DEVELOPMENTS IN TECHNOLOGY AND FUTURE ENERGY SUPPLY IN INDIA

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DEVELOPMENTS IN TECHNOLOGY AND FUTURE ENERGY
SUPPLY IN INDIA

• Anil Kakodkar a, Placid Rodriguez b, and Sriram
  Jayasimha c
• a Chairman, Atomic Energy Commission, Mumbai
  ,India
• b AICTE-INAE Distinguished Visiting Professor,
  Indian Institute of Technology Madras,Chennai.
• c Chairman,  Signion Systems Ltd., Hyderabad,
  India

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Top Primary Energy Consuming Countries 2002
MTOE
(10.6)
(3.5)
Account for 54 of world energy consumption
Source BP Statistical Review of World Energy,
June 2003
3
Per Capita Energy Consumption, 2002
(Kg/head/yr)
India - High potential for growth
Source EIA/BP population estimates based on 11
yr avg gr rate over 2001
4
Per Capita Electricity Consumption Human
Development Index (HDI)
Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite
index prepared on a scale of 0-1  measured by
three key components - longevity, knowledge and
income.
Source Human Development Report, 1998, World
Bank   World Development Indicators, 1999, World
Bank
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Table 1. Trends in Supply of Primary Energy in
India MTOE Supply
Estimated
demand
1953-54 1960-61
1970-71 1980-81 1990-91
2001-02 2006-07 2011-12
Source Government of India, Planning Commission,
Tenth Five Year Plan, Chapter 7 .3. 1
1MTOE 4.2 x 10 4 Tera Joules
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SHARE OF NON-COMMERCIAL ENERGY
1953-54 1980-81
2001-02 2011-12 SHARE
71 52
32 23..5 MOTE
64.13 108.48
139.02 170.25

• The decreasing share of non-commercial energy
  indicates increasing URBANISATION /
  INDUSTRIALISATION
• The data indicate that the rural population in
  India continues to rely on traditional
  biomass-based fuels (fuel wood, crop residues,
  and animal dung) for meeting its energy needs.
• The rural populace constitutes nearly 70 of the
  population in India and 96 of the rural
  households use bio-fuels, primarily for cooking.
• During the year 2001 02 the fuel wood
  consumption in India was 223 million tonnes and
  the consumption of animal dung and agro-waste was
  estimated at 130 million tonnes 1

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Table
2 Sectoral Composition of Commercial Energy
Consumption in India in 2001 2002
Sector Commercial Energy Sectoral Energy
Consumption consumed as
by fuel
MTOE Coal Natural
Petroleum Electric
Gas
Products Power
33 of electric power use in agriculture, 39 in
industry and 20 residential .
Source The Energy and Resources Institute
(TERI), Delhi 2
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GROWTH OF INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY (MW)
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Table 3Contribution of different fuel resources
to primary and electrical energy Primary Energy
(EJ), Year 2002-03 ( Estimated )
Energy Components Coal L
Crude NG Hydro NUC Non-con Total
Electricity (TWh), Year 2002-03
Electricity componenents
Thermal Hydro Nuc Non-Con
Total
1 Exa Joule 23.9 MTOE 277.78TWh Sources
Annual Reports of the year 2002-03 of Ministries
of Power, Coal, Oil Natural Gas,
Non-Conventional Energy, Central Electricity
Authority and Department of Atomic Energy 5
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Share of electric power consumption

• Industry 39
• Agriculture 33
• Transport 2.5
• Residential 20
• Other 5.5

The country has experienced severe shortages in
electricity during 200001, there was an average
shortage of 7.8 and a peak shortage of 13.0
6. It has now increased to 10 and 15
respectively 7.
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Table 1. Trends in Supply of Primary Energy in
India MTOE Supply
Estimated
demand
1953-54 1960-61
1970-71 1980-81 1990-91
2001-02 2006-07 2011-12
Source Government of India, Planning Commission,
Tenth Five Year Plan, Chapter 7 .3. 1
1MTOE 4.2 x 10 4 Tera Joules
12

Table 4 A survey of energy growth rate
projections for India
Study Period
Commercial Electrical


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Major assumptions in Grover-Chandra study

• Population of India stabilizes by 2050 at a level
  of 1.5 billion.
• Population growth Period
• 1.5
  2001-2010
• 1.2
  2011-2020
• 0.7
  2021-2030
• 0.4
  2031-2040
• 0.2
  2041-2050
• 0 gt
  2050
• Population growth rate during 1991-2000 was 1.99

