http:fire.pppl.gov

1
Possible Strategies for a Broadened Fast Track
Approach to Fusion Energy
Dale Meade Princeton Plasma Physics
laboratory Symposium on Fusion
Engineering Knoxville, TN September 28, 2005
http//fire.pppl.gov
2
The Most Frequently Asked Questions

• Q - When will we get fusion energy?
• A - 35 years to a non commercial DEMO
• Q - Why is something so important taking so long?
• A - Tougher than we thought, not enough money,
• various excuses.
• End of Conversation

3
EU Fast Track Strategy

• In response to criticism from various European
  scientists that fusion would take 50 years, and
  the 87 questions from the Bundestag, the EU
  initiated a study in 2001 led by Sir David King.
• Bottom Line - 35 years to a non commercial DEMO
• References Fire Fusion Library
• Accelerated Development of Fusion Power, I
  Cook, N Taylor, D Ward, L Baker, T Hender, UKAEA
  FUS 521 EURATOM/UKAEA Fusion, Feb 2005, D.
  Maisonnier ISFNT 2005
• Excerpts from Cris Lewellyn Smiths IAEA 2004
  Talk, and US visit in 2005

4
EU Fast Track Strategy
C. Lewellyn Smith IAEA 2004
5
2. JA / EU roadmap to Fusion DEMO
FY
2010
2015
2020
2005
2035
2025
2030
Performance extension phase

Basic performance phase
Decomissioning
Construction
ITER program
Satelite Tokamaks And other devices
JT-60 and JET
Fusion technology development
Development of breeding blanket
Fusion material development (inc. IFMIF)
Confirm physics database
DEMO physics input for starting EDA
Confirm material database
Concept exploration
DEMO
CDA-like
EDA/RD
construction
power production
Coordination of DEMO physics and tech. RD
Grid connection
Decision of construction
licencing
- 3 -
6
(No Transcript)
7
US 35 Year Plan

• Requested by DOE to bolster case for US joining
  ITER negotiations.
• 35 years to first electricity production using
  MFE or IFE
• Report generally characterized as DOA in
  Washington

8
Official Plans are Really Slow track

• Its been 30 years to DEMO for 55 years.
• Twenty years since the start of ITER discussions,
  and construction has not yet started.
• As a result fusion gets one paragraph in serious
  books or article about future energy sources.
• We used to have more ambitious plans
• 1976 Plan
• 1980 MFE act
• Mid 80s Plans e.g., Technical Planning Activity

9
1976 US Plan for Fusion
Fusion Power by Magnetic Fusion Program Plan
July 1976 ERDA 76/110/1
Base program only
Logic V became the basis for the MFE Act of
1980. The US Fusion Program evolved from
Logic IV to Logic I - we never get there.
10
The Magnetic Fusion Engineering Act of 1980
Operation of Fusion Engineering Device
(burning plasma and tests of components for
engineering purposes) by 1990 ( 9 years)
Operation of Fusion DEMO by 2000- prototype
energy (electricity production) system of
sufficient size to provide safety, availability
and ready extrapolation to commercial size, need
not be economically competitive with then
existing energy sources. (19 years) Budget
(relative to October 7, 1980 -start of FY
1981) 1982 20 1983 20 double
budget within 7 years without inflation .
- How did we do relative to this plan?
11
Comparison of MFE Act with Actual Budget/Progress
The FED (burning plasma and technology tests)
should have been done by end of 2001 according to
the actual money spent on MFE).
12
External Conditions are Changing
Concerns about energy supplies have risen to
awareness levels not seen since the mid
1970s. oil reserves growing
demand global climate change
Manhattan Project for Alternate Energy- T .
Freidman NY Times Sep-05 Fusion is seldom
mentioned as an important part of the solution
except near the end of this century - by then
other energy sources will have filled the gap.
If a second energy crisis appears, we should
be ready. Fusion was able to catch the wave with
the 1970s Energy Crisis because we were ready.
13
How fast could we find out if fusion energy is a
possibility?
Change the goal from DEMO date to a Proof of
Fusion date. Did we establish the scientific
feasibility of fusion or is it yet to be
done?? What are the two or three key issues
that if settled would convince decision makers
that fusion energy was credible? How fast
could these be addressed? What could fusion
do in a decade? Is a totally new paradigm
needed? non-government involvement a new
community approach We should know the answer
these questions!!!!
14
The Fusion in a Decade Challenge
Make no little plans they have no magic to stir
men's blood and probably themselves will not be
realized. D.
Burnham, architect
What could be done in the next decade to
increase the credibility of fusion?
15
Some Possibilities

• Operation of Fusion Engineering Device
  (burning plasma and tests of components for
  engineering purposes) within a decade
• Advanced FIRE described yesterday is an
  example
• other tokamak based systems
• ICF already has NIF delivering a burning plasma
  within 5 years.

16
ITER and FIRE would provide a strong basis for
Adv. DEMO
FIRE
ARIES-RS
ITER
17
ARIES Studies have Defined the Critical Plasma
and Technology Issues for Fusion Energy
Plasma Exhaust Pheat/Rx 100MW/m Helium
Pumping Tritium Retention
High Gain Q 25 - 50 ntET 6x1021
m-3skeV Pa/Pheat fa 90 Low rotation
Plasma Control Fueling Current Drive RWM
Stabilization
High Power Density Pf/V 6 MWm-3 p 10 atm Gn 4
MWm-2
Steady-State 90 Bootstrap
Significant advances are needed in each area.
Metrics are needed in each area to measure
progress.
18
Fusion Needs Metrics to Measure Progress

• need to be understandable
• need several metrics for each major issue
• track progress against plan
• Some examples -
• Fusion Power or Fusion Energy/pulse vs year
• Lawson, BtE
• pressure, b (which one ? Plasma b , fusion b )
• pulse length s, time constants
• Power densities - plasma, wall, blanket, etc

19
Uncle Sams Thoughts on the Fast Track
I want you to get on with fusion,
and make a major step forward within a decade.