CRPAQS Update

1
CRPAQS Update

• April 23, 2004
• Policy Committee Meeting

2
Data Analysis Status

• Data analysis workshop held March 9th and 10th,
  2004 at ARB
• Presentations available online
• Follow-up meeting in late 2004, further
  presentations at national PM conference in
  February 2005

3
Modeling Status

• TC working with modeling contractors on several
  technical issues
• Expect approval of contracts at May Study Agency
  meeting
• Completing meteorological and emission inventory
  inputs for modeling December 2000 - January 2001
  period

4
How will CRPAQS Meet PM SIP Needs?

• Must address both PM10 and PM2.5
• Must address both 24-hour and annual
• Species of interest include
• Primary carbon (organic and elemental)
• Primary geologic
• Secondary organics
• Secondary nitrate and sulfate
• Precursor species (NOx, SOx, ROG, ammonia)

5
SIP-Related Questions - 1

• What are the design values?
• Where and when do peak values occur
• How many different types of PM episodes do these
  represent
• Have adequate episodes been captured in the field
  study to reflect these types of episodes

6
CRPAQS Tasks - 1

• Comparison of CRPAQS values with historical
  record
• Evaluation of spatial/temporal/composition
  variations between episodes
• Evaluation of episode meteorological
  characteristics and CART analysis of episode
  typing

7
Regional- and Urban-Scale Influences

• BethelDates Island Foothills Fresno Angiola Bake
  rsfield
• IOP 1Dec. 15-18 mix carbon mix nitrate mix
• IOP 2Dec. 26-28 carbon carbon carbon nitrate mix
• IOP 3Jan. 4-7 nitrate nitrate mix nitrate nitrate
  
• IOP 4Jan. 31-Feb. 1 nitrate mix carbon nitrate ca
  rbon

8
SIP-Related Questions - 2

• What sources contribute to exceedances?
• What is the role of primary versus secondary PM
• How well can we distinguish between sources of
  primary PM (fugitive dust, combustion)
• What are the controlling precursors for secondary
  PM

9
CRPAQS Tasks -2

• Receptor modeling with standard species and more
  detailed organic speciation
• Grid based modeling, including tracking of
  sources (CIT-UCD model)
• Assessment of ratios of precursor species
• Equilibrium modeling
• Model sensitivity analysis for precursor species

10
Nitrate Formation Is Not Likely to be Limited by
Ammonia Availability
11
SIP-Related Questions - 3

• What is the local versus regional nature of
  source contributions?
• How does this vary by site and meteorological
  conditions
• What is the role of deposition
• What is the role of transport
• What are local and regional background
  concentrations

12
CRPAQS Tasks - 3

• Assessment of representativeness and source zone
  of influence
• Evaluation of model grid-size and sub-grid scale
  phenomena
• Characterization of meteorology both surface and
  aloft and trajectory analysis
• Evaluation of concentrations at beginning of
  episodes and at boundary sites

13
Transport 48-hr Backward Trajectories at 10 m
agl Arriving at Bakersfield and Fresno at 1500
PST on December 25-28, 2000
14
SIP-Related Questions - 4

• What are the emission reductions needed to attain
  the standards?
• What are the relationships between emission
  reductions and source contribution reductions
• Will control strategies for the 24-hour standard
  also attain the annual standard
• How do controls for PM affect O3 and vice versa

15
CRPAQS Tasks - 4

• Linear rollback coupled with receptor modeling
• Grid-based modeling sensitivity and control
  strategy assessment runs with both CMAQ and
  UCD-CIT models
• Coordination between CCOS and CRPAQS modeling
  episodes

16
Schedule

• Data Analysis complete end 04
• Receptor modeling complete end 04
• Initial CMAQ modeling mid 05
• Final CMAQ modeling end 05
• Initial UCD-CIT modeling end 05
• SJV PM10 SIP Update due Mar 06
• Final UCD-CIT modeling early 06
• PM2.5 SIPs due Feb 08