LXXXVIII Congresso Nazionale SIF

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LXXXVIII Congresso Nazionale SIF
Data assimilation and numerical modeling of MAP
IOP-15
Massimo DIsidoro, Andrea Buzzi and Silvio
Davolio Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and
Climate National Research Council,
Bologna ISAC-CNR
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LXXXVIII Congresso Nazionale SIF
Summary
The MAP IOP15 provides an opportunity of
analysing and verifying numerical experiments on
a case of rapid cyclogenesis in the lee of the
Alps
FRIULI
LMTA
VENETO
MI
PIEDMONT
Apennines

• Runs at different resolutions (nested) using the
  BOLAM model
• Effects of orography on model errors
• Impact of OI (re) analysis of standard and MAP
  TEMP and SYNOP observations
• Mesoscale verification against MAP observations
  (precipitation over LMTA and northern Italy,
  wind)

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LXXXVIII Congresso Nazionale SIF
IR Meteosat sequence, 12 h interval
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ECMWF analysis fields, 6 Nov 1999, 00 UTC
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ECMWF analysis fields, 7 Nov 1999, 06 UTC
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BOLAM 30 h run, verifying 7 Nov 1999, 06 UTC
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30 h forecast model error, 7 Nov 1999, 06 UTC
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std. or.
Incremental orographic influence (enhanced minus
standard orography), 7 Nov 1999, 06 UTC
en. or.
RMSE of geopotential height at 500 hPa
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30 h forecast model error with OI-based
reanalysis of SYNOP and TEMP (including MAP
special stations) and enhanced orography, 7 Nov
1999, 06 UTC
ECMWF an.
rean.
rean.
RMSE of geopotential height at 500 hPa
ECMWF an.
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BOLAM 30 h run with OI reanalysis and enhanced
orography, verifying 7 Nov 1999, 06 UTC
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BOLAM 30 h standard run, verifying 7 Nov 1999,
06 UTC
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Mesoscale evolution nested runs (7 km
resolution) and comparison with observations
BOLAM 18 h nested run, verifying 6 Nov 1999, 18
UTC
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12 UTC
18 UTC
15 UTC
24 UTC
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Nested run, no reanalysis
Nested run, reanalysis
Wind speed (a) and wind direction (b) measured by
the wind profiler (dashed) of Lonate Pozzolo at
2640 m a.s.l. and forecasted by the model in the
same location at 750 hPa (solid)
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Nested run, no reanalysis (no ra)
Nested run, reanalysis (ra)
24 hour accumulated precipitation, 06 Nov 1999,
06 UTC. Contour interval 10 mm.
Hit rate and false alarms, no ra (full), ra
(dashed)
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Conclusions

• The MAP IOP15 was characterised by intense
  mesoscale phenomena, including
• orographic and frontal precipitation,
• propagation and cut-off of an upper PV anomaly
• North Foehn
• Model errors are mainly due to
• orography
• initial condition
• Enhanced orography and reanalysis reduce the
  error, both in low and high resolution experiments

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In progress...

• Case of rapid lee cyclogenesis water vapour
  seems to play an important role in the evolution
  of the cyclone.
• Humidity data from GPS occultation are
  potentially useful in order to retrieve
  information in regions poor of conventional data
  coverage like over the ocean.
• Tests using pseudo-observations of atmospheric
  moisture simulating GPS occultation measurements
  will be performed in order to asses the potential
  of this kind of data.

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