Kalypso Nicolaidis

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European Angst and Turkish EU-topiaorHow
Turkey should play the EU game

• Kalypso Nicolaidis
• St Antony's College
• Oxford University
• Institut dEtudes Politiques de Paris

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Turkeys EU-topia?
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Europes contradictions...

• European contradictions / ambivalence...
• Ataturks Army democrats foe vs seculars
  friend
• Turkey as a model for Islam vs secular turkey
• Location exploiting Turkey links, importing
  instability
• Young mobile population cure to the granny boom
  vs fear of uncontrolled migration
• ....reflect realities
• Hope against fears, fears against hope

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European angstWho is us? (Fall 2004)The EUs
identity triangle
AMSTERDAM- Theo

• WASHINGTON Dubya

KIEV Viktor vs Viktor
globalization and the tyranny of small
differences 9/11 necessity and fear of
embracing Islam Enlargment fatigue
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The French malaise
1. Whither French Europe ? Gulliver syndrome,
french insecurity, German emancipation and the
Anglo-saxon plot 2. Whither our Republican
contract? Laicité and the fragile national
consensus 3. Whither the European
counterweight? Bushs crusade within the
crusade On a des lecons a recevoir de
personne!
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A Constitutional Moment?
The European Constitution A solution to all
our problems Europe as an actor in the
world transparency, efficiency, democracy
Constitution as a response to the democratic
deficit (the Monnet method and the necessary
sin) Referendum as the logical next step From
Euro-cracy to demoi-cracy the populist
constraint The French referendum resisting the
populist temptation.
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A Constitutional moment?
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A Constitutional moment?
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A Constitutional moment?
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Their EU-topia? Riding the wave
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The french debateTurkey the Constitution
Constitution
No
Yes

Reformist left Chirac/Minority UMP Stronger
Europe including Turkey
Extreme left Alter-mondialistes Anti-liberal
Europe Anti-xenophobia
Yes
Turkey
Mainstream Parliamentary right Some mainstream
left Fear of verstretch, Christian inspiration,
demagogy
Extreme right Fabius Sovereignists,
Traditionalists, Christian Fundamentalist,
nationalists
No
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Yes But on December 17Last Hurdles to a YES

• Cyprus and illusive recognition
• -gt member state vs sovereign states extension of
  the accession protocol
• Greece and reconciliation
• -gt empowering friends collusion at the top
• Austria and Croatia
• -gt straight bargain
• ...and the date is up to France
• -gt a decent delay

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Yes But on December 17Turkish arguments in
perspective

• 1. Prior commitment and respect for the word
  given
• -gt But euro-norms vs politics
• 2. Non-discrimination
• -gt Differentiation
• -gt TURKEY IS DIFFERENT(population, size,
  location economic, security potential)
• ... And this is a new era

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Yes But on December 17Technical vs Political
buts.

• Technical lessons and positive sum game
• Screening
• Benchmarks
• Left-over business
• Political contingent agreements
• Suspension clause (vs derailment)
• Acknowledgement of open-endedness (vs privileged
  partnership)
• Safeguard clause for the movement of people

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WHAT NEXT?THE NEXT DECADESpreading the pain in
Turkey

• Staying on course with the negotiations
• Reform momentum reform pace gt negotiation
• And what about the Turkish referendum?
• -gt compensating loosers
• -gt the lure of the Gaullist alternative
  discourse

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WHAT NEXT?Winnings hearts and minds in Europe

• 1. The essentialist argument will not go away...
• 2. Siding with EU progressists
• 3. A vision for a new Europe

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The European ideological map
Turkey is European
Yes
No

Essentialists
Traditionalists
No
Christian Democrats (some) social democrats
Euro-federalists Founding members
Turkey should enter the EU
Visionaries
Functionalists
Yes
Liberals, geo-strategists
Mainstream left Greens
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WHAT NEXT?Winnings hearts and minds in Europe
1. Confronting the essentialist argument From
fierce rebuttal to acknowledgement of hybrid and
complex realities

• Geography
• History
• Religion
• ...... Wisdom, patience and imagination

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WHAT NEXT?Winnings hearts and minds in Europe
2. Sifing with progressists.

• Sharing implementation scrutiny (Ankara
  principle) and celebrating dissent (freedom of
  expression/religion, women/minority rights, ill
  treatments)

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WHAT NEXT?Winnings hearts and minds in Europe
3. Defining our EU-topia

• The Slippery slope argument including not
  excluding Europes limes
• The federalist argument a political Europe is
  not a nation Size matters (beyond o-sum games-
  funds and institutions)
• L Europe puissance..and normative power Europe
• -gt strength from diversity

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Turkey...the Viagra of Europe!