NASA Presentation to Mini-Workshop on Hydrometeorological Products, Services and Supporting Research

1
NASA Presentation to Mini-Workshop on
Hydrometeorological Products, Services and
Supporting Research
David Toll1, Stephen Ambrose2, , Jared Entin3,
and Christa Peters-Lidard4 1-Hydrological
Sciences NASA/GSFC Deputy Program Manager, Water
Resources 2- NASA/HQ/Applied Sciences
Program Disaster Management and Water
Resources Program Manager 3-NASA/HQ/Earth
Science Division Terrestrial Hydrology and NASA
Energy and Water Cycle Program Manager 4-NASA/GSF
C, Head, Hydrological Sciences Branch David.L.
Toll_at_NASA.Gov 17 Sept. 2008
Goulburn-Murray Water
http//wmp.gsfc.nasa.gov
2
(No Transcript)
3
NASA Applied Sciences ProgramA Pathway Between
Earth Science Society
Results of NASA Earth Science Research
Uses by Partners and Stakeholder Communities
NASA Applied Sciences Program
4
NASA Hydrology Related Missions
SMAP - Global Soil Moisture
5
Precipitation from Space
Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM)
Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM)
TRMM is the first "space-based rain gauge" that
uses microwaves to "see" how much precipitation
falls from clouds around the tropics over land
and ocean with unparalleled accuracy. TRMM also
is the primary mission for studying El
Nino. Global precipitation measurement with
TRMM a great leap forward! 10 ? 85 GHz
radiometers 13.6 GHz precipitation radar
(FIRST!)

• Needed improvements
• - Longer record length
• - High latitude precipitation including snowfall
• - Better accuracy
• - Spatial-temporal sampling
• - Improved vertical resolution

6
Hurricane Ike in Cuba--Heavy, but not extreme
rain, flooding (calculated from hydrological
model) and landslide potential (from real-time
landslide algorithm) indicated along south side
of mountains
24-hr Rain from TRMM Multi-satellite product
http//trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications_dir/potenti
al_flood_hydro.html
7
GRACE Is the First Satellite to Monitor
Groundwater Levels
Mississippi River basin
Rodell et al., Hydrogeology, 2006
New estimates match groundwater well measurements
in the U.S., and can be applied globally
Illinois
Yeh et al., WRR, 2006
8
GRACE Data Enables More Accurate Water Budget
Predictions
GRACE water storage, mm January December 2005
Loop
Model assimilated water storage, mm January
December 2005 Loop
Zaitchik, Rodell, and Reichle, in preparation
Matt Rodell NASA GSFC
9
Hydros/Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP)
Mission Planning

• Decadal Survey recommended that
• a dedicated soil moisture mission recently
  selected as one of two new Earth science mission
• NASA fly an active / passive microwave soil
  moisture F/T mission in the 2013 timeframe
• SMAP consists of an L-Band radar radiometer in
  a low Earth, sun-synchronous orbit

Societal Benefits

• Weather Climate Prediction
• Severe Storm Forecasts

10
Value of Soil Moisture Data to Weather and Climate
New space-based soil moisture observations
and data assimilation modeling can improve
forecasts of local storms and seasonal climate
anomalies
NWP Rainfall Prediction
Seasonal Climate Predictability
Predictability of seasonal climate is dependent
on boundary conditions such as sea surface
temperature (SST) and soil moisture soil
moisture is particularly important over
continental interiors.
Summer Rainfall differences 1993 (flood) minus
1988 (drought)
Buffalo Creek Basin
Observed Rainfall 0000Z to 0400Z 13/7/96 (Chen et
al., 2001)
Without Realistic Soil Moisture
Observations
24-Hours Ahead High-Resolution Atmospheric Model
Forecasts
Prediction driven by SST and soil moisture
Prediction driven just by SST
With Realistic Soil Moisture
High resolution soil moisture data will improve
numerical weather prediction (NWP) over
continents by accurately initializing land
surface states
(Schubert et al., 2002)
-5 0 5
Rainfall Difference mm/day
11
Surface Water Mission Concept (SWOT) Stream
Discharge and Surface Water Height

• Motivation
• critical water cycle component
• essential for water resource planning
• stream discharge and water height data are
  difficult to obtain outside US
• find the missing continental discharge component

