale
Calls
Reports
Analysis
40
And excessive workload

• Can lead to lower performance

Stress/Performance Curve
Performance
Stress
Team Building Associates (1997)
41
A more robust look at events could yield valuable
associations
Percentage of Human Error Mishaps Associated with
skill-based Errors (FY 91-99)

• Skill based Errors are
• Poor technique
• Improper use of equipment
• Omitting required procedures
• Failure to observe critical data

From analysis of Naval Safety Center accident
database
Shappell and Weigman, 2001
42
Aviation industry findings Mechanical errors
decreased, human error did not
Reason Much emphasis on relatively easy to see
mechanical problems very little on human factors
contribution.
Shappell, S. and Wiegmann, D. (1996). U.S. Naval
aviation mishaps 1977-1992 All NAVY/MARINE Class
A, B, C Mishaps
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Its never just one thing

• Latent Conditions
• Training
• Infrastructure, policy

• Characteristics
• Radar( RF, Dealiasing ,sampling)
• Models
• Stability of equipment

• What we dont know
• NSE
• Conceptual models

• Active Conditions
• Teamwork
• Coordination
• SA
• Experience

Failed or Absent Defenses

• Unwarned event
• Death and injury

Human Factors Analysis and Classification System
(Shappell/Wiegman)
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Situation Awareness -review The ability
to maintain the big picture
Only one of these guys has good SA.
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Situation AwarenessOfficial definition

• Perception of the elements in the environment
  within a volume of space and time (level I)
• Comprehension of their meaning (level II)
• Projection of their status in the near future
  (level III)
• Endsley 1988

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Situation Awareness

• Perception of the elements in the environment
  within a volume of space and time (level I)

Same timedifferent radar
Is this what your decision is based on?
Or did you see this as well?
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Situation Awareness

• Comprehension of their meaning (level II)

Perceive
Did you see this?
Now that youve seen this, do you understand what
this is?
Hook echo with 65dBZ in the hook
debris
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Situation Awareness

• Projection of their status in the near future
  (level III)

Perceive
Project
Comprehend
Did you see this?
Do you understand what this is? (Hook echo with
65dBZ in the hook debris)
Now do you realize what is likely to happen? And
what you should do?
Tornado Emergency for the OKC Metro...
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Factors affecting your ability to get or maintain
SA

• Attention
• Limited affected by task priority
• Working memory
• Information stored but easily accessed
• Use of conceptual models
• Perception of meaningful patterns
• Relationships between different pieces of
  information
• Workload
• As workload increases, SA decreases

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SA and workload

• Low SA, low workload
• Dont know anything, dont want to know
• Low SA, high workload
• Dont know anything, but am trying way too hard
  to find out
• High SA, high workload
• Do know plenty, but at great effort (cant keep
  this up for long!)
• High SA, low workload
• Do know, and it comes easily
• If you are not operating here.find out why and
  fix it!

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SA and Workload

• Warnings take all three levels of SA
• Perceive, comprehend, project
• Decision to warn based on
• Knowledge of Conceptual Model
• Recognition of Conceptual Model in radar and
  other supporting data (spotter input, knowledge
  of environment)
• Requires proactive interrogation of base data
• Which is a workload problem if ratio of
  forecaster to number of storms is insufficient
• Key Sectorize (re-distribute workload)
• Assure staffing is appropriate

52
I. What do effective warning events have in
common? Factors for success in NWS warning
events

• Science
• Technology
• Human Factors

53
The ScienceThe more we learn, the more we
understand about some thingsthe less we
understand about others

• Atmosphere/phenomena understood
• Representative conceptual models are in place

Already, some new explanations of aspects of
tornadic behavior have been proposed. They await
testing with theoretical understanding and more
VORTEX cases." Harold Brooks VORTEX-95
54
The TechnologyTechnology is best when

• It has the ability to convey science
• Strengths/limitations are understood
• It is reliable
• Software/hardware designs are effective
• It has a positive impact on situation awareness
  of user

I will need to learn a new set of strengths and
limitations with any new technology
I know about the strengths and limitations of the
88D
55
Human FactorsWarnings arent issued in a vacuum
What are each of these people doing?

• Correct application / understanding of conceptual
  model
• Good situation awareness (individual/team)
• Effective strategies, methodologies
• Effective use of technology
• Organizational and individual contributions are
  positive
• There is effective communication, coordination,
  teamwork

Does someone see whats happening outside??!!
Does everyone understand what theyre looking at?
Does everyone understand their role today?
Did the right person hear that report?
WFO OUN Ops area on May 3rd, 1999
56
A good office warning operation depends on good
team SA
What we all know
What we share with others
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Example A typical NWS Office Layout
MKX operations for outbreak event
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Roles and duties

• Warning meteorologists
• Mesoanalysts
• Radio operators
• Event loggers
• Technicians
• Severe weather coordinator
• Oversees warning operations
• Makes sure workload for each warning forecaster
• Ensures uninhibited communication amongst all

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How to split up workload here?
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Splitting up the workload

• Geographical sectorizing
• Sectorizing by severe weather type
• Sectorizing by product type
• All of the above with adequate staffing
• Coordinator is needed to help split up workload
  and ensure no storms are missed

61
Post-mortems learning from the past
Post-Mortems
Root Cause Analysis
Proximal Cause
Accident Investigations
 
WB-Graph (Why-Because)
62
(No Transcript)
63
Some past significant events which werent as
effective one example

• Science
• Severe box(moderate risk)
• Technology
• Map inaccuracies
• Human Factors
• Applying conceptual model (tornadic supercell)
• Understanding of conceptual model
• Situation Awareness
• Lack of real-time reports (visibility, lines of
  comms)
• Procedures, strategies (storm interrogation
  techniques)
• Communication, coordination (internal, external)
• Roles, responsibilities
• Wording
• Relationship with customer

64
Some past significant events which werent as
effective 12 Tornadic EventsNumber of times
each category has played a role in the 12
events we looked at
All but 1 event had little or no lead time. Ten
events F3 or greater.
65
ScienceThe science of the event, and our
understanding of it, help to shape our
expectations.

