cumulative seismicity

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Accelerating Moment Release
e(t ) A - B(tf-t)m
cumulative seismicity
time
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All California Earthquakes M6.5 1950-1995
Bowman et al, JGR, 1998
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Region Radius Scales with the Moment of the Event
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(No Transcript)
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The seismicity rate should change in the region
being loaded
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No region of significant acceleration was
associated with the boundary north of the
earthquake (30 confidence). Significant
acceleration is associated with the boundary for
250 km to the south of the recent rupture (98
confidence) seismicity 500 km south of the event
also shows acceleration with lower confidence
(80 confidence). Further south the boundary
shows no demonstrable acceleration (lt40
confidence).
Mignan et al, EPSL, 2006.
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False Alarm Rate from Synthetic Catalogs
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C-values along the Java Trench
Mignan et al, EPSL, 2006.
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C-values along the Java Trench
Mignan et al, EPSL, 2006.
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Scenarios
11
Scenarios
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Scenarios
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Scenarios
14
Scenarios
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Scenarios
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Scenarios
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Scenarios
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Scenarios
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Southern California Scenarios
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(No Transcript)
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AMR vs. PI Index
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Issues

• ROC vs. Molchan
• Size of predicted events
• timescales
• What exactly is a miss?
• Synthesizing approaches

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Coyote Creek Scenario
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Elsinore Scenario
0.1
?Cff Level
0.01
0.001
1960
2000
1980
Starting Time
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San Andreas Scenario
8E8
6E8
Cumul. Benioff Strain
4E8
1E8
1980
2000
1960
0.1
?Cff Level
0.01
0.001
1960
2000
1980
Starting Time
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Rogers Creek Scenario