Design and Development of Multifunctional Mesoscale Observing Networks in Support of Integrated Fore

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Design and Development of Multi-functional
Mesoscale Observing Networks in Support of
Integrated Forecasting Systems

• A Report on a USWRP Workshop December 8-10,
  2003 Boulder, CO

Presentation to NWS ST Committee February 14,
2005 Silver Spring, MD
Organized by Fred Carr, University of Oklahoma
Walt Dabberdt, Vaisala Inc. Tom Schlatter,
NOAA/OAR/Forecast Systems Laboratory
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Presentation Outline
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• Workshop goals and background
• Recommendations of the Modeling Data
  Assimilation Workgroup
• Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
• Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
• Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and
  International
• Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
• Synergies with the NWS Strategic Plan and STIP
• Four Overarching Recommendations

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Workshop Goals

• Develop a roadmap that leads to designing,
  testing and implementing integrated mesoscale
  observing-forecasting systems that
• yield improved mesoscale forecasts
• utilize optimal observing system configurations
• serve multiple applications
• recognize the capabilities, interests and
  resources
• of the public, private and academic sectors
• Explore appropriate business models that will
  support and enable these systems

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Working Groups and Leaders

• Nowcasting --
• Pat Welsh, NOAA/NWS
• Jim Wilson, NCAR
• Modeling and Data Assimilation --
• Steve Koch, NOAA/OAR
• Xiaolei Zou, Florida State University
• Test Beds --
• Marty Ralph, NOAA/OAR
• Dave Jorgensen, NOAA/OAR
• Implementation --
• Joe Friday, University of Oklahoma
• Maria Pirone, AER, Inc.

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Workshop Participants Demographics
Domestic Intl. Total 37 4 41
49 3 52 25 4 29 111 11
122
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Presentation Outline

• Workshop goals and background
• Recommendations of the Modeling Data
  Assimilation Workgroup
• Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
• Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
• Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and
  International
• Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
• Synergies with the NWS Strategic Plan and STIP
• Four Overarching Recommendations

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Modeling Data Assimilation RecommendationsOver
arching Issues

• What is the optimal mix of observations at the
  meso-, storm- and urban scales? Regional
  testbeds are needed to provide a basis for
  answering this question.
• Examples of mesoscale forecast applications
  requiring improved observing capabilities
  include
• severe weather systems in both cold and warm
  seasons
• air quality and chemical emergency response
• aviation, marine and surface transportation and
• hydrology and more.
• Modelers should be involved in the observing
  network decision process by designing observing
  system experiments to determine
• the most important variables to measure
• the minimum spacing and resolution requirements
  (network design)
• adaptive and targeted sampling strategies and
• data assimilation techniques to effectively use
  these new measurements.

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Modeling Data Assimilation RecommendationsOver
arching Issues

• It may more cost effective to sample only the
  boundary layer with denser coverage than to
  similarly enhance observations in the upper
  troposphere for improving mesoscale analysis and
  prediction.
• It may be cost effective to deploy intermittent,
  targeted observations at high resolution.
  Testbeds built around prototype observing
  networks need to be in place to provide real-data
  tests of proposed strategies

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Modeling Data Assimilation Recommendations
Remedy Deficiencies in Current Observational
Networks

• Most desirable additional measurements
• Lower tropospheric measurements
• Mass, winds, moisture fields (3D) 10 km
  horizontal 200 m vertical 1-3 hrs
• PBL turbulent fluxes, PBL heights
• Turbulent flow and stability 2 km 15 min
• Aerosols, chemical tracers, emissions data
• Quantitative precipitation estimate
• Better accuracy, good and consistent quality
  control
• Upper tropospheric measurements
• State variable measurements at 100 km spacing
  (0.5 km vertical), 1-3 hours
• improved winds from satellite and regional
  aircraft
• vertical profiling of state variables and
  hydrometeors in cloudy regions
• increased vertical resolution from satellite
• ozone profiling
• tropopause topology
• Land surface properties
• Soil moisture and temperature profiles, snow
  cover and depth, SST, vegetation type/state
  updated daily
• Inputs to radiative transfer model Ozone, CO2,
  water vapor, clouds

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Presentation Outline

• Workshop goals and background
• Recommendations of the Modeling Data
  Assimilation Workgroup
• Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
• Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
• Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and
  International
• Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
• Synergies with the NWS Strategic Plan and STIP
• Four Overarching Recommendations

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Advanced Operational Nowcasting Scope

• Forecast Period 0-6 hr
• Forecast High Impact Events
• Winter weather heavy precipitation
  (precipitation type major challenge), high
  winds, icing
• Summer weather high winds, heavy rain,
  lightning, hail
• Air quality dispersion of airborne toxins
• Forecast Techniques
• Extrapolation
• Statistical
• Numerical (process models)
• Expert systems
• Observing Systems - All
• Important parameters to measure low-level
  moisture detection of
• sharp gradients boundary-layer height
  strength of capping
• inversion energy potentially available for
  convection

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Nowcasting Recommendations

• Top priority Establish a national mesonetwork
  of surface stations.
• NOAA should take the lead to establish this
  network, and set standards for data quality.
  Resolution needed 10-25km and 5min.
• Radar recommendations
• NWS should proceed without delay with the
  (approved) addition of dual polarization
  capability to the WSR-88D network.
• Pursue the National Research Council Study
  recommendation to integrate other radars into the
  WSR-88D network.
• Support studies to investigate means for
  improving boundary-layer coverage in the future
  through the use of closely spaced X-band radars.
• NWS should pursue vigorously plans for a national
  expansion of the NOAA Profiler Network with
  emphasis on boundary-layer observations.
• A research field project should be conducted that
  tests the utility of radar refractivity
  measurements to improve nowcasting.

