TRANSTOOLS meeting

1
Methods and results of the Environmental and
Transport impacts modules
TRANS-TOOLS
2
The Environmental module
OBJECTIVES

• Estimation of emission levels
• (global warming and air pollution)

• Estimation of energy consumption

• Analysis at country level (EU 25)

• Disaggregation by urban and non urban
  context

• Disaggregation by vehicle type (car, LGV,
  HGV, bus/coaches)
• and transport mode (road, rail, air,
  waterborne transport)

3
The Environmental module
MAIN REQUIREMENTS

• The following exogenous variables from the
  upstream
• TRANS-TOOLS model chain
• - traffic volume at network level (vkm)
• - fuel consumption factors (lt/vkm, kWh/vkm)
• - emission factors (g/vkm) for greenhouse
  gases (CO2 ) and
• air pollution (PM 10 and 2.5 for power
  plants and transport
• emissions, NOx, NMVOC and SO2 )

4
The Environmental module
MAIN REQUIREMENTS
2. Unitary external costs per pollutant ( per
ton emitted) - Reference data from the
HEATCO Project (expressed at factor costs
2000) - Country specific external costs
calculated through the EcoSense software
tool - External costs at local level close to
the sources (urban/non urban context)
derived from several EC projects and studies
5
Example of the Environmental module (Excel
format/1)
Environmental module List of exogenous
variables 1. Traffic volume 2. Fuel consumption
factors 3. Emission factors
6
Example of the Environmental module (Excel
format/2)
Environmental module CO2 Emission (ton) CO2
emission factor (g/vkm) Traffic volume (vkm)
106
7
Example of the Environmental module (Excel
format/3)
Environmental module CO2 External costs () CO2
marginal cost (/ton) CO2 emission (ton)
8
The Environmental module
MAIN ASSUMPTIONS FOR SCENARIOS
- Future traffic volumes as from TRANS-TOOLS
models - Future consumption factors and
emission factors from TRANS-TOOLS models
- Future external costs in line with the real
GDP per capita growth projections (source
European Commission)
9
The Transport impact module
OBJECTIVES

• Estimation of travel time and congestion

Coming from the TRANS-TOOLS
upstream models

• Operating costs

• Safety impacts

Provided by Impact Module

• Evaluation of total Value Of Time

10
The Transport impact module Safety impacts
OBJECTIVES

• Estimation of accident external costs (values
  for casualties
• avoided)

• Analysis at country level (EU 25)

• Disaggregation by urban and non urban
  context

• Disaggregation by vehicle type (car, LGV,
  HGV, bus/coaches)
• and transport mode (road and rail)

• Air and waterborne transport modes due to
  the relatively
• high safety levels have not been include
  in the assessment

11
The Transport impact module Safety impacts
MAIN REQUIREMENTS

• Exogenous variables from the upstream TRANS-TOOLS
  model
• chain
• - traffic volume at network level (vkm)

2. Unitary marginal costs per accident ()
- Country specific accident costs per a)
fatality, b) severe injury, c) slight
injury, estimated through WTP surveys.
Data source the HEATCO Project (data expressed
at factor costs 2000)
12
The Transport impact module Safety impacts
MAIN REQUIREMENTS
3. Risk values - Reference data from
IRTAD, DG TREN (year 2000) - Estimation of
risk values by vehicle type and urban/ non
urban context derived from several EC
projects and studies, e.g. RECORDIT for freight
- Risk values at network level equal to the
corresponding values at country level
- Application of average correction factors for
underreporting in road accidents
13
Example of the Safety impact module (Excel format)
Safety impact module Safety impact ( 000 vkm)
? (r c vkm) r risk value c value of
casualty avoided vkm traffic volume at network
level
14
The Transport impact module Safety impacts
MAIN ASSUMPTIONS FOR SCENARIOS
- Future traffic volumes as from TRANS-TOOLS
models - Future risk values in line with the
ASSESS projections (fatality rates) -
Future accident external costs in line with the
real GDP per capita growth projections
(source European Commission)
15
The Transport impact module Value of Time
MAIN REQUIREMENTS
1. VoT saving per hour - Country specific
VoT estimated per passenger trip (work/ non
work), transport mode (air, bus, car/train) and
per freight tonne. Source HEATCO
project, data at factor cost 2000
16
The Transport impact module Value of Time
MAIN ASSUMPTIONS FOR SCENARIOS
- Future traffic demand as from TRANS-TOOLS models
- Future time saved/lost as from TRANS-TOOLS
models
- A default intertemporay elasticity to GDP
per capita growth of 0.7 will be used for
passengers (work/non work) and freight
transport Source HEATCO project WTP
surveys -
17
Example of the VoT impact module (Excel format)
VoT impact module Total VoT () ? (d t
VoT) d traffic demand (passenger, tonne) t
time saving (hours) VoT Unitary value per hour
saved
18
Deadline and future actions

• Environmental and Transport impacts modules in
  excel format
• delivered by May 15

• Methodological guidelines between the end of May
  and Mid June