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Major assumptions in Grover-Chandra study

• 2. There are two indicators pointing to the fact
  that India is already on a path of growth and
  development
• One is that the energy intensity of India (for
  the year 2001) is the same as in OECD Countries,
  when GDP is calculated in terms of Purchasing
  Power Parity (PPP).
• Energy GDP elasticity, which is the ratio of
  the growth rate in energy to the growth rate in
  GDP has been continuously decreasing since the
  mid-seventies from the steady value of 1.3 for
  the previous two decades. Electricity-GDP
  elasticity which was as high as 3.0 in the mid
  sixties has also been decreasing and in 1991-2000
  was 1.213 for the same period the primary
  energyGDP elasticity has come down to 0.907.

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Energy Intensity Ratio of Total Primary
Energy Supply to GDP TOE/ 000 95 US
MERMARKET EXCHANGE RATE
PPP PURCHASING POWER
PARITY
FOR CANADA,USA, INDIA,CHINA, OECD, NON-OECD
EUROPE, RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND MIDDLE EAST CHART
PREPARED FROM Key World Energy Statistics,
Selected energy indicators for 2001,
International Energy Agency, 2003 edition
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Major assumptions in Grover-Chandra study

• 3.The future GDP growth rates of India WILL
  FOLLOW the projections made by Dominic Wilson
  and Roopa Prushothamn, Dreaming with BRICs The
  Path to 2050 Global Economics Paper No. 99,
  Goldman Sachs, 1st Oct. 2003 (https//www.gs.com
  )
• 4. The primary energy intensity fall in India
  will be 1.2 /yr , extrapolating the electricity
  intensity fall from past data till 2022 and
  subsequently a constant fall of 1.2 /yr, the
  growth rates of the primary energy and electrical
  energy have been estimated as follows.

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Table 5. Estimated growth rates of primary and
electrical energy in India
Based on the growth rates given in the above
table, the total electricity generation would
reach about 8000 TWhr in the year 2052 with a
per capita electricity consumption of 5300 kWhr
per year. The installed capacity for electricity
generation would be 1344GWe. By then, the
cumulative energy expenditure will be about 2400
EJ.
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Meeting the Increasing Energy Demand in the
Coming Decades

• Energy security means the availability of energy
  at all times in several forms, in sufficient
  quantities and at affordable prices. These
  conditions must prevail over the long term, if
  energy is to contribute to sustainable
  development.
• However, it is a fact, that except for renewable
  energy sources, all other sources of energy,
  fossil and nuclear fuel, are unevenly distributed
  among countries. Import is therefore inevitable
  in the current globalized world environment.
• Nevertheless every county has to evolve a
  strategy for energy security that ensures that a
  major portion of the energy is derived from
  indigenous sources.

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Table 6.Primary Energy Electricity Resources
in India Resource Amount
Thermal Energy Electricity potential

EJ TWh GWYr GWeYr


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The strategies and options for meeting the growth
in energy demand in India therefore are
multi-pronged

• More efficient use of fuels and energy .
• Exploration for increasing fossil fuel reserves.
• Harnessing full potential for hydro-generation of
  electricity.
• Increasing use of non-fossil resources nuclear
  and nonconventional.
• Competitive import of energy and energy
  resourceswhenever and wherever possible based on
  geo-political considerations and feasibility from
  technoeconomical consideration.
• Search for alternate energy sources.

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More Efficient Use of Fuels and Energy

• Reforms to provide an environment that,
  encourages free and fair competition in each
  element of the energy value chain and would
  attract capital from all sources
  Public,Private,Domestic and Foreign.
• The 2001 Energy Conservation Act which makes it
  mandatory, through a Bureau of Energy Efficiency
  (BEE) to practice stringent energy conservation
  norms for energy generation, supply and
  consumption.
• Bring down the average transmission and
  distribution losses to the range 8 15.
• There is also considerable scope for improving
  the energy efficiency in industry as well as in
  the Agriculture and Transport sectors.
• There is also a move to reduce subsidies.
  Although subsidies cannot be completely
  eliminated, greater transparency and equity can
  be achieved by transferring all subsidies to
  Central/ State Government Budgets and ensuring
  that the benefits of subsidies reach the targeted
  beneficiaries.

