What Have We Learned after 5 Years of LEO Scott Glenn

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What Have We Learned after 5 Years of LEO?Scott
Glenn Oscar SchofieldCoastal Ocean Observation
Lab(COOL)Rutgers University
Science web site http//marine.rutgers.edu/cool
Operational web site http//www.thecoolroom.org
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Book from 1954
Observatories
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I walk into our control room, with its panoply
of views of the sea. There are the updated global
pictures from the remote sensors on satellites,
there the evolving maps of subsurface variables,
there the charts that show the position and
status of all our Slocum scientific platforms,
and I am satisfied that we are looking at the
ocean more intensely and more deeply than anyone
anywhere else. - Henry
Stommel, The SLOCUM Mission 1989
Some Geo-poetry We shall not cease from
exploration. And the end of all our
exploring, Will be to arrive where we started And
know the place for the first time. T.S. Elliot
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Our Observatory Experience
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LEO-15 A sustained observatory
3km x 3km 1996-Present
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LEO-15 A sustained observatory
Succeses High resolution time series during
summer upwelling High resolution data sets ideal
for validating 1-D models of sediment
transport Variability in coastal optical
properties
Goal is to move into preoperational status, where
it does not require a science team for
operation, operations being transferred to staff
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30 X 30 km LEO CPSE An Integrated Observatory
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New Jersey Coastal Upwelling
Barnegat
Cape May
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Seasonal temperature variation is the primary
signal. Summer upwelling is 2nd
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Causes of Hypoxia/Anoxia
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Hypoxia/Anoxia Bottom Bathymetry
Warsh NOAA 1989
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Modeled Effect of Bathymetric Variability on
Upwelling
1 m/s current velocity
Along shore subsurface deltas cause upwelling to
be 3d, not 2d.
North
wind

Barnegat delta
LEO delta
Cape May delta
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Courtesy of Hans Graber, Rich Garvine, Bob Chant,
Andreas Munchow, Scott Glenn and
Mike Crowley
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Shipboard surveys
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POC represents potentially 182 µmol oxygen/kg
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250
40
40
200
30
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CPSE
Joint Sediment Study
150
of Research Institutions
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Traditional NSF Ocean Study
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10
10
50
0
0
0
0
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
Year
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The COOLroom Operational Collaboratory
COOLroom Skunk Works Model
COOLroom War Room Model
Evaluate Radical Collocation in the COOLroom to
improve Virtual Collocation Systems.
Provide guidance for the Regional Collaboratory
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Month Long Experimental Effort
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Atmosphere/Ocean Forecast Models
Operational Low-Res COAMPS Atmospheric Model
Experimental High-Res COAMPS Atmospheric Model
Air-Sea Interaction Model
ROMS Ocean Model (KPP and MY 2.5 Turbulent
Closure)
Bottom Boundary Layer Model
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Real-time Ensemble Forecasts
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Real-Time Ensemble Validation
Thermistor

• In an observationally rich
• environment, ensemble forecasts
• can be compared to real-time data
• to assess which model is closer to reality
• and try to understand why.

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Physical/Biological Models
Operational Low-Res COAMPS Atmospheric Model
Experimental High-Res COAMPS Atmospheric Model
Air-Sea Interaction Model
ROMS Ocean Model (KPP and MY 2.5 Turbulent
Closure)
Bottom Boundary Layer Model
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ESSE Flow Diagram
DE0/N

DP0/N
-
-

Most Probable Forecast

Synoptic Obs
A Posteriori Residules dr ()
Historical, Synoptic, Future in Situ/Remote
Field/Error Observations d0R0

-
-
Data Residuals
Measurement Error Covariance

d-CY(-)
Ensemble Mean



eqYj(-)
Gridded Residules

Y(-)

-


j1
Y()
Y()
Y1 Yj Yq

-
Y1 Yj Yq

0

-
E(-) P(-)

