PROTECTION AND SUBSIDIES: WHAT ARE WE CUTTING?

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PROTECTION AND SUBSIDIES WHAT ARE WE CUTTING?
Sector Import tariff (tms) Output subsidies (to) export subsidies (txs) Land related input subsidies (tfdland), part of greenbox
Grains 23.22 0.53 18.91 -87.53
Oilseeds 0.00 31.82 3.18 -79.41
Cotton 0.00 27.07 2.71 -22.15
OthCrops 9.04 0.91 9.87 -15.56
Livestock 1.43 0.13 1.71 -8.50
Dairy 23.91 -0.02 19.31 0.00
Sugar 88.26 -0.07 89.73 0.00
OthFood 13.98 -2.09 13.85 0.00
Average 19.98 7.29 19.91 -26.64
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Welfare gains
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Change in farm income
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Output and price changes

• Grains EU decrease (7.8 16.4), fairly uniform
  increase in other countries (max 2.7 in DevAsia
  and MENA in Full greenbox)
• Dairy EU decrease (6.9 12.3), high increase
  MENA, RAfrica, OthOECD (15 30)
• Sugar EU decrease (24 42 ), high increase
  OthSAmerica, RAfrica (15 38)
• World price changes fairly small, from 0 to 4.6
  (Oilseeds in Full greenbox)

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EU Land allocation

• green box removal changing land allocation
• Move from more distorted sectors to less

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Land rents

• Decreasing in the EU
• Doha basic 11.8, Doha greenbox 59.4
• Full basic 21.8, Full greenbox 62.7
• Increasing in other countries
• Doha max 5 (OthSAm, OthOECD, Brazil)
• Full max 13 (Brazil, OthSAm), 8 (OthOECD),
  smaller elsewhere
• Land fixity

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Buyout scheme (PV at 10, annual CAP cost 60
billion USD)

• Doha basic 40 billion USD
• (less than 1 year worth of CAP)
• Doha greenbox 170 billion USD
• (2.8 years worth of CAP)

• Full basic 79 billion USD
• (1.3 year worth of CAP)
• Full greenbox 228 billion USD
• (3.8 years worth of CAP)

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Lessons learnt

• Factors moving away from agriculture, TOT effect
  in manufacturing overtakes allocative efficiency
  effect
• Farm income in the EU decreases
• Land allocation changes
• Land rents decrease
• No NAMA