GEMS Global Earthsystem Monitoring using Space and insitu data

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GEMSGlobal Earth-system Monitoring using Space
and in-situ data

• Anthony Hollingsworth
• ECMWF

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Discussion in teams
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Drivers of GMES requirements

• Policy Needs Assessment, Validation of treaties
• Convention on Long-Range Transport of Air
  Pollutants
• Montreal Protocol
• UNFCCC- Kyoto Protocol / carbon trading .
• Operational Needs
• Air quality forecasts
• Chemical Weather Forecasts
• Scientific Needs
• IPCC
• WMO / Global Atmospheric Watch
• World Climate Research Programme
• IGBP, GCOS, GTOS

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Late 2003 GMES Status / plans for Integrated
Projects

• Integrated Projects (start 2004)
• GEOLAND
• MERSEA
• Integrated Projects (start 2005)
• Atmosphere
• Risks
• Water Resources
• Security
• Specific Support Action (start 2004)
• HALO Harmonised Co-ordination of Atmosphere,
  Land Ocean IPs
• HALO Partners ECMWF, Atmosphere_IP, GEOLAND,
  MERSEA, Alcatel, Astrium

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Expected content of December 2003 Call for
Atmosphere Integrated Project

• Atmosphere Integrated Project should meet GMES
  needs for
• Atmosphere Dynamics and Composition
• Troposphere and Stratosphere
• Regional air quality
• GEMS Response Atmosphere Integrated Project to
• Deliver, by end 2007, a validated operational
  system for assimilation /modelling of atmospheric
  composition
• Based on an innovative synthesis of existing
  scientific and operational capabilities
• Every sub-project has major innovations - 100
  RTD

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• GEMS approach Extend European capabilities by
• modelling trace constituents in the IFS .
• assimilating data on trace constituents in
  4D-Var
• using the global system to support regional
  systems.

• Additional variables and simplified chemistry in
  IFS
• 2002 Ozone,
• 2004 CO2
• 2007 20 species/families
• Assimilate groups of trace variables in 4D-Var,
  one group per global sub-project
• Run the development system(s) at T159 partners
  can run assimilations remotely
• Fast access for partners to results (e.g. via a
  dedicated Geant Virtual Private Network)

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Operational Continuation beyond 2007

• Real-time operational implementations will be
  required for
• Global reactive gases
• Global Aerosol
• Regional Air Quality
• Depending on data availability, the Greenhouse
  Gas assimilation may be run in slightly-delayed
  /very-delayed mode
• The Inversion stage of the Greenhouse gas
  sub-project requires calibrated flask data and
  will certainly run in delayed mode.
• From time to time (every 5 years) there will be a
  need to re-analyse the whole period of
  instrumental (satellite?) record, using the
  latest science and methodology.
• 2008-2012 is the commitment period for the
  Kyoto protocol

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GEMS Sub-projects

• GLOBAL GREEHOUSE GASES Monitor seasonal
  variations of non-reactive Greenhouse Gases such
  as CO2, CH4, N2O (CO)
• GLOBAL REACTIVE-GASES Monitor ozone and its
  precursors, and sulphate aerosol and its
  precursors.
• GLOBAL AEROSOL Model and assimilate global
  aerosol information
• GEMS REGIONAL AIR-QUALITY PROJECT
• PRODUCTION SYSTEM System Development and
  Integration, Reanalysis production and Data
  Infrastructure project
• OVERALL SYSTEM VALIDATION PROJECT Validate the
  pre-operational system through observational
  verification of retrospective analyses for the
  "EOS - ENVISAT" epoch 1998-2006

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Duration

• Current (very safe) cost estimate gives a
  duration of 3 years.
• If the estimate is too cautious, the flexibility
  may enable a prolongation of the project into
  2008
• However, some flexibility is needed to include
• partner from the Accession countries
• partner from an SME, working e.g. on outreach
• Please let me have your cost estimates as soon as
  possible

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List of potential Associated Institutes /
Projects
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DUE Project GlobAER
DUE Project GlobAER

• Input Multi-sensor satellite data fusion
• ATSR, MERIS, SeaWiFS, MSG, MODIS, GOES, AVHRR
• Output
• Comparable, Consistent, Transparent and
  Complete!
• Direct retrieval from satellite observations
• Model-derived from assimilation of TOA
  radiances
• Status User Requirements Document currently
  under review.
• Invitation to tender To be issued in Jan 2004
• Budget Max. 1 000 000

• Users
• Atmospheric modelling community (ECMWF,
  MeteoFrance, UKMO, DKRZ, etc)
• Transboundary pollution monitoring (EMEP)
• Regional air quality monitoring agencies (Athens,
  Lombardia, Flanders, etc)
• Applications
• Climate change and atmospheric chemistry
• Particulate emission sources and dynamics
• Background for regional air quality monitoring
• Atmospheric correction of optical satellite data
• Products/Activities
• Global aerosol climatology (1995 - 2005)
• Land and Ocean
• Multi-resolution
• Size distribution PM10, PM2.5
• Speciation soot, mineral, marine, etc.
• Assimilation into models and intercomparison
  exercise

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SUGGESTED SCHEDULE FOR PROPOSAL PREPARATION
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ENDthank you for your attention!
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CO2 assimilation -Troposphere
CO2 tropospheric columns are being assimilated
from AIRS infrared observations. Monthly mean
distribution for May 2003 is shown on the left,
and the upper boundary for the error estimate is
shown on the right.
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CO2 assimilation - Stratosphere
First analysis of stratospheric CO2 shows
Brewer-Dobson type of circulation. Variability is
also much smaller than in troposphere.
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DUE Project GlobAER
DUE Project GlobAER

• Input Multi-sensor satellite data fusion
• ATSR, MERIS, SeaWiFS, MSG, MODIS, GOES, AVHRR
• Output
• Comparable, Consistent, Transparent and
  Complete!
• Direct retrieval from satellite observations
• Model-derived from assimilation of TOA
  radiances
• Status User Requirements Document currently
  under review.
• Invitation to tender To be issued in Jan 2004
• Budget Max. 1 000 000

• Input Multi-sensor satellite data fusion
• ATSR, MERIS, SeaWiFS, MSG, MODIS, GOES, AVHRR
• Output
• Comparable, Consistent, Transparent and
  Complete!
• Direct retrieval from satellite observations
• Model-derived from assimilation of TOA
  radiances
• Status User Requirements Document currently
  under review.
• Invitation to tender To be issued in Jan 2004
• Budget Max. 1 000 000

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