The Global Market

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The Global Market
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Light Framing Prices1971-2002 (2002 dollars)
Coast Hem-Fir
Source Haynes Fight 2004
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Interpreting Price Data

• Recessions and economic expansion (housing
  starts)
• Spotted owl litigation caused timber harvest from
  National Forests to fall from 12 billion board
  feet in 1989 to 18 million board feet in 2003
• Reduction of lumber exports
• Substitution of materials for framing lumber
• Increased imports (mostly from Canada)

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Between 1991 and 1996, U.S. softwood lumber
imports from Canada rose from 10.5 to 17.8
billion board feet, increasing from 27 to 36
percent of U.S. softwood lumber consumption. Much
of the increase in Canadian lumber imports has
come from the native old-growth boreal forests of
northern Quebec. The increased harvesting of the
boreal forests in Quebec has become a public
issue there.
Doug McCleery
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Softwood Lumber Imports from Canada
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Value of U.S. Wood ProductImports Exports
1991-2005
Source USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
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Harvesting on private lands in the southern
United States also increased after the reduction
of federal timber in the West. Today, the harvest
of softwood timber in the southeastern U.S.
exceeds the rate of growth for the first time in
at least 50 years. Increased harvesting of fiber
by chip mills in the southeastern U.S. has become
a public issue locally.
Doug McCleery
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Timber Harvest by Region 1986 2001
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Softwood Growth and Removals on Private Lands in
the South 1996
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Globalization

• The Globalization of the timber trade would have
  happened regardless of what happened on the
  National Forests of the U.S.
• Floating exchange rates
• Free trade agreements
• Nonetheless, Jim L. Bowyer points to a disturbing
  trend

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Most of the raw materials consumed by the
industrialized world - including the United
States - come from impoverished countries that
lack the money, technology and political will
needed to regulate their own extractive
industries.
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In the emerging global economy, nations should
be increasing, not decreasing, their dependency
on wood fiber because wood is renewable,
recyclable, biodegradable and far more energy
efficient in its manufacture and use than are
products made from steel, aluminum, plastic or
concrete.
Jim L. Bowyer, Evergreen Magazine, Sept. 1993
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World Timber Consumption

• An estimated 1.7 billion cubic meters (7.2
  billion board feet) of wood is consumed annually
• International trade in wood products is estimated
  at 135-150 billion per year

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World Timber Consumption

• Wood products comprise approximately 3 percent of
  the worlds economy
• Growing population and growing economies will
  cause demand for wood to grow to 2.0 - 2.5
  billion cubic meters (85 - 106 billion board
  feet) annually by 2020

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Ancient History

• Among the earliest records of trade in wood,
  there were various reports of it being shipped
  from sources in what are now Crete, Cyprus,
  Lebanon, Syria, Turkey and Greece to Egypt during
  the period of the great Egyptian dynasties from
  around 3000 BC onwards even though there were
  still quite extensive forests in Egypt at that
  time.

Tim Peck, The International Timber Trade (p. 10)
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American Trade

• Naval stores, masts, and timbers from the early
  17th century
• Just a few decades ago, imports were largely
  limited to tropical hardwoods such as mahogany
  and teak.
• Canada began to compete on the U.S. softwood
  lumber market in the 1960s and 1970s

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Forests of the World
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Forest Cover by Continent 2005
Source Food Agricultural Organization (FAO) of
the U.N.
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Forest Cover by Country 2005
Source Food Agricultural Organization (FAO) of
the U.N.
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Leading Wood Product Exporting Countries
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Leading Wood Product Importing Countries
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Leading Softwood Lumber Exporting Countries
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Leading Softwood Lumber Importing Countries
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Leading Hardwood Lumber Exporting Countries
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Leading Hardwood Lumber Importing Countries
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The Emergence of China

• In-transit processor of wood products
• Has become the worlds 4th largest importer and
  exporter of wood products
• Furniture
• Preserving domestic forests
• Asian free trade agreement

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U.S. Wood Product Imports by Country in 2003
(Based on Value)
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O, Canada

• Trade war begins in 1982
• U.S. companies claim unfair trade subsidies to
  Canadian producers
• Public land ownership Provincial governments
• Long-term timber sales
• Locked into low prices
• Exclusion from NAFTA

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U.S. Wood Product Exports by Country in 2003
(Based on Value)
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U.S. Wood Product Imports by Commodity in 2005
(Based on Value)
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U.S. Wood Product Exports by Commodity in 2005
(Based on Value)
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World Forest Loss

• Approximately 0.2 of the worlds forests are
  being lost every year over the past 15 years
• The primary causes are clearing land for
  agriculture and consumption of wood for fuel
• In the tropics, only 17 percent of the timber
  harvested goes to the international market

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World Forest Loss

• An estimated 55-60 (or more) of the timber
  harvested in developing countries is used for
  fuel
• Poverty is the greatest cause of global forest
  loss

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Forest Loss by Continent1990-2005
Source Food Agricultural Organization (FAO) of
the U.N.
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Countries With Greatest Forest Loss 1990-2005
Source Food Agricultural Organization (FAO) of
the U.N.
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Countries With Greatest Forest Loss 1990-2005
Source Food Agricultural Organization (FAO) of
the U.N.
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Countries With Greatest Forest Recovery 1990-2005
Source Food Agricultural Organization (FAO) of
the U.N.
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How to Meet the Worlds Needs

• More efficient production (underway)
• Bowyer and McCleery advocate reducing consumption
  particularly in residential construction in
  developed countries
• Forest plantations

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Today the U.S. public consumes more resources
than at any time in its history and also consumes
more per capita than almost any other nation.
Since the first Earth Day in 1970, the average
family size in the United States has dropped by
16 percent, while the size of the average single
family house being built has increased by more
than 40 percent.
Doug McCleery
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Radiata Pine

• Pinus radiata
• Monterey pine
• Native to California
• Plantations in the Southern Hemisphere
• Ashley Forest, New Zealand

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ClearcuttingAshley Forest, New Zealand
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As we struggle with what the appropriate levels
of U.S. timber harvesting should be, we are faced
with the fundamental question of whether a U.S.
policy designed to create a pristine domestic
environment through continued and increasing
reliance on other regions of the world for heavy
industrial activity is ethically and morally
defensible.
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With respect to forests and the harvest of
timber specifically, it is perhaps easy to
conclude, in the absence of global or
comprehensive thinking, that domestic harvest
levels should be significantly reduced.
Consideration of raw material options, and
associated environmental impacts logically leads,
however, to a much different conclusion.
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When seeking to protect the environment, the
lack of a global perspective can and does lead to
what amounts to irresponsible and unethical
regional environmentalism. As we enter what has
been called a new era of forestry, we need to
totally rethink our positions and approach to
environmental issues with a global and
comprehensive view. To do otherwise will ill
serve both the world's environment and its
people.
Jim L. BowyerRaw Materials and the Environment
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Questions?