Poker and The Big Mo

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Poker and The Big Mo

• Post by-Cat Marked Cards

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Poker and The Big Mo

• Everybody loves a winner. Any time we see
  someone, or something, emerge victorious in a
  difficult situation, that always makes a big
  impression. The natural human desire to want to
  attach ourselves to known winners only increases
  whenever money is at stake. This is why so many
  investors in the stock market engage is whats
  called momentum investing purchasing only
  securities that are currently on the rise, while
  selling any securities that are in a downswing.
  The result is often the antithesis of the
  financial axiom to buy low and sell high, as
  investors pour their money into hot stocks that
  are nearing peak prices, and dump off cold
  stocks that are wandering around the low end of
  their price range.
• Short-term perception is often at odds with
  long-term reality. Its too easy to get caught up
  in the immediacy of the moment. Fearful of
  missing the bandwagon, investors latch onto
  upward-moving stocks regardless of whether or not
  the companies have sound financials or healthy
  P/E ratios. The perceived value triumphs over the
  actual value, at least for a time.
• Poker players, too, can fall prey to this
  momentum-induced love haze, albeit in a different
  fashion. But it still comes down to the same
  fundamental mistake focusing too much on recent
  results at the expense of the long-term view.
  Lets call the poker version momentum playing.
• Perhaps nothing typifies momentum playing more
  than the poker player who goes on a big rush. For
  the fortunate player at the center of the rush,
  virtually everything he touches turns to gold.
  Strong hands hold up, draws come in, second-best
  hands suck out. As long as the heater continues,
  this player is the human embodiment of momentum
  playing at its most seductive because the rush
  encourages him to keep tossing more of his chips
  into the middle, more often and more
  aggressively. Winning begets more winning, or so
  it seems.

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• And at least for a time, the rush-happy player
  has reason to believe hell get a
  better-than-average return on his bets and raises
  not because hes in the midst of a massive
  lucky streak, but because so many of his
  opponents will be convinced of his supernatural
  luck. Those opponents will be extra-intimidated
  by his wagers and as a consequence the rushers
  fold equity increases dramatically. But just like
  the overvalued stock with the stratospheric P/E
  ratio, the party cant last forever. When the end
  comes, our formerly-fortunate player must be
  prepared tone down his loose-aggressive play
  pronto.
• Or consider the poker player who has had great
  success with one particular type of play. He may
  be tempted to repeat that maneuver again and
  again, without fully taking into account how
  changing game conditions have affected the likely
  outcome. Bluffing is a prime example. If Butch
  the Bully bluffs Ned the Nit out of a large pot
  during a NL tournament, no doubt that would be an
  extremely gratifying experience for Butch. And
  since Ned is a nit, its perfectly understandable
  if Butch thinks hell be able to repeat the bluff
  with equal success later in the tournament.
• But Butch needs to be careful. Whether in poker
  or investing, the momentum created by previous
  success gives a false sense of security, an
  excessive sense of empowerment. If Butch thinks
  that all he has to do is shove a big pile of
  chips in Neds direction any time he wants to
  pull off another bluff, he may be in for a very
  rude awakening. All it takes is one failed bluff
  attempt to evaporate a huge chunk of Butchs
  stack and potentially deep-six his tournament
  and any number of factors can change an
  impressive bluff into a snapped-off disaster.
  What were the conditions of the original bluff
  and are they in place now? Maybe this time around
  Ned has a smaller stack and has committed too
  many of his chips to let go of the hand. Maybe
  Butchs next bluff is a clumsy wager that comes
  out of nowhere and doesnt match up with his
  betting on earlier streets, allowing Ned to
  figure out what hes doing (Ned may be a nit, but
  hes not stupid). Perhaps the community board
  isnt threatening enough to make Ned fear a big
  hand. Or maybe Butch is missing the signs that
  Ned has a real hand this time.

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• Whatever the reason, a play that was profitable
  one minute ago might be an expensive mistake now,
  because game conditions are constantly in flux.
  Momentum can coax us into forgetting that.
• Why do we have favorite hands? Sure, sometimes
  its a sentimental thing, because the number of
  pips add up to an anniversary date, a birthday,
  or some other personal touchstone. But more often
  than not, we favor a hand because we remember
  winning big with it sometime in the past. Nobody
  would blame Doyle Brunson if he said his favorite
  hand was 10-2, but you still dont see him
  actually playing the hand all that often. And if
  Doyle Brunson, as brilliant as he is, knows that
  he cant win consistently by playing a weak hand
  like 10-2 no matter how spectacularly
  successful the hand has been for him in the past
  who are we to think we can play substandard,
  sentimental-favorite hands and expect to win?
• But if momentum can encourage us to overplay
  hands just because we happened to win big with
  them before, it can also induce us to underplay
  hands that are known to be profitable, just
  because we havent been winning with them
  recently. The classic example (which almost all
  of us have been guilty of at one time or another)
  is not raising before the flop with premium cards
  such as Aces, Kings, or A-K when we havent been
  running well with them lately. Yeah, sure, there
  are some scenarios where its correct to slowplay
  premium hands before the flop, but those
  scenarios are few and far between. Like the
  momentum investor who cant sell a stock fast
  enough because the price fell five points last
  week, we merely limp with aces because we
  remember vividly how our Aces got cracked last
  time. Or we limp with A-K when we know the pot
  should be raised, because the last several times
  we were dealt A-K it never connected with the
  board and we always had to fold.

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