Wholesale Power Price Forecast 012803 Current Trends Update

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Wholesale Power Price Forecast01/28/03 Current
Trends Update

• March 11, 2003

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Major updates since AR forecast

• AURORA vendor updates
• updated model version
• revised default curtailment blocks
• finer WECC load-resource area definition (Baja
  S. NV)
• Adjusted scope of PNW East MT load-resource
  areas.
• Updated inventory of post-2000 completions and
  projects under construction.
• Heavy scrubbing of existing thermal resource
  data.
• NPPC revised load growth forecasts (PNW other
  LRAs).
• NPPC revised fuel price forecasts and pricing
  structure.
• NPPC revised new resource characteristics.
• Reshaped seasonal distribution of planned
  outages.
• Added scheduled upgrades to LRA transfer capacity.

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Current Trends case key assumptions I

• Projects scheduled for completion are completed
  additional projects are market-driven.
• Suspended projects gt 25 complete available as
  new resource options at reduced capital cost.
• Projects scheduled for retirement are retired
  additional retirements are market-driven.
• 15/kW/yr point-to-point transmission basic
  ancillary services cost plus 1.9 transmission
  loss penalty (except cogen peaking units).
• NPPC medium case fuel price forecasts.

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Current Trends case key assumptions II

• NPPC medium case load forecasts.
• New resource options
• 540 MW gas-fired combined-cycle gas turbine
  (frame)
• 70 MW duct firing (power augmentation) for above
• 2 x 46 MW gas-fired simple-cycle gas turbine
  (aeroderivative)
• 100 MW wind plant
• 400 MW pulverized coal-fired steam-electric (ex.
  PNW-West CA)
• 20 MW central-station solar photovoltaics
• Permanent production incentive for new
  renewables.
• SBC and RPS resource development where adopted.
• Oregon CO2 offset requirement for all new fossil
  units.
• 7.50/MWh green tag revenue for new renewables.

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Price forecasts Mid-Columbia
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Levelized Mid-Columbia price forecast(200625)