Safety and Effectiveness of operations at Sea

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Safety and Effectiveness of operations at Sea

• F.J.M. Davidson1, A. Allen 2, G. B. Brassington3,
  O. Breivik4, P. Daniel5, B. Stone6, M. Kamachi7,
  S. Sato8, B. King9, Fabien Lefevre10, Marion
  Sutton10
• 1 DFO, St. John's, Canada
• 2 USCG, Groton, USA
• 3 CAWCR, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne,
  Australia
• 4 Met No, Bergen, Norway
• 5 Meteo France, Toulouse, France
• 6 CCG, St. John's, Canada
• 7 MRI, Tokyo, Japan
• 8 JCG, Tokyo, Japan
• 9 APASA, Surfers Paradise, Australia
• 10 CLS, Ramonville-St.Agne, France

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Outline

• Need
• Search and Rescue Applications
• Other safety applications
• Efficiency applications
• Concluding remarks

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GODAE ocean forecasting adds Value added
information for the Search and Rescue Coordinator
Drifter Deployment
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Drift Prediction occurrenceJapanese Coast Guard

• Nakhodka Tanker Oil spill 1997 motivated need for
  better drift prediction, research and development

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Canadian Example
Old
New
Drifter Release
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Australia Blue Link

• Eastern Australian Current Validation exercise
• Drifters overlayed on computed circulation

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Comparison to 5 day drift

• Drifter Validation 6 buoys released in Eastern
  Australian Current
• Drogued at 15m
• Example from APASA/CSIRO
• Australian engineering group building
  support/decisions tools for oil drift, chemical
  spills and search and recue drift

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Impact of 4 D Var Assimilation System

• Coast Guard uses Geostrophic currents COMPASS-K
  (1/4o) currents
• MOVE system use for drift is starting

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Impact of 4 D Var Assimilation System

• Improvements from assimilation visible
• 5 day forecast error under 25 km
• 30km radius search zone 2000 sq kms

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Canadian Coast Guard Search and Rescue Operations

• 5 search and rescue centers
• Environmental data is duplicated in all 6 centers
• Search and Rescue Coordinator can run drift
  prediction locally and create search plan within
  5 minutes.
• Min-Max method used
• Transition to Monte Carlo method makes better use
  of current forecasts
• Environment Canada provides winds
• DFO provides surface currents

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Search and Rescue structurein Japan

• Japanese Coast Guard
• 11 regions
• Central Tokyo data server and drift prediction
• Remote operations from regions
• Data and Forecast system thus centralised
• Both Japan Meteorological Agency and Coast Guard
  run drift predictions
• lt3 days ?JCG
• gt3 days ?JMA
• Monte Carlo method used for drift
• Coast Guard Modifies ocean
• current field based on observations

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US SAR OPS
US Coast Guard uses central environmental data
base server Forecast products retrieved by 45
search and rescue centers on request. Select time
and location for data to download. SAROPS uses
Monte Carlo method. Location likelihood updated
based on search
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US SAR OPS
SAROPS Particle distribution and surface
currents from NOAA North Atlantic HYCOM model
RTOFS.
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The Norwegian SAR system

• Monte Carlo based model formulation similar to
  the USCG system
• Forcing from high-resolution (1.5-4km) ocean
  model current fields and 12km resolution wind
  fields
• Recently upgraded to include coastline contours
  for more exact stranding of particles
• New object categories recently added from field
  work off the Norwegian coast in collaboration
  with the Norwegian Coast Guard, IFREMER (France)
  and USCG

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Norwegian Drift service interfacehttp//kilden.m
et.no
WMS client for simple visualization
Oil spill forecast order form
Menu for drift services and visualization
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The impact of high-resolution current fields (1)
Open-ocean conditions
1.5km resolution vs 4km resolution (currently
the operational model). In open-ocean conditions
the two models are virtually identical
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The impact of high-resolution current fields(2)
Near-shore trajectories
1.5km
4km
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1.5km
4km
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1.5km
4km
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1.5km
4km
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1.5km
4km
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New Development Stranding particles on a
high-resolution coastline contour (GSHHS)
1.5km
4km
The trajectories are highly influenced by the
strong coastal current present in the
high-resolution current field
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Ocean routing

• Shipping company needs
• Security Crew Equipement
• Quickest route
• Stick to time of arrival Constraints
• Panama,
• Suez
• Reduce of fuel consumption
• Solution
• Use GODAE ocean forecast to take advantage of the
  current

Guadeloupe
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Route recommendation example 2

• Example of a route recommendation to BROSTROM in
  the Gulf of Mexico for the route Houston to Pozos
  

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Route recommendation example 1

• BROSTROM Trinidad to Houston

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Route recommendation example 1

• BROSTROM Trinidad to Houston

GPS speed Rel. speed
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Need for Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice Forecasting
system
Prévision Nuage bas (48 heures)

• Coast Guard
• Requires advanced knowledge of Ice Free route
• Manages safety along ice free route
• Asks ships to follow official route
• Coupled Atmospheric Ocean Ice Forecast System
  required EC-DFO collaboration
• Plan to extend this system for North West Atlantic

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Other requirements for GODAE products

• Ship routing tools through Ice zones
• Ice and current forecast for operational
  fisheries management

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Ocean currents for iceberg forecasting

• Mercator ocean currents used as input to the
  Canadian Ice Service iceberg forecast model
  produced results improves on operational model

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Concluding Remarks

• GODAE ocean forecast products
• Allready in use in different applications
• Search and rescue
• Marine routing efficiency and safety through
  strong currents and ice covered waters
• When it comes to ship routing and searching. You
  can do better by using ocean forecast products
  instead of climatology
• Outreach/Interaction needed

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Concluding Remarks

• GODAE products have been evaluated on individual
  cases
• Long hindcasts/reanalysis runs need to be used
• Set standard benchmark data base for surface
  drifters for inter-comparison (include coast
  guard buoys)
• Develop model forecast vs observed drift error
  statistics to adjust future application of
  forecast systems

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Rescueing is a big effortwe need ocean knowledge
to make it efficient