Positioning NOAA for Tomorrows Challenges

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Positioning NOAA for Tomorrows Challenges

• Mary M. Glackin
• Acting Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans and
  Atmosphere
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
• AIAA National Capital Section, November 29, 2007

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Outline

• Vision and Mission
• NOAA Priorities
• Opportunities and challenges

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NOAAs Vision
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NOAAs Mission
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NOAA Funding Trends
( in Billions)

In FY03, the House did not report or pass an
SJC appropriations bill. The House-Introduced
bill total is used here.
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Outline

• Vision and Mission
• NOAA Priorities
• Opportunities and challenges

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Sustaining Critical Operations
NOAA Ship RON BROWN
Global Monitoring DivisionSouth Pole
Supercomputing System
Phased Array Radar
DART II Buoy,
Argo Floats
NOAAs Line Offices in the US
PI WP-3D Orion and Gulfstream Jet
Satellite Operations
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Enhancing Climate Monitoring and Research
Polar Orbiting Satellite (NOAA M)

• NOAA Observations and Research have been
  key in recent Climate
  assessments and reports.
• 50th Anniversary of the Global Carbon Dioxide
  Record
• NOAA has stepped up our efforts in improved
  Climate Services
• Key Functions
• Understand the Past and Current State
  
  of the Climate
  
• Advance predictive understanding and
  
  Skill about the future state of climate
• Assess evolving user needs and context
• Communicate
• Coordinate and collaborate
• Build on our existing capabilities

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Improving Weather Warnings and Forecasts

• Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasting
• 48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5/ year
  since 1985
• Reduction in track forecast errors by 33 in
  last 15 years
• Intensity forecasts have improved about 0.8 per
  year
• Hurricane forecast improvement plan under
  development
• Tornado Lead-Time Warning
• Lead times increased from 5 to 11 minutes
• Accuracy increased from 49 to 75
• Dual Polarization radar underway
• Exploring phased array radar technology

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Supporting the U.S. Ocean Action Plan

• Ocean Science and Research (60M)
• Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS)
• Hurricane Hazards Watershed Influences
• Ocean Health Initiative
• Protecting and Restoring Marine Coastal Areas
  (38M)
• Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
• Marine Debris
• Gulf of Mexico Regional Alliance
• Northeast Regional Ocean Council (NROC)
• West Coast Governors Agreement on Ocean Health
• Not funded
• Ensuring Sustainable Use of Ocean Resources
  (25M)
• Magnuson-Stevens Act Reauthorization
  Implementation
• National Offshore Aquaculture Act
• Coral Reef Ecosystems Conservation Act

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Outline

• Vision and Mission
• NOAA Priorities
• Opportunities and challenges

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U.S. Leadership in Earth Observations

• Developing a Global Earth Observation System of
  Systems (GEOSS) for Societal Benefit
• Improve Weather Forecasting
• Reduce Loss of Life and Property from Disasters
• Protect and Monitor our Ocean Resource
• Understand Climate Change
• Combat Land Degradation
• Understand Environmental Factors on
• Human Health
• Develop Capacity to Make Ecological Forecasts
• Protect and Monitor Water Resources
• Monitor and Manage Energy Resources

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Balancing Priorities In the Future
NPOESS
Smart WeatherBalloons
GOES-R
Chesapeake Bay Interpretive Buoy System (CBIBS)
AltairUnmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV)
NOAAs Environmental Real Time Observation
Network (NERON)
NOAA Profiler Network (NPN)
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Improved Environmental Modeling

• NOAAs Modeling Capabilities are Broad and
  Expanding
• Example Climate Models, OSSEs
• Goal Increase model resolution and complexity
• Result More computationally expensive to run
• Adding the global carbon cycle makes the model 2x
  as computationally expensive to run
• Adding chemistry to address global air quality
  and climate change makes the model 3x as
  expensive to run

200 km resolution Current Climate Model
10x more computational power
50 km resolution Short-term Target
4 km resolution Observations
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Climate Change as Emerging Political Imperative

• warming of the climate system is unequivocal.

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Climate Change as Emerging Political Imperative
(cont.)

• Assess evolving user needs and context
• Assess Climate, Impacts and Adaptation
• Climate Services Development and Delivery

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Research to Practical Applications
Improving Hurricane Forecasting
Mean Absolute Error of the 1985-2006 NHC
Atlantic Intensity and Track Forecasts
Track
Intensity
48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5 per year
on average since 1985, while intensity forecasts
have improved about 0.8 per year
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Archiving Data Stewardship

• The Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship
  System (CLASS) is NOAAs premier on-line facility
  for the distribution of NOAA and DOD
  meteorological satellite data.

NPOESS
GOES-R
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Positioning NOAA for Success

• Partnering
• Advanced planning with partners and stakeholders
• Research to applications Taking a proactive
  approach
• Rigorous management of acquisitions
• Continued focus on operational service delivery

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Positioning NOAA for Tomorrows Challenges

• Mary M. Glackin
• Acting Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans and
  Atmosphere
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
• AIAA National Capital Section, November 29, 2007