MRPO Technical Approach

1
MRPO Technical Approach

• Nearer Term Overview For
• Emissions Modeling
• Meteorological Modeling
• Photochemical Modeling Domain
• Model Performance Evaluation
• Regulatory Support
• These approaches are dynamic and will change as
  emissions, met, chemistry, and deposition
  processes evolve and hopefully improve

2
Emissions

• Currently
• 1999 NEI v2
• MOBILE6
• BEIS3/BIOME3
• CMU Ammonia
• 1995 Canadian anthropogenic

• Moving Toward
• 2002 Emissions submitted from the States
• MOBILE6
• BEIS3/BIOME3
• CMU Ammonia
• Newer Canadian Inventory

Day Specific Day Specific for Summer Months
3
MM5

• Current Setup
• Explicit Moisture Simple ice
• PBL Pleim-Xiu
• Multi-Layer Soil Model Pleim-Xiu
• Radiation RRTM
• Cumulus Kain-Fritsch
• 4-D Data Assimilation Analysis nudging on only
  above PBL

• Future
• Obtain annual 2002 simulation using latest
  version of MM5 and with water phase mixing ratios
  explicitly output
• Obtain EPA annual 2001 simulation

4
Other Model Inputs

• Initial and Boundary conditions
• Currently profile (v6) released with CMAQ
• Switching to GEOS-CHEM output when available
• Simulations spin up 2 weeks to minimize impact
• Landuse (11 categories)
• USGS landuse
• Ozone Column
• Daily TOMS ozone column data
• Albedo
• Monthly albedo based on 10 years of TOMS
  reflectivity data
• Photolysis Rates
• TUV4.0 processor using the discrete ordinate
  algorithm
• daily rates files based on daily O3 column and
  monthly albedo

5
CAMx4

• CB4 gas-phase chemistry
• Semi-volatile secondary organic aerosol module
• ISORROPIA thermodynamics module
• PPM horizontal transport, implicit vertical
  transport
• RADM based aqueous phase chemistry (same as CMAQ)
• Sub-grid plume treatment TBD
• Platform
• RedHat Linux PCs
• Portland Group Fortran Compiler

Plan to apply CMAQ and REMSAD to specific
episodes as a QA step
6

• MM5 Domain (light yellow)
• 165 X, 129 Y, 35 Z
• 36 km cells
• CAMx Domain (dark yellow)
• 97 X, 90 Y, 14 Z
• 36 km cells
• Lambert projection
• Center (-97,40)
• True latitudes (33,45)

7
Model Performance

• IMPROVE
• 24 hr samples every 3 days
• PM2.5 Speciation
• Super Sites Special Studies
• Hourly gases and meteorology
• Hourly/daily PM2.5 Speciation
• EPA Speciation
• 24 hr samples every 3 days
• PM2.5 Speciation
• March Midwest
• daily 24 hr samples
• PM2.5 Speciation
• NH3, HNO3, HNO2, SO2
• AIRS -- not shown
• Hourly criteria pollutants
• TDL U.S. Airways not shown
• Hourly meteorological data

8
Source Apportionment

• Focusing on source apportionment runs to support
  strategy development
• De-emphasizing VOC, NOX, SO2, NH3 generalized
  emissions adjustments

1. Biogenics 2. Other Area 3. Point 4. Nonroad 5.
Onroad 6. Ammonia
9
Summary

• Transition this year from 1999 to 2002 based
  anthropogenic emissions
• Continue to use our 2002 MM5 36km simulation may
  seek an updated 2002 MM5 36km run from another
  RPO
• Continual model performance for 2002 and other
  select episodes as emissions and meteorology
  change
• Iterative modeling process continually updating
  emissions, met, and photochemical modeling until
  we essentially run out of time for SIP
• Strategy formulation process will be supported
  with source apportionment modeling rather than
  zero out runs or across the board emissions
  adjustments

10
Continental Domain v. Eastern Domain
11
15km Top v 6km Top