The Role of UNEnergy in ensuring sustainable bioenergy development

1
The Role of UN-Energy in ensuring sustainable
bioenergy development

• UN-Energy side event
• 13 December 2007
• Alexander Müller
• Assistant Director-General
• Natural Resources Management Environment

2
Energy Consumption and Income are Linked
5 billion low-income people in countries with
rapid economic growth rates
3
How big is the market for biofuels? Energy
production and potential, biofuels and land use
1.) Potential based on Schrattenholzer and
Fischer, IIASA, 2000 2.) Based on IEA Key energy
statistics, 2006 3.) Derived from
http//www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2005/Update49.
htm, Earth Policy Institute
4
How big is the market for biofuels? Energy
production and potential, biofuels and land use
1.) Potential based on Schrattenholzer and
Fischer, IIASA, 2000 2.) Based on IEA Key energy
statistics, 2006 3.) Derived from
http//www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2005/Update49.
htm, Earth Policy Institute
5
How big is the market for biofuels? Energy
production and potential, biofuels and land use
1.) Potential based on Schrattenholzer and
Fischer, IIASA, 2000 2.) Based on IEA Key energy
statistics, 2006 3.) Derived from
http//www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2005/Update49.
htm, Earth Policy Institute
6
Bioenergy supply in 2004 (according to IEA 2006)
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Share of energy from biomass and waste in total
primary energy supply for countries with a share
of 30 and above
Source Juergens (FAO) 2006 based on data from
IEA 2006
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Bioenergy and Food Security
9
World population growth
12.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
9.0
0.6
0.5
Annual increments (billions)
6.0
Total population (billions)
0.4
0.3
3.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
0
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
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Food markets drivers of the long-term outlook
Source UN, World Population Assessment 2002
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Food markets drivers of the long-term outlook
from 80 to 180 million people by 2050
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Food markets Review and outlook to 2030
13
Undernourished
Developed market economies9
Countries in transition25
854 million (820 in developing countries)
Sub-Saharan Africa206
Asia and Pacific524
Near East and North Africa38
212 million India 150 million China
Latin America and Caribbean52
Where is land available?Where is the energy
deficit?
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World markets and export opportunities
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Bioenergy potential per region different
scenarios, year 2050 Exajoules/yr
Source Juergens and Mueller forthcoming 2007,
based on data from WWI 2006)
16
Bioenergy potential per type of biomass
different scenarios, year 2050 Exajoules/yr
Source Juergens and Mueller forthcoming 2007,
based on data from Faaij 2006
17
Cereal production and utilization
Year-to-year change in cereal production
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FAO price indicesfor selected commodities(1998-2
000100)
FAO food price index and CRB commodity and energy
indices(1998-2000100)
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Environment and Sustainable development
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Environmental, sustainability issues

• Availability of land resources
• Availability of water resources
• Rapid land use change
• Land rights and tenure
• Effects of agro-chemicals
• Loss of biodiversity
• Greenhouse gas balances

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Process chain Sorghum life cycle inputs
Ensure environmental best practices at all stages
of the biofuel process chain
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Competitiveness by feedstock
Parity prices PetrolCrude oil Ethanol Various
feedstocks and farming/production systems
120
100
80
Crude, US/bbl
60
40
20
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Petrol, US/l
Gasoline-Crude US
Cane Brazil, top producers
Cane, Brazil, average
Cassava, Thaioil, 2 mio l/d
Maize, US
Cassava, Thailand, OTC joint venture
Palmoil, MPOB project
Mixed feedstock Europe
BTL Synfuel/Sunfuel
Josef Schmidhuber (2005)
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Are EU tariffs on ethanol high enough?
Tariffs, prices and production costs for Ethanol
0.6
0.5
P-cost
tEU
tEU-40
tEU
tEU-40
tUS
0.4
tUS
CIF US
/l
0.3
CIF EU
FOB BRA
0.2
MP US Ct/l
MP EU
0.1
0
Maize
Maize
Wheat
Sugar cane
Sugar beet
EU
BRA
US
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UN-Energy as a forum and an advocate for ...

• Bioenergy Charter? Safeguards, Fair processes,
  Accountability, Advocacy, ...
• Policy and legislative frameworks
• Estimating national bioenergy potentials
• Investment commercial v.a.v. small-scale
• Certification flexible, cost effective,
  equitable for small-scale producers
• Knowledge best practices, data, information
• Competing in international markets and with
  technological change

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Thank you