Stark Chapter 18

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Stark Chapter 18

• Population Changes

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Census throughout history

• Census is a population count, often recorded in
  terms of such categories such as age, sex,
  occupation, marital status.
• Demography literally written description of the
  people the field of sociology devoted to the
  study of human populations with regard to how the
  grow, decline or migrate.
• Pharaohs of Egypt 2500 BC
• Caesar Augustus 28 BC
• Doomesday Book 1066 William the Conqueror

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Demography terms

• Growth Rate Population gains of losses computed
  by dividing the net gain or loss for a particular
  period by the population at the start of that
  period.
• Crude Death Rate The total number of deaths for
  a year (or similar period) divided by the total
  population that year.
• Crude Birth Rate The total number of births for
  a year(or similar period) divided by the total
  population that year.
• Fertility rate The total number of births for a
  year divided by the total number of women in
  their childbearing years (the US census bases the
  rate on all women aged 15-46).

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• Age-specific death rates The number of deaths
  per year of persons within a given age divided by
  the total number of persons within that age
  range.
• Birth cohort All persons born within a given
  time period, usually one year.
• Age structure The proportions of persons of
  various age groups making up a total population.
• Sex structure The proportions of males and
  females in a population.
• Expansive population structure Age structure in
  which each younger cohorts is larger than the one
  before it such a population is growing.
• Stationary population structure An age structure
  in which younger birth cohorts are the same size
  as older ones were before mortality reduced them,
  such a population neither grows nor declines.

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Example of France at the start of WWII

• The French had a lower birth rate than the
  Germans from 1870 on The Germans had 7.7 million
  males suitable for military in 1914 compared to
  4.5 million French. Of French males 18-23 33/10
  died in WWI so there were 1,400,000 fewer
  births between 1915 and 1919. In 1933 there
  were1/2 million German soldiers compared to
  190,000 French soldiers. In 1940 the Germans
  defeated the French in 6 weeks.

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Preindustrial Population Trends

• 50 children died before the age of 5. Kingsley
  Davis estimated that 10,000 years ago after 3
  million years of human reproduction there were 5
  million humans.
• The first great population shift began 10,000
  years ago with agriculture. More babies lived to
  maturity, due to more food and a better diet.
  8,000 years later the worldwide population was at
  300 million.

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• Faminedeath by starvation.
• Europe suffered from severe periodic famines
  until the 20th century, 1315-1317, 1690s,
  1708-1709-famines spread throughout several
  countries. In China a severe famine has been
  recorded almost yearly for the past 2,000 years.
• Disease Bubonic Plague, Black Death
• Black Death 1334 killed millions in Europe and
  Asia, as high as 40 of the population.
• Smallpox and measles epidemics wiped out ¾ of
  the inhabitants of Mexico and the West Indies.
• Smallpox killed 31 of Iceland in 1707.

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War

• Thirty Years War in Northern Europe 1618-1648
  only 6,000 of 35,000 peasant villages survived.
  8 million Germans had died.
• The Taiping Rebellion in China 1951-1864 in
  6,000 square miles no trace of human life
  remained. 20-30 million are estimated to have
  been killed. 100 years later the populations in
  the four provinces that fought were
  estimated to be still 14 lower than pre war.
  

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Thomas Malthus 1766-1834 Essay on the Principle
of Population

• Men, like other animals, naturally multiply in
  proportion to the means of their subsistence.
  Humans have the capacity for exponential
  increase (as opposed to arithmetic increase). For
  a human population to double every generation
  every couple is to raise four children. (In his
  day the average women gave birth to 7
  children). Something checks this growth. Positive
  checks-famine, disease and war, keep populations
  proportional to food supply.
• Malthusian theory of population predicts that
  populations will follow cycles of growth and
  decline. He believed that the positive
  checks-war, famine, and disease would keep the
  population in check.

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Modernization and Population

• The third great shift in the population was
  caused by the Industrial Revolution.
• Modernization led to a better diet, with more
  food, public health measures caused the
  mortality rate to drop rapidly. Vaccination and
  inoculation campaigns prevented death. Sewer,
  sewage treatment and safe drinking water reduced
  mortality. This lead to the first population
  explosion. Food supplies expanded as fast as the
  population grew-discrediting the Malthusian
  theory.

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Demographic Transition

• A change from the age-old pattern of high
  fertility and high but variable mortality to a
  new patter of low morality and fertility.
• After an initial tripling of the population of
  England between 1700 and 1841 the increase began
  to slow and stabilize by 19930. Fertility began
  to decline by 11940 US and Canada were at
  replacement-level fertility leading to Zero
  population growth.
• Kingsley Davis argued that modernization leads
  to low fertility child labor is no longer
  valuable, as large families became a cost rather
  than a benefit families changed their
  conceptions about how many children the wanted.
  Most of this change in fertility in modern
  times occurred before most modern birth control
  devices were discovered.

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The Second Population Explosion

• Shortly following World War II mortality quickly
  fell in less developed nations along with the
  baby boom, which was a brief increase in the
  birth rate in the U.S. following WWII this led to
  a rapid population growth.
• Low mortality resulted from a few elements of
  modern technology imported from developed
  nations. Spraying of insects eradicated malaria
  From 1940-1065 the mortality rate fell by 59 in
  Mexico, 63 in Puerto Rico, 44 in Egypt and 72
  in Taiwan.
• The food supply also increased due to week
  killers and fertilizers.

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Lower fertility and Gender Bias

• Fertility can be limited. It is possible to know
  the gender of a fetus. In china female
  infanticide is prevalent, In 1995 the sex ratio
  of Chinese children under age 5 was 118 boys per
  100 girls. The sex ratio in south Korea was 113
  boys to 100 girls.

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