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Exploration for Increasing Fossil Fuel Reserves

• New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP), first
  announced in 1997, which permits foreign
  involvement in exploration, an activity long
  restricted to Indian state-owned firms.
• Between 1999 and 2003, through four rounds of
  bidding, more than 100 blocks have been awarded
  to joint ventures between Indian and foreign
  companies and Indian Public Sector Consortiums.
• Another strategy is to encourage Indian companies
  to tap opportunities available for exploration
  rights abroad. The major Indian Company ONGC has
  acquired such rights from Russia (Sakhalin-I) and
  Vietnam.
• Other actions include increasing the refining
  capacity, improved/ enhanced oil recovery,
  strategic storing of crude and minimizing the oil
  intensity of the economy without compromising on
  the pace of economic development.

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Harnessing Full Potential for Hydro-Generation of
Electricity

• Viable hydro-potential 84 GW at 60 load
  factor
• ( 1,48,700 MW installed capacity).
• Only about 18 of this potential is installed
  another 11 is under various stages of
  development .
• It is planned to exploit all possible
  hydro-energy sources.
• An initiative for addition of 50000MW
  hydro-capacity has been launched in May 2003.
• It is further envisaged that the full hydro-
  potential of 150GW would be installed by the year
  2026.

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Table 6.Primary Energy Electricity Resources
in India Resource Amount
Thermal Energy Electricity potential

EJ TWh GWYr GWeYr


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10 GWe 33 Yrs 420 GWe 100Yrs
500GWe 300 Yrs
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FIRST STAGE
SECOND STAGE
Indian Nuclear Power Programme Current Status
Fast Breeder Test Reactor (40 MWt ) Set up
THIRD STAGE
Developed 540 Mwe PHWRs Construction in
progress Unit size being scaled up to 680 MWe
Experimental reactor with U233 fuel in
operation. Thorium Bundles in PHWRs.
Design for 500 MWe PFBR developed. Construction
to commence in June 2004 .
AHWR-300 Mwe being developed in BARC. Technology
Demonstration for electricity generation from
Thourium.
Developed Front End Back End Technologies of
Complete Fuel Cycle
Bridge between the I III Stages to be Launched
in X plan
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Indian Nuclear Power Programme
CAPACITY (MWe)
CUMULATIVE CAPACITY (MWe)
REACTOR TYPE AND CAPACITIES

• ? 14 reactors at 6 sites under operation
  2,770 2,770
• Tarapur, Rawatbhata, Kalpakkam,
• Narora, Kakrapar and Kaiga
• 6 PHWRs under construction at
  1,960 4,730
• Tarapur (2x540 MWe),Kaiga (2x220 MWe),
• RAPS-56(2x220 MWe)
• 2 LWRs under construction at 2,000
  6,730 Kudankulam(2x1000 MWe)
• PFBR at Kalpakkam (1 X 500 MWe)
  500 7,230
• (Pre-project activity in progress)
• ? Projects planned till 2020 13,900
  21,130
• PHWRs(8x700 MWe), FBRs(4x500 MWe),
• LWRs(6x1000 MWe), AHWR(1x300 MWe)
• ? TOTAL by 2020 21,180
  MWe

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Competitive with contemporary coal thermal.
Concept of introducing pooled tariff is being
tried on regional basis.
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Projects Under Construction
Scheduled
Physical
Capacity
Project
Commercial
Progress
MWe
Operation
U4

Oct 05
On Schedule.
2x540
TAPP
-
34
U3
-
July 06
U3

Dec 06
On Schedule
2x220
Kaiga
-
34
U4

June 07
U1

Sept 07
On Schedule
2x1000
KK
-
12
U2

Sept 08
U5

May 07
On Schedule
2x220
RAPP
-
56
U6

Nov 08
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• Annual electricity generation would increase from
  about 638 TWh in 2002-03 to about 7957 TWhr in
  2052-53.
• Approximate percentage contributions of various
  resources towards electricity generation in the
  year 2052-53 will be coal-47, hydrocarbon-16,
  hydro-8, non-conventional renewable-4 and
  nuclear-26 .
• Annual primary energy consumption would increase
  from about 13.5 EJ in 2002-03 to about 117 EJ in
  2052-53.

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• Total Installed power capacity will go up from
  about 137 GWe in 2002-03 to about 1344 GWe in
  2052-53.
• Installed capacity distribution will be
  coal-46, hydrocarbon-15, gas-10, hydro-11,
  non-conventional renewable-7, and nuclear-20.

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Increasing Use of Non-Conventional Energy

• Today, India has perhaps the only Ministry of
  Non-Conventional Energy Sources in the world.
• The country has the largest solar energy
  program, the second largest biogas and improved
  cook stoves program and the fifth largest wind
  power program in the world.
• The renewable energy sources have begun to
  emerge as an attractive option, sometimes the
  only one, to provide light and power to areas too
  remote for grid electrification.
• Promotion of renewable energy sources is an
  integral component of the countrys strategy for
  sustainable development.

