Threats Today

1
Threats Today

• Weve already covered most of the obvious ones
• computer crime, privacy, software disasters and
  other impacts of software errors (e.g.,
  downtown), ecological problems, employment and
  economic impacts (including identify theft),
  censorship vs. obscenity concerns, health impacts
• also, the problems associated with the digital
  divide
• Others threats to consider
• information overload
• can we cope with the amounts of information
  available to us?
• isolationism
• on-line contact replacing physical contact and
  socialization
• economic damage
• on-line shopping impact to non on-line stores
• In general, the pace today is much greater than
  in the past
• people need to multitask, to understand and apply
  technology (possibly even embrace it) its not
  the same world of our parents or grandparents

2
On-line Education

• Just how useful is it?
• how much interaction between students and teacher
  is necessary?
• do students learn as much at a self-taught pace?
• can students learn as much with a time lag?
• do students miss out on in person experiences?
• What types of knowledge can be best imparted via
  on-line technologies and what types of knowledge
  should not?
• mathematics and problem solving?
• computer programming?
• history?
• language composition?
• science and laboratory experiences?
• Will on-line education replace schools?

3
Some Technology Innovations

• Internet 2
• faster, better protocol(s), more secure
• greater bandwidth to support music video
  downloads
• smarter
• combined with VR (covered later), we might be
  able to replace travel and commuting altogether
• New technologies for processors
• what happens when we reach the limit of Moores
  Law? current research is looking into different
  chemical compositions for processors
• New technologies for memory and storage
• holographic storage
• content addressable memories
• Smaller technologies
• miniaturization combined with biology allows
  computer components to be inserted into the human
  body

4
Future Threats

• And other forms of technologies and research will
  lead us to new types of threats
• What does the future have in store for us?
• Biocomputing
• Nanocomputing/nanomachines
• Computers as used in warfare, terrorism
• Biological computer/human interfaces, wearables
• VR and tele-everything (telecommuting,
  televacations, teleschool, etc)
• Automated safety critical systems
• AI, robotics
• For each of these technological improvements to
  our society and lives, there are threats
• in some cases, the threats might extend to the
  entire planet and human race do we have the
  right today to investigate technologies that
  sacrifice tomorrow?

5
Biocomputing

• Computers were absolutely essential for the Human
  Genome Initiative
• the project was initiated in 1990 and took about
  15 years (to date, they have mapped out 92 or
  more of the human genome) at a cost of about 3
  billion
• The project used (primarily) supercomputers and
• data bases
• data mining
• statistical modeling
• approximate matching algorithms and dynamic
  programming techniques
• All genetic information has been placed in an
  on-line database, available over the Internet
  called GenBank
• see http//www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Genbank/index.html
  

6
Ethical Concern

• The human genome is not yet complete but every
  year more and more is being filled in
• what gene(s) cause cancer?
• what gene(s) are related to intelligence?
• what gene(s) might lead to homosexuality or
  alcoholism?
• Are these questions that people should ask? Are
  these questions that we want to provide answers
  for?
• in some cases, we want answers we might find
  cures for serious medical illnesses or be able to
  correct them from birth
• in other cases, such answers might lead to
  discrimination or worse
• answers to these questions could be considered
  the ultimate invasion of privacy a person no
  longer can keep secret their innermost self
  that which makes himself or herself unique!

7
Nanotechnology

• There are three levels of nanomachines
• miniature computers that can perform some
  specific operation
• consider a machine designed to remove gunk in the
  blood stream to reduce the hazards of artery
  clogs brought on by cholesterol, etc, or remove
  tar from the lungs brought on by smoking or air
  pollution
• disassemblers (or gobblers)
• nanomachines with the specific task to
  disassemble everything it faces into the basic
  atomic elements so that other nanomachines can
  start building artifacts from these basic
  elements
• self-replicating nanomachines
• use available resources to build more of
  themselves
• once there are enough nanomachines, they switch
  from replication to constructing the target
  artifact

8
Von Neumanns

• A proposed form of self-replicator
• the von Neumann is a spacecraft that targets some
  element-rich body
• asteroid, comet, gas giant planet
• The von Neumann has three programmed processes
• first, upon reaching the body, it begins to
  disassemble the body
• second, with the elements obtained, it makes
  copies of itself (it does this while it is
  disassembling the body)
• third, once there are a sufficient number of von
  Neumanns, they use the remainder of the elements
  to perform their main goal
• building something, for instance a space station,
  or terraforming the body
• It is thought that we can colonize the planets by
  sending out von Neumann probes first and letting
  them build a colony for us and then, once done,
  we move there
• because many asteroids are rich in metallic
  elements, a small set of von Neumanns can be used
  to construct a large space artifact over a fairly
  short amount of time (say a year or two)

9
Ethical Concerns

• Disassemblers can make a great weapon
• put them into the water supply and program them
  to disassemble people when swallowed
• Self replicating machines can be used to build an
  army of nanomachines fairly quickly and cheaply
• Then there is the grey goo scenario
• what if the disassemblers get lose and
  disassemble everything?
• coupled with self-replicating machines, the
  scenario extends to the entire planet
• Because of their size and potential for damage,
  there is great concern that nanotechnology can be
  used incorrectly all too easily
• organizations are already being set up to look at
  ethical uses of the technology and researchers
  are being pressed to keep the technology behind
  their discoveries out of the public arena so that
  others cannot easily reinvent what they are
  creating

