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Time series analysis has two important aims

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Title: Time series analysis has two important aims


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Quantitative Methods info_at_casestudyhelp.in91
94220-28822
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  • Quantitative Methods
  •  
  • Finoplastika Industries Ltd, Nigeria (20 Marks)
  • Time series analysis has two important
    aims 1) recognizing the quality of the
    phenomenon shown by the series of studies, and 2)
    Both the aims need the plan of the viewed time
    series data is recognized and somewhat officially
    explained A time series is said to be a
    'collection of observations made in sequence with
    time'. For example recording level of daily
    rainfall, periodical total domestic product of
    US, and monthly strength of the. workers in
    Marine Corps for a specific rank and MOS. The
    evaluation of time series gives instruments for
    picking a symbolic model and delivering
    forecasts. There are two sorts of times series
    data Continuous in this the data consists of
    study at every moment, for example, seismic
    movement recorded on a seismogram. Discrete
    the data contains recordings taken at different
    periods ,like, statistics of each month crime.

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  • Until the data is absolutely haphazard,
    studies in time series are usually related to
    each and the following studies could be partly
    ascertain by the last values. For instance, the
    reasons pertaining to the meteorology which have
    an effect on the temperature for any given day
    tend to have some affect on the next day's
    climate. Hence, the observations of the past
    temperature are helpful for predicting
    temperatures for the following days. A time
    series can be deterministic if there are no
    haphazard or feasible features but goes in a set
    and foreseeable manner. The data gathered during
    the classical physics experiment like showing
    Newton's Law of Motion, is one example of a
    deterministic time series. The stochastic type of
    series is more appropriate to the econometric
    function. Stochastic variables contain undefined
    or arbitrary viewpoint. Though the worth of each
    study cannot be precisely foreseen, calculating
    the various observations could follow the
    expected method. These methods can be explained
    through the statistical models.

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  • According to these models, studies differ
    erratically on the underlying mean value which is
    the role of time. Time series data can be put in
    the following categories one or more performance
    factors trend, seasonality, cyclical function
    and random sound. Various kinds of time series
    predicting models give forecasts through
    extrapolating the previous performance of the
    values of a specified \'l!riable of interest.
    Consecutive study in econometric times series are
    generally not free and forecast can be made on
    the basis of last observations. Although precise
    predictions can be made with deterministic time
    series, predictions of stochastic time series are
    restricted to 'conditional statements regarding
    the future on the basis of particular
    hypothesis.' Armstrong (2001) says, "The basic
    Assumption is that the variable ui!! continue in
    the future as it has behaved in the past. "
    Particularly, the time series predictions are
    suitable for stochastic type of data in which the
    fundamental root cause of variation like, trend,
    cyclical performance, seasonality, and uneven
    variations, do not change radically m time.
    Therefore, modeling is considered to be more
    suitable temporarily instead of permanent
    predictions.

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  • Answer the following question.
  •  
  • Q1.Write briefly on time-series analysis.
    (Hint recognizing the quality of the phenomenon
    shown by the series of studies, and, both the
    aims need the plan of the viewed time series data
    is recognized and somewhat officially explained)
  •  

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