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Nowcasting Recommendations

• Other priority recommendations
• Continue support for collaborative research
  projects aimed at using total lightning data to
  improve severe weather warnings and nowcasts.
• Products detailing near-surface water vapor
  fields should be provided in real time to
  forecasters and assimilated into models to
  demonstrate how high-resolution water vapor
  fields can improve nowcasting.
• Establish testbeds for very short period
  forecasting (0-6 hr, nowcasting) of high impact
  weather.

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Presentation Outline

• Workshop goals and background
• Recommendations of the Modeling Data
  Assimilation Workgroup
• Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
• Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
• Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and
  International
• Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
• Synergies with the NWS Strategic Plan and STIP
• Four Overarching Recommendations

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Mesoscale Weather Forecasting -- Testbeds

• Testbed Definition A working relationship in
  quasi-operational framework among forecasters,
  researchers, private-sector, and government
  agencies aimed at solving operational and
  practical regional problems with a strong
  connection to end-users.

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Testbed Recommendations

• Testbed considerations and attributes
• Yield improvements in services, products,
  economics and public safety
• Accelerate transition of RD to better
  operations, services, and decision making.
• Testbeds require a long-term (multi-year)
  commitment, probably at multiple locations
• With a view toward improving operational weather
  services, the observing systems deployed within
  testbeds should be reliable, cost-effective,
  commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) where possible,
  and capable of sustained, continuous operation.
• Some redundancy in the observational capability
  of testbeds is needed to make informed decisions
  about which sites and instruments are needed for
  long-term operational purposes.

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Testbed Recommendations

• Testbeds are crucial in transitioning observing
  and modeling research into operations a
  successful testbed must satisfy the following
  criteria
• Address the detection, monitoring, and prediction
  of regional phenomena of particular interest.
• Engage experts in the phenomena of interest.
• Involve stakeholders in planning, operation, and
  evaluation of the testbeds.
• Define expected outcomes, including transition to
  operations, strategies for achieving them, and
  measures of success.
• Provide special observing networks (and people,
  communications, and databases) needed for pilot
  studies and research
• Provide resources for the generation and delivery
  of experimental products based upon these
  observations.

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Testbed Observing System Perspectives

• Obs. System Priorities
• Reliability
• Cost Effectiveness
• Commercial Availability
• Continuity

• Obs. System Priorities
• Proof of Concept
• Early demonstration
• Higher Resolution
• Multiple Sensors
• New Variables

Testbed Domain
RD
Operations
Improved User Decisions
Basic RD
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Presentation Outline

• Workshop goals and background
• Recommendations of the Modeling Data
  Assimilation Workgroup
• Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
• Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
• Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and
  International
• Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
• Synergies with the NWS Strategic Plan and STIP
• Four Overarching Recommendations

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Mesoscale observing programs are proliferating
How can we build on them?

• x

Coastal Storms

• Mesowest
• ARM CART
• Oklahoma Mesonet
• Texas Mesonet

• AIRMAP
• Hi-res temperature
• forecasts for energy sector

• Land-falling storms
• (PACJET)
• Air Quality
• Fire Weather
• Energy, Water, Air
• Quality Issues

Coastal Storms
North American Monsoon Experiment
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A New England Testbed for Improved Temperature
Forecasting for Electric Power Industry
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A National Testbed for Hydrometeorological and
Severe Storm Research and Development

• The National Severe Storms Laboratory in
  collaboration with the NWS Office of Hydrologic
  Development is currently establishing a national
  hydrometeorological testbed for the research and
  development of multi-sensor applications.
• A key component of the testbed is the National
  Mosaic and Quantitative precipitation estimation
  (NMQ) system for the creation and deployment of
  high-resolution quantitative precipitation
  estimation applications over North America for
  flash flood detection and prediction, fresh water
  resource management, and severe weather detection
  and prediction.
• The NMQ project will function as a
  community-based RD program that integrates
  multiple observational data streams and technique
  development environment, and real-time
  verification and performance assessments on a
  national scale across small time and space
  resolutions.