Mission Concepts
Laser Altimetry Concept e.g. ICESat (GSFC)
Radar Altimetry Concept e.g. Topex/Poseidon over
Amazon R.
Interferometer Concept (JPL)
Targeted path Coincident w/ river reach
12
Land Information System Heritage NLDAS and GLDAS
North American LDAS 1/8 Degree Resolution Mitchell
et al., JGR, 2004
Global LDAS 1/4 Degree Resolution
Rodell et al., BAMS, 2004
Land Information System (http//lis.gsfc.nasa.gov)
Multi-Resolution Ensemble LDAS Software Framework
Kumar et al., EMS, 2006
13
LIS Running Modes
Coupled or Forecast Mode
Uncoupled or Analysis Mode
WRF/ GFS/ GCE
Station Data
Global, Regional Forecasts and (Re-)Analyses
ESMF
Land Sfc Models (Noah, Catchment, CLM, VIC,
HYSSiB)
Satellite Products
Kumar, S. V., C. D. Peters-Lidard, J. L. Eastman
and W.-K. Tao, 2008. An integrated
high-resolution hydrometeorological modeling
testbed using LIS and WRF. Environmental
Modelling Software, Vol. 23, 169-181.
14
LIS Uncoupled/Analysis Mode
Inputs
Physics
Outputs
Applications
Topography, Soils
Land Surface Models
Soil Moisture Temperature
Weather/ Climate Water Resources Agriculture
Drought Military Ops Natural Hazards
Land Cover, Vegetation Properties
Evaporation Sensible Heat Flux
Meteorological Forecasts, Analyses, and/or
Observations
Runoff
Data Assimilation Modules
Snow Soil Moisture Temperature
Snowpack Properties
15
Drought Monitoring Comparison
16
Drought Monitoring Comparison
17
LIS-WRF Coupled Example 20-10 cm initial soil
moisture ()(1200 UTC 6 May 2004)
Eta soil moisture
LIS soil moisture

• Much more detail in LIS (as expected)
• LIS drier, especially over N. FL S. GA
• LIS slightly more moist over Everglades

Difference (LIS Eta)
LIS Substantially Drier
17
18
LIS-WRF Coupled Example 2 Sea Breeze Evolution
Difference(1800 UTC 6 May to 0300 UTC 7 May)
Case, Jonathan L., William L. Crosson, Sujay V.
Kumar, William M. Lapenta, Christa D.
Peters-Lidard, 2008. Impacts of High-Resolution
Land Surface Initialization on Regional Sensible
Weather Forecasts from the WRF Model. In press,
Journal of Hydrometeorology.
18
19
LIS-WRF Coupled Example 2 Sea Breeze Evolution
Difference(Meteogram plots at 40J and CTY)
19
20
Mapping Evaporation and Moisture Stress from
Space Using Thermal Remote Sensing (Anderson and
others)
21
Water Resource and Climate Variability
As the Earth has warmed, what has happened to
Earths water resources? Recent Trends ?
Precipitation Intensity Increases ? Increased
floods and droughts intensity ? Snowfall
decrease ? Earlier runoff ? Melting of ice
sheets and glaciers ? Sea level rise ? Increase
in hurricanes and intensity
38
105
67
393
355
38
1000 km3/yr
22
Climate Downscaling Impacts Assessment
Observed
Modeled
Climate Downscaling ? Regional Climate Modeling
(Left) - Examples from NASA Goddard Institute
for Space Studies (Left) ? Statistical Down
Scaling Modeling - Regional Ensemble
Multi-Model - Percent likelihoods for
Precipitation Temperature Hydrologic
Downscaling - Land Data Assimilation Systems
Hydrologic Modeling (Streamflow, ET, Snowpack,
etc.) - Climate Impacts for Hydro-Power, Dams
and Levees, Snow Pack, Agriculture Planning,
Groundwater Depletion, etc.
Precipitation
Temperature
CCSR, GISS, UCONN
23
Water Resources Program Functional Themes
Projects Summary http//wmp.gsfc.nasa.gov
IRRIGATION WATER DELIVERY Three projects are
currently addressing various aspects of improving
ET estimates for use in the BoR AWARDS-ET Toolbox
and similar DSTs. Focus on using MODIS data and
LDAS/LIS estimates of ET soil moisture.
FLOODS STREAMFLOW FORECASTING Four projects -
NOAA led examining improved streamflow for River
Forecast Centers. - Using NASA satellite and
modeling products for Seasonal Forecast in W. US
- NASA-NOAA-USGS Flash Flood Project. - NASA Snow
Products and LIS for NOAA Snow and Water Forecast
DROUGHT Four Projects. Two using satellite
(AMSR-E, Quickscat/Sea Winds and MODIS) and
modeling/data assimilation products to improve
the US Drought Monitor. Two other improving
seasonal predictions and the downscaling of
climate predictions for US Drought Outlook. In
support of the National Integrated Drought
Information System (NIDIS).
WATER QUALITY Nonpoint source pollution project
to assess the impact of MODIS land data products
and impact of LIS precipitation and ET products
to improve the continuous hydrologic model, HSPF,
used in the EPA BASINS DST.
24
Priorities of the Future

• NASA Approved Missions Global Precipitation
  Measurement (GPM) and Soil Moisture Active
  Passive (SMAP) Phase II and III Satellite Sensors
  for Hydrology (SWOT, GRACE-II, and SCLP)
• Integrate Land Components for Earth System Models
• - Atmospheric (WRF/GCE/GFS/GEOS) Land Surface
  Models (LIS) Coastal/Ocean Models
• Downscaling climate predictions to local/regional
  scales
• - Hydrologic (streamflow, ET, snow)
• - Including impacts, vulnerability and
  adaptations
• Infusing short-term, seasonal and decadal
  forecasting information into decision tools
• New Focus on Regional and Topical Area (Gulf
  Coast, Water Quality, Climate Impacts)
• Water, Water, Water
• Actual water
• - Consumption, industry, ecosystems, etc.
• Water as the underlying element
• - Drought, wildfires, energy production,
  agriculture