Cosmic - Solar

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Cosmic - Solar

• beyond the IPCC consensus

Francis Massenhttp//meteo.lcd.lu
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Remember
1972
In 1972 the Club of Rome published its landmark
report, Limits to Growth, which dramatically
predicted the inevitable collapse of
civilization unless economic growth was halted
immediately
The only solution to avoid this horrible outcome?
Strict government-imposed controls on just about
everything and a restriction of average
industrial output per capita at about the 1975
level.
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remember
1975
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Newsweek
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The Little Ice Age (LIA)

• From 1400 -1600(?) to 1850(?)
• At least 1C colder
• Probably global, not only NH
• Not uniform (time/regional)

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Maunder Minimum
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Solar irradiance variation
1880
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Be10 solar activity proxy (ice core)
Inverted scale
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C14 solar activity proxy (tree rings)
Red Green Be10
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Solar wind
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Solar wind speed
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Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR)
GCR electronsprotons (90)helium (9) other
nuclei(all elements)
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GCR modulation by solar activity
Active sun gt many sun spots gt strong solar wind gt
blown away GCRs gt less Be10 C14
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Decreasing GCR
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Cosmic shower (here iron)
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Ion density
high
middle
low
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GCR gtgtgt CCN
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GCR and clouds
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GCR gtgtgt clouds
High clouds ( gt 6.5 km)
Middle clouds ( 3.2- 6.5 km)
Low clouds ( lt 3.2 km)
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Cloud forcings
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GRC and low cloud cover
measured low cloud cover
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TSI - GCR - cloud cover
Inverted scale!
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Sky experiment Svensmark, Danish National
Spacecenter, 2005
Natural Cosmic rays gt free electrons gt
clustering gt CCN
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CERN CLOUD project (J. Kirkby, 2007-2010?)
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Radiative heating
IPPC CO2 emissions 1.66 W/m2
Palle warming due to the reduction in cloud
cover 1993 to 2001 7.5 W/m2
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IPCC consensus forcings
LOSU level of scientific understanding
( Change relative to pre-industrial 1750
situation)
high
low
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IPCC concensus ignored climate forcings

• Cosmic rays
• UV increase (10 times TSI increase)
• Ocean emissivity (positive solar feedback)
• Albedo decrease (greening earth)
• ????

IPCC climate sensitivity Cs dT/Sforcings
0.75K/(Wm-2) probably much too high i.e. wrong!
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Dirty snow
June 2007
IPCC lt 7
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Decreasing AOT (atmospheric optical thickness)
AOT is a measure of the atmospheres turpitude at
a special wavelength. AOT 01
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Prof. Akasufo (director of the Arctic
International Research Center)
March 2007
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GCM models unreliable
Model (hindcast)
Observation
Arctic Winter 1954-2003
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Prof. S. Akasufo (director of the Arctic
International Research Center)

• There is so far no definitive proof that most of
  the observed warming is due to the (man made)
  greenhouse effect (March 2007)

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Prof. R. Lindzen, MIT

• Die heutige Unruhe hat ihre Ursachen zum grössten
  Teil in mangelnden Kenntnissen, was bei Wetter
  und Klima normal ist
• Sämtliche Untersuchungen zu den Auswirkungen des
  Klimawandels gehen von einer langen Kette von
  Voraussetzungen aus, und es besteht nur eine sehr
  geringe Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Folgen
  dieser Kette richtig vorausgesagt werden
  Cicerone, Juni 07

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Prof. Roger Pielke, Univ. of Boulder
June 2007
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Helmut Schmidt
May 2007
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Censuring GW sceptics
Question parlementaire 1743
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Web (1) http//meteo.lcd.lu
The Global Warming Sceptic
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(No Transcript)
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Web (2)
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Books
PielkeCotton, 2007
P. Michaels2005
P. Michaels2000
M. Leroux2005
Singer/Avery2006
Svensmark/Calder2007
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Global temperature anomaly (versus mean of
1901-2000) and CO2 for 2002-2006 no more warming!
NCDC (National Climatic Data Center)
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The new indulgence (Der neue Ablass)
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Merci de votre attention