NASA

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NASA Climate

• Climate Variability and Change Roadmap for NASA
• How is the global ocean circulation varying on
  interannual decadal, and longer time scales?
• What changes are occurring in the mass of the
  Earths ice cover?
• How can climate variations induce changes in the
  global ocean circulation?
• How is global sea level affected by natural
  variability and human-induced change in the Earth
  system?
• How can predictions of climate variability and
  change be improved?
• (http//science.hq.nasa.gov/strategy/roadmaps/clim
  ate.html)

2
Earth System models capable of accurate global
and regional climate prediction
Goals (1) Characteriz-ation and reduction of
uncertainty in long-term climate prediction (2)
Routine probabilistic forecasts of precipitation,
surface temperature, and soil moisture (3)
Sea-level rise prediction
Climate Variability and Change
Long-term consistent climate data record (NPP,
NPOESS)
T
Advances in computational resources, high-end
models and data distribution software are
required at all stages

• 2002
• Experimental 12-month forecasts of surface
  temperature, precipitation
• Fair knowledge of global climate variables and
  their trends.
• Climate models that simulate long-term global
  temperature change with large uncertainty in
  forcings and sensitivity.

Validated ice and ocean models for sea level
change estimates
T
Decadal measurements of ice mass changes
Improved evaluation of climate sensitivity to
forcings
Global atmospheric CO2 (OCO)
T
Global atmospheric aerosols (Terra, Aqua, APS, )
Accurate energy and water representation in
climate models to enhance predictive capability
T
Global Soil Moisture
T
Global Cloud Characteristics (Cloudsat CALIPSO)
Improved ocean circulation models with ice
and atmospheric coupling to improve climate model
representation of ocean heat transport
Global sea surface salinity (Aquarius)
Improved Climate Data Records (NPP)
Knowledge Base
Observations of water mass movement (GRACE, Jason)
Improved space/time scales of ocean topography
(OSTM)
Measurements of ice sheet mass balance (ICESat,
GRACE, Aircraft, SAR)
Improved estimates of ice sheet contribution to
sea-level rise
SAR
Improved assessment of radiative forcing, its
variability and representation in models
Radiative forcing measurements (ACRIMSAT, SORCE,
Terra, Aqua )
Models with improved precipitation, air-sea and
air-land exchanges capable of seasonal and
subseasonal predictability of surface climate on
regional scales
Data assimilation of atmosphere, ocean, land used
in process studies (Terra and Aqua in conjunction
with GODAE CLIVAR)
Ongoing activities

• Model coupling
• Process characterization
• Forcing/Feedback assessment

• Climate sensitivity to forcings
• Predictability assessment
• Technology development

Comprehensive Climate Observations (Terra, Aqua,
ACRIMSAT, Jason, ICESat, SORCE, Quikscat, etc.)
Systematic measurements of certain greenhouse
gases, atmospheric moisture, sea surface
topography, ocean vector winds, clouds, aerosols,
radiation budget, surface temperatures, ice
cover, and solar irradiance
T
IPCC
IPCC
3
NASA CLIVAR

• Priorities that intersect CLIVAR
• End-to-end systems for climate prediction
• Understanding the role of slowly varying
  components of the earth system (e.g. ocean and
  ice) in climate
• Observing system development (esp. space-based
  technology)

4
NASA CLIVAR

• Priorities that intersect CLIVAR
• Implementation of modeling system improvements
  through Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)
• Global data assimilation (ECCO-GODAE)
• How do we best couple our understanding and
  models of the fast and slow components of
  climate system?

5
NASA CLIVAR

• Intangibles (how to engage and provide value)
• PPAI - Climate/Decision Support interface
• PSMI - Process Improvement into ESMF
• POS - Systematic measurements and development of
  climate data records, observing system priorities
• Map CLIVAR ambitions to agency goals, agendas,
  and priorities (can we carve CLIVAR into
  agency-friendly segments?)

6
ECCO GODAE CLIVAR

• GODAE is the Trojan Horse for the sustained
  ocean observing system needed by CLIVAR.Users Products
• ECCO is THE climate thread for international
  GODAE.
• ECCO GODAE should be the source of the
  state-of-the-art estimate for the
  state-of-the-ocean and providing motivation for
  sustained observations.

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ECCO GODAE NASA

• For NASA
• ECCO showcases the essential role of satellites
  in modern global physical oceanography research.
• ECCO develops a framework for describing, in a
  dynamically consistent manner, with error
  estimates, the physical state of the ocean - a
  prototypical climate data record.
• ECCO GODAE partnership provides a means to
  transition proven data assimilation technology
  and applications to sustainable use for societal
  benefit.

