NAESI: decision support process for habitat based biodiversity standards

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NAESI decision support process forhabitat
based biodiversity standards

• Objective To identify and develop a suite of
  habitat-based biodiversity standards that, if
  achieved, will sustain the complexity of habitat
  and natural species assemblages necessary to
  preserve ecological processes within the
  ecoregions of Canada.
• Suggested approach Ecosystem process targets
  (Biodiversity Predictors)
• Workplan strategy issues at hand / questions

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NAESI decision support process forhabitat
based biodiversity standards

• Question 1 What can we use to measure or predict
  levels of biodiversity required to maintain
  ecosystem function, processes and services within
  a given landscape?
• Question 2 What are the habitat area, quality,
  and placement requirements to sustain the full
  suite of biodiversity predictors (which are
  surrogates for ecological processes) over the
  landscape?

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NAESI Biodiversity Standards Workplan overview

• Phase I Identify Representative biodiversity
  indicators
• 1. Identify ecosystem types
• 2. Identify goals/threats
• 3. Select Biodiversity Predictors
• 4. Establish Thresholds (population-based)
• Phase II Identify Process for Habitat-based
  biodiversity standards (place-based evaluation
  of landscape priorities, completed through an
  assessment of alternative land use scenarios).
• 1. Develop ideal habitat standards (habitat-based
  population thresholds)
• 2. Develop process for landscape-based threshold
  identification
• 3. Identify habitat-based landscape thresholds
  for BPs
• Phase III Refine Process/Identify Habitat-based
  biodiversity standards in other study
  areas/ecoregions.
• 1. Apply and refine modeling methodologies in
  agricultural ecoregions across Canada
• 2. Apply and test process for establishing
  habitat-based landscape thresholds from Phase II
  (Step 3) in all eco-regions

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• Suggested Approach for proceeding on workplan
• -Review questions/issues to be clarified (Nov
  9/10)
• -Develop direction/strategy to address areas in
  need of attention (Nov 9/10)
• -Form/identify tactical groups for Phase I/Phase
  II work (Nov 9)
• core working group (subgroups)
• primary advisory/synthesis group (internal)
• secondary advisory group (external)
• -Align interrelated subgroup activities
  (coordination lt-gt feedback) (Nov-April)

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• Phase I Identify Representative biodiversity
  indicators

Threats Habitat loss Habitat conversion Habitat
fragmentation Landuse/habitat activities/dynamics

• Ecosystem Goals (process)
• Structural diversity
• Compositional diversity
• Functional diversity

Biodiversity Predictors Qualities (indicators of
change) a. Each tracks changes in ecosystem
features of interest b. The suite of BPs
considers different spatio-temporal scales,
levels of complexity, and specialization
BP Thresholds Population based
Question 1 What can we use to measure or predict
levels of biodiversity required to maintain
ecosystem function, processes and services within
a given landscape?
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• Phase I Identify Representative biodiversity
  indicators

Threats Habitat loss Habitat conversion Habitat
fragmentation Landuse/habitat activities/dynamics

• Ecosystem Goals (process)
• Structural diversity
• Compositional diversity
• Functional diversity

Biodiversity Predictors Qualities (indicators of
change) a. Each tracks changes in ecosystem
features of interest b. The suite of BPs
considers different spatio-temporal scales,
levels of complexity, and specialization
What ecological processes do we include?
Considerations -spatial dynamics (ecosystem,
regional) -process dynamics -temporal
aspects (historic vs. current) -complexity
(compositional, structural, etc)
BP Thresholds Population based
Question 1 What can we use to measure or predict
levels of biodiversity required to maintain
ecosystem function, processes and services within
a given landscape?
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• Phase I Identify Representative biodiversity
  indicators

Threats Habitat loss Habitat conversion Habitat
fragmentation Landuse/habitat activities/dynamics

• Ecosystem Goals/targets
• Structural diversity
• Compositional diversity
• Functional diversity

Biodiversity Predictors Qualities (indicators of
change) a. Each tracks changes in ecosystem
features of interest b. The suite of BPs
considers different spatio-temporal scales,
levels of complexity, and specialization
What are selection criteria for
BPs? Considerations -spatial dynamics
(dispersal/recolonization) -data /
relationship information -response time/lag
times -complexity (succession, age structure,
composition, etc)
BP Thresholds Population based
Question 1 What can we use to measure or predict
levels of biodiversity required to maintain
ecosystem function, processes and services within
a given landscape?
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• Phase I Identify Representative biodiversity
  indicators

