Promoting Stability and Development in Fragile and Failed States Dr' Inder Sud Adjunct Professor of

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Promoting Stability and Development in Fragile
and Failed States Dr. Inder SudAdjunct
Professor of the Practice of Intl.
AffairsMonica FrancoisMA, International
Development StudiesElliott School of
International AffairsThe George Washington
University

• Conference on The Challenge of Globalization
  Reinventing Good Global Governance
• GW Center for Study of Globalization
• November 4, 2005

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When has the State Failed?

• When the basic functions of the State are no
  longer performed in Collapsed States (1995) by
  William I. Zartman
• Widespread internal conflict Task Force on
  State Failure
• Revolutionary wars
• Ethnic wars
• Adverse regime change
• Genocide and politicides

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Consequences of State Failure

• De facto or de jure loss of government legitimacy
• Domestic Effects conflict trap
• Neighborhood Effects conflict spillover arms
  spending economic consequences
• Global Effects havens for terrorists

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International Response 

• Post-Conflict Reconstruction
• Prevention of state failure

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Post-Conflict Reconstruction

• Massive inflow of foreign aid to improve services
  and create jobs
• Show quick and tangible results to cement the
  peace
• Use of contractors and non-governmental
  organizations to deliver services
• Significant technical assistance to build
  government functions Democracy focus 
• Bold economic and political reforms window of
  opportunity
• Coordinated multi-donor efforts

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II. Prevention of State Failure
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Determinants of potential state failure (SFTF)

• Quality of life material well-being of citizens
• International influences
• Openness to trade
• Conflicts in neighboring countries
• 3. Regime type
• Partial democracies more vulnerable than full
  democracies and autocracies
• No distinction between autocracies and
  democracies

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Determinants of State FailureAfrica-specific
factors

• Quality of life material well-being of citizens
• International influences
• Regime type
• Democracies much more likely to fail than
  autocracies!
• New or entrenched leaders vulnerable
• Ethnic discrimination
• 4. Unbalanced development

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Fragile States according to the World Bank

• Severe
• Afghanistan
• Angola
• Central African Republic
• Equatorial Guinea
• Haiti
• Liberia
• Myanmar
• Solomon Islands
• Somalia
• Sudan
• Zimbabwe
• Conflict affected countries

• Core
• Burundi
• Cambodia
• Comoros
• Democratic Republic of Congo
• Republic of Congo
• Guinea-Bissau
• Kosovo
• Lao PDR
• Nigeria
• Papua New Guinea
• Sao Tome and Principe
• Tajikistan
• Timor-Leste
• Togo
• Uzbekistan

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Approach to helping Fragile States

• Modest assistance because of weak/poor governance
• Alternative aid delivery mechanisms
• Promote simple and doable reforms
  (Zero-generation reforms)
• Build civil society to mobilize pressure agents
  for change
• Technical assistance to improve governance

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Issues

• Unfulfilled expectations
• Difficulty of delivering quick results
• Urban/capitol region bias
• Security constraints
• Large influx of money
• Waste and corruption
• Large foreign aid footprint
• Local elites

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Issues (Contd.)

• Re-building country vs. the state
• Alternative delivery mechanisms de-legitimize
  government
• Institution building a slow process
• Unrealistic reform agenda
• Focus on democracy promotion appropriate?
• Multiple and varied donor agendas

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Some Possible New Directions

• Focus on building key state institutions as
  primary objective
• Phase-in funds for post-conflict more slowly
  possibly more funds for fragile states
• Long-term commitments
• Greater national ownership budget support
  rather than projects
• Realism!