-
0



-
/-

E0 P0
0
jq
uj(o,Ip) with physical constraints
Continuous Time Model Errors Q(t)
Key
Ea() Pa()

E() P()
Field Operation Assumption
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Hindcast sensitivity studies
Measured
Total Chlorophyll Measured 3-5 mg Chl a m-3
Diatom Chlorophyll Modeled 2-3 mg Chl a m-3
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Adaptive Sampling Platforms
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Ship-to-Shore Communications
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Red Tide Observed at 790 nm on 22 July 2000 With
the PHILLS Sensor
100 meters
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Bioluminescence Potential
1e6
4e10
Photons/sec/ml
0
6
12
Depth (m)
18
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a
0
1.0
2.0
Distance (km)
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Ship Grid Patterns
BL Isosurfaces
1E10 ph/s/35L
0
3E11 ph/s/.35L
Depth (m)
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Latitude (5km)
Longitude (2km)
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BL Isosurfaces
5E10ph/s/.35L
1E11ph/s/.35L
Depth (m)
Latitude (300m)
Longitude (500m)
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Scientists want real-time observational nowcasts
and model forecasts .
DO REAL PEOPLE CARE?
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Where we do go from here?
The very few existing time-series stations paint
a compelling picture of important oceanic changes
in physics, chemistry and biology. Yet these
stations capture the time domain at only a single
point. New strategies for observing the
appropriate spatial correlation are required.
-- Ocean Sciences at the New Millennium
Ocean Sciences Decadal Committee 2001
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Motivation

• To get these initial conditions
• Modelers like to assimilate maps of coherent
  array data
• Modelers do not like to assimilate incoherent
  time series data

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New Jersey Shelf Observing System (NJ-SOS)
300 X 300 km NJSOS An Integrated Sustained
Observatory
Satellites,
RADAR, Gliders
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International Constellation of Ocean Color
Satellites
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phcobilin
Chl b
Chl c
Fig. 3
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PATTERN RECOGNITION (here HABs)
Thanks to Gary Kirkpatrick
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Measure IOPs using the observation network
Hyperspectral Gliders are coming
Satellites algorithms
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Nested Multi-Static CODAR Array
Beach
Buoys
Boats
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Radial Velocity Map
Brant Beach Site
Brigantine Site
25 km
A
25 cm/s
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Test
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Hurricane Floyd as seen by the NOAA-12 on Sept.
15 630 PM EDT (2230 GMT)
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Meteorological Forcing
50 0 -50
Wind (m/s)
20 10 0
254 256 258 260 262
264 266 268 270
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Wind (m/s)
1040 1005 970
254 256 258 260 262
264 266 268 270
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Pressure (mBars)
254 256 258 260 262
264 266 268 270
272
Time (year-day)
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Current Response
50 0 -50
Wind (m/s)
50 0 -50
254 256 258 260 262 264
266 268 270 272
Codar (cm/s)
254 256 258 260 262 264
266 268 270 272
50 0 -50
ADCP 3m (cm/s)
50 0 -50
254 256 258 260 262 264
266 268 270 272
ADCP 10m (cm/s)
254 256 258 260 262 264
266 268 270 272
Time (year-day)
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Inertial Energy
30 15 0
Codar (cm/s)
30 15 0
254 256 258 260 262
264 266 268 270
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ADCP 3m (cm/s)
30 15 0
254 256 258 260 262
264 266 268 270
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ADCP 10m (cm/s)
254 256 258 260 262
264 266 268 270
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Time (year-day)
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GPS Synchronization Bistatic
Monostatic HF-Radar
Bistatic HF-Radar
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GPS Synchronization Bistatic
Ship to Shore
Monostatic
Bistatic
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R/V Endeavor Cruise Track (12/1/2001 12/8/2001)
Standard Bistatic Buoy
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GPS Synchronization Bistatic
Buoy to Shore
Monostatic
Bistatic
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GPS Synchronization Bistatic
Ship to Shore
R/V Endeavor University of Rhode Island
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R/V Endeavor Cruise Track (12/1/2001 12/8/2001)
Standard Bistatic Buoy
Long-range Bistatic
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GPS Synchronization Bistatic
Ship to Shore
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HF Radar systems at NJSOS
Funded Deployed
Standard Monostatic 2
2 Long Range Monostatic 5
4 Standard Bistatic Buoy
1 1 Long Range Bistatic Buoy
1 0 Bistatic Transmitter
1 0
10
7
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MULTI-STATICCODAR NETWORK
Monostatic Systems
Bistatic Systems
Number of Looks
4 4 16
4 5 20
4 6 24
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Long-Duration Glider AUVs
RF Repeater
ADCP vs. Glider Drift Comparison
Temperature Cross Section July 19,
2000
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How do we build a Smart Glider Fleet?
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Are there models for linked regional centers?
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NWS Forecast Office - Mount Holly, NJ
Fort Dix, NJ WSR-88 Doppler Radar