10
Military Uses of Computers

• Better communications
• already taking place, this should give commanders
  clearer vision of the battlefield and troops
  should be able to receive orders in a less
  confused way
• Support of decision making
• already taking place to some extent
• AI might be used to help with such things as
  predictions (through modeling and simulations)
• Smart weapons
• we already have some, but how smart are they?
  can they distinguish a tank from a bus?
• Autonomous vehicles
• some are in experimental stages (automated sub,
  tank), some are remote controlled (airplane
  drones)
• Battlefield robotics
• to replace infantrymen probably still decades
  off
• to perform dangerous operations such as bomb
  disarmament

11
Ethical Issues of Military Use

• Is it ethical to use machines in warfare?
• consider that it might be easier to go to war
  when you know that your side wont suffer human
  casualties
• there was a Star Trek episode where two races
  fought a 500 year war somewhat painlessly
• would we have been as easily led into Afghanistan
  and Iraq if we did not have superior technology?
• war used to be fought as a last strategy when
  diplomacy failed
• since Korea, war has been used as a tool to
  control world-wide superiority
• Is it ethical to use new technology in the field?
• what happens when technology causes friendly fire
  or civilian casualties?
• is it morally wrong for us to use new and
  relatively untested technology in life or death
  situations?

12
Computers And Terrorism

• Today, computers play a minor role in terrorism
• terrorists use computers to communicate, to
  disseminate
• and security forces use computers to track
  terrorists
• But terrorists have yet to try any form of
  computer-based warfare
• they might succeed in damaging commerce through
  denial of service attacks
• through hacking, they might be able to ruin
  peoples lives through identity theft, fraud, etc
• through hacking, they might be able to spread
  mis-information
• Most people lead law-abiding lives so the
  Internet and the information network accessed
  through the Internet does not have to be 100
  secure
• we know there are flaws, hackers take advantage
  of them, but hackers are not out to destroy
  western civilization
• How fragile is our technological infrastructure?
  Should we be concerned?
• and do we have adequate contingencies in place
  for wide-spread cyber-warfare?

13
Wearables and Beyond

• Wearables are devices that can be worn on the
  body (or inside the body) that act as interfaces
  with a computer
• with glasses/goggles/contact lenses as video
  output and earphones as audio output and cell
  technology, we can access a computer no matter
  where are or what we are doing
• speech recognition or data gloves and virtual
  keyboards for input
• air force pilots currently use goggles as input
  devices (a laser tracks eye motions)
• At some point in the not too distant future, we
  will become cybernetic humans with computer
  components
• this may be limited to interface devices
• microphone in the larynx
• speaker/hearing aid next to the eardrum
• it may however give humans greater abilities
• for instance, memory chips attached to the
  brainstem
• telecommunications interface that might give us a
  form of telepathy with others

14
Advantages and Threats

• Obviously, being able to use a computer in any
  environment can be attractive
• read news or work while you are on the bus or
  going to the bathroom for instance
• the interfaces might make it easier for us and
  tax our bodies less (no more carpal tunnel
  syndrome)
• If the computer provides our inputs for us, we no
  longer need our own senses
• imagine wearing glasses where the computer edits
  out advertising on bulletin boards and replaces
  them with something eye-pleasing
• But can the computer actually predict what we
  want to see?
• what if the computer edits out a siren because it
  is an annoying sound?
• And could we become so dependent on our
  cybernetics that we lose some of our own
  abilities?
• ability to learn and recall because we rely on
  computer memory?
• ability to speak and see?
• Is telepathy a good thing?

15
VR Technologies

• The positives
• realistic flight simulations, medical scenarios,
  battlefield testing
• useful in exploring, providing educational
  experiences
• e.g., walking inside an active volcano or flying
  through the atmosphere for Jupiter
• design walk-through without needing to build
  the item (buildings, aircraft, etc)
• will allow us to travel without having to leave
  home
• Some negatives
• people may become addicted to VR (violence,
  games, sexual activities, etc)
• being able to do things in VR might influence
  people to trying them in real life
• if VR becomes too real, will we use it all the
  time could we wind up losing the ability to walk,
  see with our eyes, etc?