• Watches
• Severe - 4
• None - 1

66
TechnologySometimes technological issues play a
role

• Range Folding - 2
• Radar sampling 3
• No algorithm guidance 2
• Only mentioned on one report
• Equipment malfunction - 1
• Warning Dissemination - 3
• Comms, NWR, Maps

67
Human FactorsUltimately the human must put it
all together

• Apply Conceptual Model 8
• Cyclic tornadic supercell
• Comma head tornadoes
• Situation Awareness - 12
• Strategies - 8
• Sectorizing, inadequate procedures
  or RPS List,
  failure to use other radars, failure to make PRF
  changes, equipment distractions (attention)
• Workload - 4
• Spotter reports delayed or not received 6
• Organizational - 9
• Roles/responsibilities (3), Partnerships (3),
  Coord/Comms (3), climate (2), face threat,
  staffing, shift change, inexperience
• Other
• wording, time of day

68
How we improveincluding a review of relevant
WDM concepts(at least for these cases)

• Science (Where severe threat was not realized
  before event occurred)
• Additional research plus local studies
• Requires better data sets
• Technology
• Additional development plus incorporation of
  local applications
• Evaluation of user needs and impacts

69
How we improveincluding a review of relevant
WDM concepts

• Human Factors
• Correct understanding and application of
  conceptual models
• Warning environment which supports good SA
• Effective office strategies
• Warning environment which supports good
  communication and coordination

70

• Simulations are the most effective method of
  training
• Every forecaster in the NWS is required to
  complete two/year

71
Meeting the ChallengesHow do you and your office
stack up in these areas?

• What are staffing practices during severe
  weather?
• Do you sectorize? Use a coordinator? How is
  workload?
• What is your organizational environment like?
• How does the flow of the office support good SA?
• Access to all data sets (spotters, etc)
• How good is teamwork and communication?
• How long have you and others worked there and
  with each other?
• Are roles and responsibilities clear during
  severe weather operations?
• What is working relationship with partners (other
  WFOs, spotters, EMs, etc)

72
Contacts
Storm interpretation and warning
methodologies James LaDue James.G.LaDue_at_noaa.gov
Mesoscale analysis and warning
methodologies Brad Grant Bradford.N.Grant_at_noaa.g
ov Situational Awareness and cognitive task
analysis Liz Quoetone Liz.Quoetone_at_noaa.gov
73
References
Aviation Safety Network, http//aviation-safety.ne
t/index.shtml Endsley, M.R., 1988. Design and
Evaluation for Situation Awareness Enhancement.
M.R. Endsley, Proceedings of the Human Factors
Society, 32nd annual meeting, Santa Monica,
CA Lemon, L.R., and C. A. Doswell III, 1979b
Severe thunderstorm evolution and mesocyclone
structure as related to tornadogenesis. Mon.
Wea. Rev., 107,1184-1197. Orasanu, J., U.
Fischer, L. McDonnel, J. Davison, K. Haars, E.
Villeda, C. VanAken 1998 How do Flight Crews
Detect and Prevent Errors? Findings from a
Flight Simulation Study. Proceedings of the
Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 42nd Annual
Meeting, Chicago 191-195. Shappell, S., D.
Wiegmann. A Human Factors Approach to Accident
Analysis and Prevention, Workshop, 45th
Conference on Human Factors and Ergonomics
Society, Minneapolis, 2001 Xiao, Y., C.
Mackenzie, R. Patey, and LOTAS Group 1998 Team
Coordination and Breakdowns in a Real-life
Stressful Environment. Proceedings of the Human
Factors and Ergonomics Society 42nd Annual
Meeting, Chicago 186- 190. NWS Various
Disaster Survey Reports and communications with
survey team members.
74
ReferencesSome WDTB presentations online
WDMI Situation Awareness and Decision Making
Warning Methodology Office Strategies Warning
Operations in the AWIPS Era Vortex Findings
Techniques for Improving Warnings WDM II NWS
Warnings and Customer Response Team Decision
Making Public Reaction to Warnings Effective
Warning Environments AWIPS Configurations for
Warnings Radar Limitations and TVS Detections
Environmental Assessment DLOC Workshop Using
Near-Storm Environ. Data in WDM Process
Convective Initiation/Tornado Warning
Guidance Radar Detection of Severe Tstm Features
WDM III Maximizing AWIPS Procedures Failure
Modes The Role of Effective Communication in
the Warning Process Strategies for Optimizing
Severe Weather Performance Mesoscale Input
into WDM Algorithms and War Games Impacts of
Automation on Expertise Social Science of
Warnings Severe Weather Probability Outlooks
WDM IV When Bad Things Happen to Good
Forecasters Severe Weather Threat Assessment The
Value of Post-Mortems Radar Precursors to
Damaging Winds
www.wdtb.noaa.gov
75
References
Severe Convection Forecasting and Warning
Professional Development Series,
http//www.wdtb.noaa.gov/resources/PDS/newconvectp
ds.htm Severe storms interpretation guide, see
IC57 of the WSR-88D DLOC course,
http//www.wdtb.noaa.gov/DLCourses/dloc/dlocmain.h
tmlstudentguides Capabilities of severe weather
and thermodynamic parameters in severe storms
forecasting, http//www.wdtb.noaa.gov/resources/IC
/svrparams/intro/index.htm