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Helsinki Testbed 2005-2006

• Mesoscale weather research
• Forecast and dispersion models development and
  verification
• Observing systems and strategies test and
  design
• Information systems and technology integration
• End-user product development and demonstration
• Data distribution for public and research
  community

Observing Facilities (preliminary) 1 dual-pol
Doppler radar 4 C-band Doppler radars 101
surface wx stations 191 road weather stations
42 two-level AWS masts 3 shipboard weather
stations 11 backscatter lidars 1 UHF wind
profiler 3 RAOB sounding stations 34
precipitation sites (part of 101)
satellite obs. (GS and PO) COSMIC RI
soundings EUCOS operational network
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Helsinki Testbed
Radars and Precipitation Stations
All HTB Stations
20km
R60km
dual-pol Doppler C-band
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Beijing Testbed 2006-2008
770km
150km
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BMMB Observational Network Development Plan
(eff. July 2003)
150km
Source CMA, July 2003
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Presentation Outline

• Workshop goals and background
• Recommendations of the Modeling Data
  Assimilation Workgroup
• Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
• Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
• Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and
  International
• Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
• Synergies with the NWS Strategic Plan and STIP
• Four Overarching Recommendations

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Implementation of Integrated Mesoscale
Observing-Forecasting Systems

• Focus Explore the potential for forming a
  consortium of public-private partners to
  implement a national mesoscale observing network
  based on the needs of the user communities,
  including
• Modeling community
• General public
• Commercial markets
• Drivers What are the major drivers of
  partnerships for mesoscale observing networks?

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Stakeholders for observational data and forecasts
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Business Model Framework

• Entry conditions of the consortium
• Intellectual property ownership
• Ownership of data (data rights)
• Ownership of equipment
• Maintenance operational responsibilities
• Cost sharing
• Revenue sharing
• Liability/Indemnification of the partners
• Exit strategy

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Strengths of a Successful Partnership
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Implementation recommendations

• A partnership arrangement was proposed for
  creation of consortia to develop, maintain and
  support regional mesoscale networks or even a
  composite national network.
• The proposed network(s) would consist of a mix of
  privately owned measurement systems, publicly
  owned systems and newly acquired systems supplied
  by the consortia.
• Each consortium collects and quality-controls the
  data, and supports the real-time dissemination of
  data and information products (e.g. analyses and
  forecasts).
• Consortium members share rights, costs and
  revenues according to a participation formula
  (tbd)
• Typical member roles
• The public sector members access the data for the
  public good i.e. public safety.
• The private-sector consortium members (and
  possibly academic partners) use the data to
  create and sell various value-added products.
• Academia and non-profit research centers have
  access to the data for educational and research
  purposes.

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Presentation Outline

• Workshop goals and background
• Recommendations of the Modeling Data
  Assimilation Workgroup
• Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
• Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
• Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and
  International
• Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
• Synergies with the NWS Strategic Plan and STIP
• Four Overarching Recommendations

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Synergies with NWS Strategic Plan and STIP

• Close fit with three of the five NOAA goals
• Serve societys needs for weather and water
  information.
• Support U.S. commerce with info for safe,
  efficient, environmentally sound transportation.
• Provide critical support (infrastructure) for
  NOAAs mission. (Testbeds build infrastructure.)
• Testbeds are vehicles to
• Monitor and observe emphasis on new observing
  technologies / strategies in critical weather
  situation
• Assess and predict observations used in
  real-time by line forecasters and tested in
  prediction models
• Engage, advise, and inform products (warnings,
  watches, advisories, numerical forecast guidance)
  disseminated and used
• Understand and describe risk reduction and
  product improvement resulting from tests of new
  data as applied to specific problems in
  operational setting

continued
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Synergies with NWS Strategic Plan and STIP
(concluded)

• Recurring theme in workshop recommendations is
  need for
• Boundary layer observations
• Moisture observations
• Testbeds that gauge efficacy of new or extended
  observing systems in operational setting
• Fully consistent with most NWS GPRA goals for FY
  2010 as expressed in Strategic Plan,
  specifically
• Lead time, accuracy, false alarm rate for severe
  weather warnings
• Accuracy of Day 1 precipitation forecast
• Lead time for winter storm warnings
• Accuracy and false alarm rate for ceiling and
  visibility forecasts
• Accuracy of forecast for low-level winds

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Presentation Outline

• Workshop goals and background
• Recommendations of the Modeling Data
  Assimilation Workgroup
• Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
• Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
• Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and
  International
• Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
• Synergies with the NWS Strategic Plan and STIP
• Four Overarching Recommendations

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Four Overarching Recommendations to NWS

• Adopt the testbed concept as a priority mechanism
  for transitioning mesoscale observing and
  modeling advances from research to operations

• Form a multi-sector tiger team to develop a
  functional design for a working testbed, and
  recommend one or more testbeds for the most
  pressing unmet requirements.

• Take the lead in developing alliances with other
  public agencies who have complementary mesoscale
  needs (e.g. Dept. of Homeland Security EPA DoD)
  to leverage resources and minimize costs.

• Take the lead in developing a partnership among
  the public, academic and private sectors that
  will facilitate the establishment and ongoing
  support of mesoscale testbeds and, subsequently,
  operational mesoscale observing-forecasting
  enterprises

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Mesoscale Networks Observational needs
vs. Applications
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• ..end..end..end..end..end..
• fcarr_at_ou.edu
• walter.dabberdt_at_vaisala.com
• tom.schlatter_at_noaa.gov