16
Safety Critical Systems

• We already have computers running systems whereby
  we rely on the computer to provide safety
• space shuttle, airplanes in flight, power plants,
  etc
• But in todays systems, the human remains part of
  the system
• perhaps just as a fall back or override, perhaps
  to monitor the system occasionally, perhaps to
  make difficult decisions
• Sometime in the future, the human will probably
  be removed from the loop entirely
• this will require AI for sensor interpretation
  and decision making, perhaps planning and
  replanning as well
• we arent there yet, but perhaps in 10-20 years
  and certainly within 50 we will have cars that
  drive themselves, planes that fly themselves and
  factories that run themselves

17
Artificial Intelligence

• Many people in society fear AI
• they think of the Terminator and the Matrix
  (anyone remember Colossus The Forbin Project?)
• Any such threat is really a distant threat
• robots are not very autonomous
• they have limited sensors
• decision making is largely a matter of planning
  movements to complete a goal and not cognitive
  level planning (e.g., how to carry out a murder)
• in most cases, robots are not very mobile
• machine learning is not a solution to AI, merely
  a tool that can be used in certain very specific
  applications
• Today, our concerns are more focused on
• how to get machines to solve problems that we
  want with accuracy
• doing this with minimal cost and effort

18
AI In the Long Run

• Lets envision a time when machines do achieve
  intelligence
• do we have to equip them with laws (as with
  Asimovs 3 laws of robotics?)
• what legal status will machines have?
• will they have rights at all?
• will they have the same rights as humans?
• will they be slaves?
• is it ethical to build a slave race?
• watch Battlestar Galactica
• what might happen if a robot injures/harms people
  through accident, malicious programming or on
  purpose?
• Will we be able to equip AI with emotions?
• would emotions be good or bad for a computer?
• can we program morality? can we teach morality?
• can computers solve problems at a human level
  without instinct?

19
AI Threats

• If we succeed in AI and hand control over to AI,
  can we rely on it?
• safety critical systems without people?
• decision making systems without people?
• construction without people?
• where is the oversight?
• We will also face rampant unemployment
• who needs to work when the machines can do it all
  for us?
• although if computers can do everything for us
  (and they will not charge us), we wont need to
  work anyway
• all services, and presumably most or all products
  will become free
• But, if we stop working entirely
• will we reach a point (say two or three
  generations further on) where we dont understand
  the knowledge that the machines have so that we
  could no longer replace them, repair them or
  improve them

20
To Work or Not to Work

• Assume AI can be created and we hand over all of
  our jobs to our computers
• if you never had to work, would you still want
  to?
• if you never had to work, would you ever have to
  learn?
• if you never have to learn, why study?
• what would you do? what would most of humanity
  do?
• If we dont continue to study and work, then who
  will be the inventors and creators of the future
• us or our machines?
• would our machines be able to invent/create with
  the same degree of inventiveness and success as
  humans?
• would we reach a certain technological level and
  then stop advancing because neither we nor our
  computers would be capable of taking our
  technology further?

21
A Day in the Life

• You wake up and exercise
• machinery moves your limbs around while you sit
  in a VR suit, watching news, being fed nutrients
  intravenously
• nanobots are excreted from your body after
  cleaning your arteries, GI track, and mouth over
  night
• You attend to your daily work
• in your VR suit, you attend your daily meetings
  or classes
• you remove your suit and sit in a CAVE
• the computer displays your current project into
  the CAVE
• you are working on art, or analyzing knowledge to
  create something new, or you are inspecting some
  item as per your job
• every step of the way, the computer is there
  working with you
• At lunch, you eat real food as prepared by your
  automated kitchen while sitting in a cafeteria
  with your friends
• there is no café or people, this is all VR
  illusion although your friends may be doing the
  same thing so that you are able to communicate
  with them

22
Continued

• You send your robot attendant out for errands
• groceries, packages that need delivering or
  picked up, wares that you want or want to return
• You complete your daily work
• by having more virtual meetings
• passing on your creations electronically
• and letting others comment while you comment on
  their work
• Now, you finally are ready to leave your house
• which is actually a CAVE room, a
  bedroom/bathroom, and is no more than 30x30 feet
• you take an automated shuttle to the mass transit
  center where you take an automated train to your
  destination a meeting hall for dinner, movie,
  or whatever physical interaction you will
  participate in for the evening (this may involve
  more VR or CAVE, for instance, to watch a live
  performance)
• You return home, ingest nanobots to clean you
  over night and go to sleep!

23
Should We or Shouldnt We?

• With any technological advance, we can always ask
  the question
• should we continue to pursue this line of
  research?
• There are clear benefits and threats to
• nanotechnology
• biocomputing
• artificial intelligence
• Since we are at the onset of research into these
  areas, it is time to find the objections and
  ethical dilemmas and address them now
• should our ethics hold back our research?
• and even if we stop researching some area, will
  that prevent others from continuing with the
  research?
• what is the best way to proceed?

24

• "Computers in the future may weigh no more than
  1.5 tons."- Popular Mechanics, 1949
• "I think there is a world market for maybe five
  computers."- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM,
  1943
• "I have traveled the length and breadth of this
  country and talked with the best people, and I
  can assure you that data processings is a fad
  that won't last out the year."- The editor in
  charge of business books for Prentice-Hall, 1957
• "But what...is it good for?"- Engineer at the
  Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968,
  commenting on the microchip
• "There is no reason anyone would want a computer
  in their home."- Ken Olson, president, chairman
  and founder of DEC
• "So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got
  this amazing thing, even built with some of your
  parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or
  we'll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay
  our salary, we'll come work for you.' And they
  said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard,
  and they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You
  haven't got through college yet.'"- Steve Jobs,
  cofounder of Apple Computer