• NWS Mount Holly Personnel
• Lead Forecasters 5
• General Forecasters 5
• Meteorological Interns 3
• Hydrometeorological
• Technicians 2
• Electronic Technicians 4
• Management 5

County Warning Area
Marine/Aviation Desk
Radar Desk
NWSFO Mount Holly
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26 Regional Offices
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Regional Observation Forecast Center

• Startup Costs
• 1 XBand Satellite Dish 0.5 M
• 5 CODARs Installed _at_ 200K 1.0 M
• 10 Glider AUVs w/sensors _at_ 100K 1.0 M
• Chase Boat, Vehicles, Computers, etc. 0.5 M
• Total 3.0 M
• Operational Costs
• Salary, Fringe, Overhead
• 24/7 Watch Forecasters 5
• Satellite Tech 1
• CODAR Tech 2
• Glider Tech 2
• Computer Tech 1
• Electronics Tech 1
• Modeler 1
• Director 1
• Secretary 1
• Salary Total 15 _at_ 150K/year 2.25 M/year

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How do you fund this?
Standard Science Budgets NOPP Partnerships Senato
rial Plus-ups NSF MREFC
125K/yr (for 2.9 yrs) 1-3 M (for 1-3
yrs) 3-8 M (for 3 yrs) 6-35 M (for 3-5 yrs)
Advice from Canada, referring to an ocean
observation network Purely scientific gains
pale into insignificance. Success is measured by
the quality of the product supplied, not research
papers. Howard
Freeland (leader of Canadian ARGO effort)

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New York Harbor
Economic Impact 30 Billion NJDOT
Maritime Operations Budget 300
Million Harbor Science Budgets
3 Million
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Operational Budget (3.4 billion before Sept.
11th)
The Coast Guard cannot possibly continue its
current high-security regime without more
vessels, people, and resources. Sen. John Kerry
(MA)
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Technology Partnerships

• Remote Sensing
• Coastal ocean algorithms NRL, U. Maine,
  NOAA/NESDIS, FERI
• International constellation of satellites
  SeaSpace Inc., NRL

• HF Radar
• MultiStatic Network-CODAR
• NEOS Backbone GOMOOS, UNC, U. Maryland
• Ship Tracking/SAR- CODAR, Applied Mathematics Inc.

• Gliders
• Autonomous Control Webb Reserch Inc.
• Red-Tide Tracking Mote, Cal-Poly, NRL

• Modeling
• Physical/Bio-Optical Modeling FERI
• Sediment Transport USGS, WHOI

Together these components will form the backbone
of the Big American Coastal Ocean Network
BACON
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What will we do with the BACON?
A) National Ecosystem Experimental Demos
NEED
B) Coastal Ocean Observatory Research Studies
COORS
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What kind of COORS should we do?
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So What Have W e Learned after 5 Years of LEO?

• Make BACON
• NEED COORS
• Packaged with that plastic thing - OCEAN.US

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I am satisfied that we are looking at the
ocean more intensely and more deeply than
anyone anywhere else.