Rehabilitating Serbia's Power System

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Rehabilitating Serbia's Power System
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia

• By
• Aleksandar Kovacevic, UNDP
• Krsto Vukovic, EPS

Presented at
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Structure of Total Primary Energy Supply to
Serbia Montenegro excluding Kosovo in 2000
(12,8m toe total)
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Structure of Total Final Energy Supply to Serbia
Montenegro excluding Kosovo in 2000(7,9m toe
total)
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Electricity Consumption in Serbia Montenegro
1995 - 2002
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Structure of Electricity Generation during 2001
(Total 30111GWh)
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Equivalent utilization of coal fired units during
1994 - 2001
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Composition of electricity generation by coal
fired units
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TPP TENT B
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Struggle to supply cheap electricity

• Minimal cold reserve in the system
• Consuming reserves of open coal and the machinery
• Outstanding, while non commercial adjustment to
  demand
• Shifting of load according to energy efficiency
  and reliability

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Most difficult problems

• Lack of liquidity shortage of consumables and
  liquid fuels
• No coal quality management quality fluctuations
  
• Long overhaul periods
• Focus on critical equipment in order to prevent
  non repairable failures

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Consequences

• Decrease of availability
• Boiler piping is the most frequent outage
• Very few major technical failures
• Continuous growth of failure risks according to
  Weibull statistical distribution
• Increased requirements for water and liquid fuels
  i.e. liquidity

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Surface Vicious Circle
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Specific Consumption of Coal
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Specific Consumption of Mazut
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Overall Consumption of Mazut
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Forced Outages Ratio at Major Thermal Power Plants
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Overall use of available time and outages per
sort for major thermal units
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External Assistance in 1996 / 1997

• Following electricity shortage the Government
  provided significant assistance
• Very slow implementation
• Focus on preventive measures
• Short lasting benefits

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External Assistance in 2000 / 2002

• Three phases
• Emergency assistance during winter 2000 / 2001 to
  provide electricity imports, consumables and
  fuels.
• Preventive assistance during 2001 to prevent
  major failures and decrease outages
• Overhauls of selected units foreseen in 2002

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Major shifts in the nature of assistance in 2002

• From grants to loans financial viability
  required
• Decline in domestic implementation capacity
• Focus on few selected projects instead of
  widespread assistance

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• There is no sustainable, long lasting improvement
  in performance, financial viability, costs and
  probability of failures
• ?

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Overall utilization of coal fired thermal units
in EPS
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Utilization of comparable units at TPP Bitola
(3x225 MW) in Macedonia
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Application of the Macedonian performance to 3936
MW of thermal units in Serbia

• Sustainable electricity generation
• Over 2 billion of additional revenues
• New capacity of about 276 MW
• Improved fuel efficiency
• Credible financial operation

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• Beyond the maintenance of the pure electricity
  generation capability, long term assets
  management is missed with partial
  externalization of financial flows.

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• To which degree this conclusions and guidelines
  are applicable to commercialized plants in fully
  deregulated environment?
• With well supplied, regular operation Weibull
  probability law is not abolished.

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Internet Resources

• International
• www.seerecon.org
• www.undp.org.yu
• Ministry of Mining and Energy of Serbia
• www.mem.sr.gov.yu
• Utilities
• www.eps.co.yu
• www.epcg.cg.yu