US Dollar Breakout: How Far Will It Run?

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Commodity Trading Research
US Dollar Breakout How Far Will It Run?
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• Hi, My name is Justin and Im with Commodity
  Trading Research, today were reviewing our
  recently published article

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• US Dollar Breakout How Far Will It Run?

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• Something very important happened the past few
  days The US Dollar rallied above the important
  resistance trendline. I pointed out a few weeks
  ago. Heres an updated chart

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(No Transcript)
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• As you can see, the greenback rallied strongly
  off technical support at 94 (red line) in
  mid-October. The bullish momentum is carrying the
  currency above (green circle) the downtrend line
  (green line) from the early 2015 highs.

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• Without question, we have a US Dollar breakout on
  our hands.

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• Whats sending the greenback higher?

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• Last weeks FOMC meeting revealed the US central
  bank is closer to hiking interest than many
  analysts and economists had expected.

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• Decidedly hawkish adjustments to the Fed policy
  statement has investors rushing into the worlds
  reserve currency.

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• According to Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen a rate
  hike may come as early as the next FOMC meeting
  on December 16th, 2015.

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• Whats this Dollar rally mean for commodities?

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• As youre likely aware, the precious metals space
  has already had the spots knocked out of it the
  past few days. Gold is down 73 an ounce (-6)
  from the intraday high on the day of the FOMC

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• announcement, while silver has plunged just over
  1 (-7.5). Given the recent price action in
  precious metals, its not hard to figure out the
  impact of a rising dollar on commodities. Heres
  the deal

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• Should the US Dollar continue rallying in coming
  months assets like gold, silver, platinum,
  palladium, and crude oil, will face
  continuedopposition to higher prices.

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• But there is a caveat

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• Should we see an unexpectedly bad economic data
  point this month or next, the US Dollar breakout
  could fail. And as you may know, a failed
  breakout can cause a violent price reaction in
  the opposite direction.

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• In other words, a break below the red line in the
  chart above is still possible.
• Heres where it gets very interesting

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• In an appearance before a House of
  Representatives committee yesterday, Janet Yellen
  said the Fed would consider negative interest
  rates should the US economy deteriorate in a
  significant way.

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• Folks, if anythings capable of sending the US
  Dollar sharply lower- thats it. Bottom line
  Economic data over the next few weeks will give
  essential clues to whether the Fed will raise
  rates in December or not.

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• But no matter what the Fed has in store for us,
  commodity investors should be monitoring the US
  Dollar chart closely.

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