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Satellite Altimetry Missions
TOPEX/Poseidon
Jason
ERS-1
ERS-2
ENVISAT
GFO
OSTM/Jason2
90 95 00
05 10
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OSTM/JASON-2 MISSION SUMMARY
Science Measurements
Global sea surface height to an accuracy of cm every 10 days, for determining ocean
circulation, climate change and sea level rise
Mission Objectives

• Provide continuity of ocean topography
  measurements beyond TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1
• Continue partnership with CNES, as on Jason-1,
  with the addition of NOAA and EUMETSAT as
  operational partners
• Provide a bridge to an operational mission to
  enable the continuation of multi-decadal ocean
  topography measurements

Instruments
Mission Overview

• Advanced Microwave Radiometer (AMR)
• DORIS experimental instruments (optional)
• GPS Payload (GPSP)
• Laser Retroreflector Array (LRA)
• Poseidon-3 Altimeter
• Precise Orbit Determination Sys (DORIS)

• Launch Date 15 June 2008
• Launch Vehicle Delta II 7320
• Proteus Spacecraft Bus provided by CNES
• Mission life of 3 years (goal of 5 years)
• 1335 km Orbit, 66º Inclination

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Ocean Winds
Scalar Wind
SSMI/DMSP
SSMI/DMSP
AMSR-E/EOS-Aqua
Vector Wind
NPOESS-C2
ASCAT/METOP
Ku-Scat/OCEANSAT-2
Seawinds/ADEOS-2
In orbit
Approved
Planned/Pending approval
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Back-up
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Anticipated Progress in Answering the Questions
Climate Variability and Change
Where we are now
Where we plan to be
Precise knowledge of greenhouse gases forcings
and feedbacks (sea ice, water vapor etc.). Good
knowledge of tropospheric aerosol forcing and
cloud effects.
Large uncertainties in tropospheric aerosol
forcing. Good knowledge of greenhouse gases and
their corresponding forcing.
Comprehensive earth system models capable of
simulating future climate changes based on
different forcing scenarios with good confidence.
Climate models simulate long-term global
temperature change with large uncertainty in
forcings and sensitivity.
Routine operational integrated modeling and
forecasting system for seasonal-to-interannual
predictions using multiple satellite and in situ
data streams.
6-9 month forecasts of global surface
temperatures and precipitation are conducted
routinely
Enhanced global satellite observations of surface
winds, heat, freshwater, radiation and vertical
distribution of clouds and temperature to improve
modeling of air-sea exchange and low-level clouds
Insufficient knowledge and representation of
processes such as upwelling and surface heat,
freshwater and the modeling of low level clouds
Decadal ice sheet mass balance estimates,
improved assessment of contributions from
glaciers and ocean thermal expansion with greatly
enhanced sea level prediction capabilities
Limited knowledge of partitioning of sea level
rise including uncertainty of whether ice sheets
are growing or shrinking
2002 2015
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Anticipated Outcomes and Uses of Climate Models
Predicting Future Climate Variability and Change
Model Capability
Products / Uses for Decision Support
Comprehensive earth system models capable of
simulating future climate changes based on
different forcing scenarios with good confidence.
Quantitative options for reducing climate
forcings provided to policy and management
decision makers.
Integrated modeling and forecasting system for
seasonal-to-interannual predictions using
multiple satellite and in situ data streams.
Forecasts of risk of extreme events or prolonged
wet or dry conditions.
Climate models that
Projections of changes in the climate system with
sub-regional specificity and good reliability.
-------------------------------------------- Credi
ble, useful analyses of climate forcings and
feedbacks for a variety of policy-relevant what
if scenarios.
- Reliably characterize regional effects of
global climate change - Provide quantitative
evaluation of climate sensitivity - Provide
sources of prediction skill globally
Information for coastal planning and management
Regional sea level rise prediction capability
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Global Sea Level trends, 1993 to 2005 Based on
combined, cross-calibrated TOPEX/Poseidon and
Jason altimeter measurements
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Decadal Trends of Sea Level (1992-2005)
cm
cm
13 years are not sufficient to determine a
long-term trend of ocean change.
mm/year
cm
cm
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• Summary
• Multiple satellite altimetry missions have
  created the first decade-long record of global
  sea surface height for the study of ocean
  variabilities from mesoscale to basin scales.
• This record serves as a benchmark to evaluate
  long-term changes of the global ocean
  circulation, heat storage, and sea level
  variations.
• The coverage by multiple altimetric satellites
  in the past decade may not continue in the
  future.
• The only approved mission to be launched in the
  next 5 years is Jason-2, also called OSTM (Ocean
  Surface Topography Mission).

