CPI Ex Food,Energy and Commodity Trading Tips

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CPI Ex Food, Energy and Commodity Trading Tips
Crude Commodity Trading as per major updates,
API inventory number released early today
morning showed rise in crude inventories by
1.2 million barrels, which was lower than
markets estimates. Products did saw modest
decline mainly the gasoline stocks which fell by
500,000 barrels through Oct 17, Bloomberg news
showed. For more important DoE inventory
data to be released today evening (IST),
estimates call for a rise in crude stocks
by 3 million barrels whereas products
stocks are seen sliding with gasoline
stockpiles likely fell by 1.45 million barrels.
Total gasoline stocks in the US are seen diving
down towards 204.2 Mln barrels, its lowest since
November 2012. While rising crude stocks and
moderate fall in products inventories even out
each other, we are not expecting inventory
numbers to be the major mover today. If we
talk about other major developments, very
strong increase in US equities which is
driving similar gains in Asia is seen supporting
the optimism in industrial commodities including
oil. Herein yesterdays better hinnies GDP
number and firm US housing data is also
seen supporting. Oil prices broadly are taking a
pullback after last week sliding to multi-year
lows and moving in a technically bear market
territory as equated to 2014 highs. Though
overall bias still stays weak, we feel it may
see some more gains for a few sessions
before the prior trend regains its hold
back. For intraday, we recommend buying the
commodity on small dips. Global Market View In
todays morning trade all the Asian equity
markets are trading on a positive note tracking
the positive close of the US equity markets.
Markets globally have been gaining traction
lately with anticipation that ECB stimulus would
fuel excess liquidity in the financial system,
compensating the vacuum created by the FED. SP
500 closed at 1941.28 up by almost 2 percent
yesterday buoyed by ECB expectations and better
than expected results from Apple inc. SGX nifty
is trading on a positive note up by 1 percent
indicating a positive session before the markets
close for the Diwali Holidays. In terms of
currency, Asian currencies are trading on a
marginally positive note with respect to the
dollar. US dollar index has appreciated
yesterday. Euro and Pound have depreciated with
respect to the dollar, and are currently trading
at 1.2724 and 1.6124 respectively. Economic data
that is to be released from European union and
Germany would play in major factor in the
international currency markets, as
speculation about further stimulus from the ECB
has been driving that markets since yesterday.
Any change from expectation towards the brighter
side could change the trend in the European
currency. From the US
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have the CPI number to be watched. Though
broader weather related updates remained
same in the commodity we saw strong gains
yesterday probably led by a technical pullback as
also said yesterday after the commodity moved to
11 month lows in the earlier session yesterday.
As we said earlier, Natural Gas weather said it
is expecting cool air will sweep through
Midwest and Northeast in the coming week
driving moderate heating demand however rest
of the US will be relatively comfortable
with limited demand for heating or cooling
for most part of the week. Inventory numbers too
suggest additions which are likely to keep the
overall trend still down. We maintain selling
bias in the commodity. Commodity Trading
Tips Buy Nickel Mcx Oct above 923 SL 910 Tgt
950 Sell Lead Mcx Oct below 123.50 SL 124.50 Tgt
122.50