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Table 7. Renewable energy potential and
achievements in India24Sources/ Technologies
Units
Potential Achievements


2002-03
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Co-Generation in India Status And Prospects for
Renewable Energy Sources

• The growing gap between energy supply and energy
  demand, has led to widespread co-generation.
• Indian households and firms are increasingly
  reliant on diesel generators (DG) and, for
  certain applications, inverters and
  uninterruptible power supplies (UPS), for energy
  security/backup.
• The total installed capacity today of 136973 MWe
  includes 29000 MWe of captive power capacity and
  1,07,973 MWe of electrical utilities the captive
  power capacity is nearly 27 0f the capacity of
  utilities.
• The Indian UPS market size is also growing at
  about 300MW/ year (Table 8).

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Table 8. Indian UPS market segments
and growth
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Figure 2. Cash outflow per MWh, for daytime use,
_at_ 7 finance, 5 p.a. fuel price rise, 27
conversion efficiency, 1MWp DG and RG at 200,000
and 2,500,000 capital cost, 60 and 30
utilization and 3.5 and 1.25 p.a. maintenance
(DG overhaul, RG batteries )
RG compare favorably with DG over a 20-year
horizon as shown in
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Figure 3. Hybrid-source UPS (left), SPV array and
wind generator (right)
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Table 7. Renewable energy potential and
achievements in India24Sources/ Technologies
Units
Potential Achievements
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• Total Installed power capacity will go up from
  about 137 GWe in 2002-03 to about 1344 GWe in
  2052-53.
• Installed capacity distribution will be
  coal-46, hydrocarbon-15, gas-10, hydro-11,
  non-conventional renewable-7, and nuclear-20.

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Search for Alternate Energy Sources

• Th/U-233 cycle will be the mainstay beyond 2050.
• The other alternate energy sources relevant for
  the future are
• Coal bed methane,
• Gas hydrates,
• Hydrogen and
• Nuclear fusion.

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Th/U-233 Cycle

• Mastery of Th fuel cycle- extraction, fuel
  fabrication, irradiation to produce
• U-233,reprocessing,refabrication.
• 1984PURNIMA 2, Reactor experiment.
• 1996KAMINI 30 kW Reactor at Kalpakkam.
• Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AWHR), which
  extends the technology of PHWR for Th/U-233cycle.
  
• Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) in which high
  energy neutrons from a spallation reaction are
  directed to a sub-critical reactor containing
  thorium to produce U-233.

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Coal Bed Methane (CBM)

• India has an estimated 1000 Billion cubic meters
  of coal bed methane (CBM).
• A demonstration project is under implementation
  with UNDP support.
• Exploration and production activities are in
  progress.
• Development of CBM is important as it is a
  potential source of clean energy.

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Gas Hydrates

• There is a potential of 6156 cubic meters of gas
  hydrates and 600 million tons of oil shale in the
  Indian seabed.
• There is a program to exploit these in the
  future.
• For developing the technology of gas hydrates the
  Department of Ocean Development has a
  collaborative venture with the Russian Federation.

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Hydrogen

• A scenario, in which, hydrogen will replace
  hydrocarbons as the major primary energy source,
  particularly for automobiles.
• While hydrogen (in water) is so abundant in the
  earth, we need energy to produce it.
• Role for nuclear energy in the hydrogen economy.
• - Dissociation of water
• Nuclear radiation
• Thermal
• Electrochemical

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Nuclear Fusion Technology

• Both plasma and laser fusion studies are in
  progress.
• India is also assessing the advantages of joining
  the international cooperative program.

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CONCLUSION

• The demand for energy is expected to grow
  significantly in the next five decades, nine-fold
  to 117 EJ in the case of primary energy and
  twelve and half times to 8000 TWhe in the case
  of electricity.
• The concern for energy security will bring in an
  increasing share for hydro, non-conventional and
  nuclear energy in the primary commercial and
  electrical energy by 2052.

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CONCLUSION

• The share of nuclear energy will increase to 25,
  hydro to 11, and nonconventional to 4.
• The full potential of hydro, 6EJ would be reached
  by 2026.
• The Th/U-233 cycle, when successfully developed
  can give India energy security for five or more
  centuries.
• At the same time there is a need to look for new
  and alternate energy sources like coal bed
  methane, gas hydrates, hydrogen and nuclear
  fusion.

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