Tiziana Paccagnella Topics for Discussion

1
2nd SRNWP Workshop on Short Range Ensemble

• Topics for discussion
• Tiziana Paccagnella
• ARPA-.SIM

2
Cooperations
Scientific Issues
Already projects ongoing

• Sc. Coop.
• on case studies
• on a syst. basis

• Perturbations on Initial Conditions (considering
  interaction with boundaries for LAM EPS systems)
• Ensemble data assimilation
• Model perturbations parameters settings, stoc.
  Phys.
• Combination (multi-model) and Calibration
• Verification
• Users entrainment in EPS thinking
• how to fit requirements
• how facilitate their transition
• ..

Small targeted workshops

• Reports/Papers

Exchange of method. and free SW e.g. For
Validation/ Calibration/Combination
Exch. Of data

• TIGGE
• Cooperate to give an input to Global EPS about
  LAM EPS requirements.
• Implementation aspects
• Scientific aspects

Trying to get the best at the lowest cost from
existing systems
3
.. .. L
inks between global and regional EPSs In view of
the emphasis of THORPEX on high-impact weather,
the interfacing of global ensemble prediction
systems with LAM ensembles was considered to be
of particular importance. In that context, a key
question that TIGGE should address is the
following Will the use of TIGGE data as boundary
conditions in LAM ensembles (for existing
systems, see table in Appendix B) lead to
enhanced guidance for high impact weather
events? Regional models require lateral boundary
conditions from a global model at high temporal
resolution and either on all model levels or on
pressure levels, depending on the specifications
of the regional model. ..
..

• Initial / boundary conditions for LAMS
• ..
• ..
• Since one of the main goals of TIGGE is to
  address severe weather and LAMs are an integral
  part in the process of improving severe weather
  predictions, it might be useful to circulate a
  specific questionnaire amongst the LAM community
  for an exact definition of the specific LAM
  requirements.

4
Ensemble Systems in Europe (adapted from the
tables presented in the report on the 1st TIGGE
Work.)
5

• Everything concerning EPS is hard to be managed
  due to the nature of the modelling systems
  involved.
• TIGGE is a big opportunity for all the EPS
  community
• In this SRNWP framework we could cooperate to
  give an input to Global EPS about LAM EPS
  requirements.
• Implementation aspects
• Scientific aspects
• Severe Weather prediction was, and still is, one
  of the major reason for the development of
  Regional Ensemble Systems. We can contribute to
  the TIGGE system design also giving emphasis to
  the European Severe Weather.