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Future Satellite Mission Timelines
Mark R. Drinkwater European Space Agency Science
and Applications Dept.
See last slide for modification record
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Ocean Surface Topography
 
 
Medium accuracy (SSH) from high-inclination orbit
GFO
NPOESS-C3/0530
ICESAT
ERS-2 RA
IPY
Envisat RA-2
GMES S-3
CRYOSAT-2/LRM
OceanSat-3 AltiKa
High accuracy (SSH) from mid-inclination orbit
JASON-1
JASON-2/OSTM
Planned/Pending approval
In orbit
Approved
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Geoid and Salinity Missions
Gravity/Geoid missions (for absolute circulation)
CHAMP
GRACE
GOCE
Salinity
SMOS
AQUARIUS
In orbit
Approved
Planned/Pending approval
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Sea Ice (Concentration, Extent, Drift, Thickness)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ASAR/Envisat C-band
AMI/ERS
Drift
COSMO-SKYMED X band
ICESAT-2
ICESAT
Thickness
MODIS AMSR-E/EOS-Aqua
HY-1
Concentration
GODAE
OLS SSMI/DMSPAVHRR AMSU/NOAA
AMSR/GCOM-W
VIIRS/NPP
GODAE
Planned/Pending approval
In orbit
Approved
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Ice Sheets (Accum, Melt, Dynamics, Thickness
Mass Variability)
ASAR/Envisat C-band
AMI/ERS
Dynamics/ Mass Flux
COSMO-SKYMED X band
ICESAT-2
Altimetry/ Gravity
GRACE
GOCE
Ku-Scat/OCEANSAT-2
Albedo/Accum/Melt
MODIS AMSR-E/EOS-Aqua
AMSR/GCOM-W
OLS SSMI/DMSPAVHRR AMSU/NOAA
VIIRS/CMIS/NPOESS C2
VIIRS/NPP
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Sea Surface Temperature
FY-3A, B,.. (VIRR/MODI)
FY-1D
FY-1C
Optical
CBERS-2
AVHRR/METOP am orbit
AVHRR/NOAA am orbit
VIIRS/NPOESS C1
Geostationary sats GOES, MSG important but not
shown
AVHRR/NOAA pm orbit
VIIRS/ NPOESS C2
ATSR/ERS-2
AATSR/ENVISAT
GMES S-3
MODIS/EOS-Terra
VIIRS/NPP am
MODIS AMSR-E/EOS-Aqua
SGLI/GCOM-C
MOS/IRS-P3
HY-1B
HY-1
Microwave
AMSR/GCOM-W
WINDSAT
TMI/TRMM
CMIS/NPOESS C2
MSMR/Oceansat-1
In orbit
Approved
Planned/Pending approval
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Ocean Colour
FY-3A, B,.. (VIRR/MODI)
FY-1D
FY-1C
HY-1
HY-1B
AVHRR/NOAA am orbit
OCM/IRS-P4/OCEANSAT-1
OCM/OCEANSAT-2
MOS/IRS-P3
MERIS/ENVISAT
GMES S-3
ADEOS-2
SGLI/GCOM-C
PARASOL-POLDER
IPY
MODIS/EOS-Terra/1030
VIIRS/NPOESS C2
MODIS/EOS-Aqua
VIIRS/NPP am
VIIRS/NPOESS C1
SeaWiFS/SEASTAR
In orbit
Approved
Planned/Pending approval
 
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Modification Notes(2)

• Mods on 7 November
• ICESAT extended mission until end 2007 assuming
  Laser 3 degradation at same rate from Project
  Scientist J. Zwally.
• ICESAT2 added from 2011 hopefully!
• Aqua starts in May 4, 2002 (Claire Parkinson
  Aqua Project Scientist)
• Mods on 7 November
• METOP launch in 2006

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Modification Notes(1)

• Mods on 12 October
• ADEOS-III does not exist (replaced by GCOM-B1)
• GCOM-B1 delayed until at least 2010-11 (check
  at next bi-lateral meeting with JAXA)
• CBERS removed from Winds slides. Not sure why A.
  Ratier used to have them on his. Is the optical
  instrument used for upper level atmos. winds?? If
  so it is probably irrelevant from an ocean
  perspective. I left CBERS on the Ocean Colour
  charts.
• Modified NPOESS (C1, C2, C3) timelines tried to
  remove confusing am and pm distinction made by A.
  Ratier. For purposes of slides orbits can be
  defined in terms of European node crossing times
  (i.e LTDN) or US crossing times (i.e. LTAN
  crossing times)
• ESA GMES Sentinels 1 and 3 added to charts as
  GMES S-1, S-3
• Comments scalar and vector winds added to
  Winds chart.
• Mods on 26 October
• Update of CBERS line with Chinese-Brazilian
  announcement of CBERS-2B successor to CBERS-2 in
  2006 (following launches of CBERS-1 in 99 and 2
  in 2003, and 4 year lifetime of -1).
• Mods on 9 February 05
• Added FY-3A, B, etc.. FY-3A launch scheduled for
  06, with 3B in 2009. Six sats in series.
• Mods on 5 July 05
• Jason-2 timeline delayed
• Mods on 10 Aug05 (from NOAA input)
• Oceansat-2 June05 approval of design with
  finding to go for launch in 07. OCM and Ku-Wind
  scatterometer added
• SST NPOESS C2 on pm orbit, not C1! C1 is on
  same orbit as METOP
• Mods on 26 Sept 05 (from info from JAXA)
• SGLI on GCOM-C and no longer on GCOM-B1 launch
  2011
• Mods on 24 Oct 05