MBA Mortgage Applications and Commodity Trading Tips

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MBA Mortgage Applications and Commodity Trading
Tips
Crude commodity market Trading as per major
global update, IMF yesterday said economic growth
in the US which was aiding a helping hand to the
global economy as other major economies still
remained under doldrums was getting weaker as
equated to IMFs own forecast a couple of month
back. It added, some financial markets may be
overheating backed by sustained period of
near-zero rates which pushed the major equity
markets globally down with the US lading
around 1.5percentage yesterday. The agency,
trimmed its global growth forecast to
3.3percentage for 2013 as compared to
3.4percentage earlier whereas reduced the next
years forecast too. In other commodity related
developments which further weighed oil were
expectations over increase in crude inventories
with continued drop in refinery utilization rate.
As per Bloomberg survey, crude stocks likely
increased by 2 million barrels last week. Though
moderate increase was anticipated in terms
of products side, overall bias continues to
be weaker. If we look at the API stocks report
released today morning (IST) news repts showed
huge build in crude inventories by 5.1 million
barrels adding to negative pressure on the
commodity. There are no major data points to be
watched on the economic side today though the
late night FOMC minutes for Sept 16-17 meeting
might create good volatility in commodities
and equities alike. On crude, weaker equities
and largely stable to negative expectations from
inventory report would continue to push the
commodity lower. With the EIA too in its
STEO report cutting price and demand
forecast for the commodity in medium-term, we
feel overall trade would continue to be
lower. Global Market View In todays morning
session, Asian markets are trading on a negative
note tracking the negative US markets. SP 500
closed at 1935.10 down by 1.51 percent as markets
are feeling jittery about the earning season that
is to begin this week while IMFs global economic
growth forecasts too hurting equities. SGX
Nifty is trading on a negative note down
by 28.00 points in early trade this
morning, indicating a continuing weakness in
todays session as well Dollar index has
declined after weeks of appreciation as
markets feel nervous about the results
season, and is currently trading at 85.79.
Euro is trading on a marginally positive note to
the dollar in the morning session at 1.2634, and
Pound too is currently trading on an appreciating
note at 1.6064. Economic data No major data
except by the FOMCs meeting minute is
scheduled. We had maintained bearish bias in the
commodity on expectations that warmer to largely
normalized temperatures were seen in much of US
Western and North-Central region which might
continue to keep
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demand for the commodity subdued in coming
days As per Bloomberg news, WSI Corp
earlier said temperatures would be mostly normal
or higher than usual in the lower 48 states from
Oct. 11 through Oct. 15. On additional
negative note, EIA in its STEO said,
Households relying on NG will see heating
costs drop 4.6percentage to 649 as
compared to previous winter. Continued
higher supplies are expected to keep a lid
over the commodity in coming winter. We
hold moderate selling bias in the commodity
today. Natural gas prices are taking us on
a ride with the commodity witnessing wide
fluctuations in intraday movement with or without
the same developments over weather. After a big
over 3.5percentage drop in NG on Monday, we saw
November expiry contract advanced 1.5percentage
to 3.96 per MMBTU whereas in MCX NG added
1percentage to Rs 243.5 mark. Commodity Trading
Tips Sell Gold Mcx Dec below 26860 SL 26960 Tgt
26650 Sell Silver Mcx Dec below 38410 SL 38800
Tgt 37850