Threats Habitat loss Habitat conversion Habitat
fragmentation Landuse/habitat activities/dynamics

• Ecosystem Goals/targets
• Structural diversity
• Compositional diversity
• Functional diversity

Biodiversity Predictors Qualities (indicators of
change) a. Each tracks changes in ecosystem
features of interest b. The suite of BPs
considers different spatio-temporal scales,
levels of complexity, and specialization
How do we set BP thresholds? Considerations
-natural vs. anthropogenic land-use
disturbances -habitat quality effects
(sensitivity) -temporal goals (y
generations?) -minimum vs. functional population
size
BP Thresholds Population based
Question 1 What can we use to measure or predict
levels of biodiversity required to maintain
ecosystem function, processes and services within
a given landscape?
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• Phase I Identify Representative biodiversity
  indicators

QUESTIONS 1. What criteria do we use to define
individual ecosystems? 2. How do we go about
selecting a set of ecological processes/
functions that are affected by habitat stressors
at detectable levels and appropriate scales? 3.
What are the characteristics of BPs to be
included in selection? What is selection process?
How are data limitations managed (degree of
resolution needed?)? 4. What are the
limits/criteria for including BPs (data
quality/resolution)? What do we do if BP-Process
links are limiting? How do we deal with data
shortages/limitations? (cut off to exclude
species vs. gap filling, habitat elements as
alternative?) How do we deal with differences in
data resolution and scale? 5. How do we define
thresholds for populations? (Local vs.
metapopulation limits time scale based?)
Should threshold be set as the Minimum viable
populations or as the functional population
target size? How might current or historic levels
be incorporated?
Question 1 What can we use to measure or predict
levels of biodiversity required to maintain
ecosystem function, processes and services within
a given landscape?
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Phase II Identify Process for Habitat-Based
Biodiversity Standards
Threats Habitat loss Habitat conversion Habitat
fragmentation Landuse/habitat activities/dynamics
What is Landscape Threshold for
BPs? Considerations -natural vs.
anthropogenic land-use disturbances -spatial and
temporal habitat quality changes/issues (eg.,
succession, farm abandonment) -minimum vs.
functional population size
Biodiversity Predictors
Dynamic Landscape Simulations
BP Thresholds Population based
Question 2 What are the habitat area, quality,
and placement requirements to sustain the full
suite of biodiversity predictors (which are
surrogates for ecological processes) over the
landscape?
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Phase II Identify Process for Habitat-Based
Biodiversity Standards
How achievable are the IDEAL HABITAT STANDARDS?
Considerations -minimum habitat patch
size (quality) -maximum distance between
patches -habitat targets
-connectivity -agricultural intensity
(impacts) -contribution of existing
BMPs/conservation direction
Threats Habitat loss Habitat conversion Habitat
fragmentation Landuse/habitat activities/dynamics
Biodiversity Predictors
Dynamic Landscape Simulations
BP Thresholds Population based
Question 2 What are the habitat area, quality,
and placement requirements to sustain the full
suite of biodiversity predictors (which are
surrogates for ecological processes) over the
landscape?
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Evaluate existing conservation approaches in
meeting biodiversity standards

• Scenarios
• a. Current landscape (current dynamics, habitat
  quality evaluation)
• b. Presettlement conditions (reference standard)
• BMP/other conservation directions/adoption
• i.e., differential adoption of agricultural
  BMPs, forestry BMPs, farm abandonment, etc
• d. Future landscape - based on current trend
  (prognosis, climate change)
• e. Ideal standards - conservation priority
  scenario, or conservation potential scenario
  (based on ideal standards, reintroductions, etc)
• Agricultural intensification/change
• i.e., changes in nature or intensity of
  agricultural/other land use, invasive species
• Question do we include other changes?

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Phase II Identify Process for Habitat-Based
Biodiversity Standards
QUESTIONS 1. What approach should be used to
identify Ideal Habitat Standards? -test
standard set of patch scenarios in landscape
(identify limits/best fit) -develop process to
build ideal landscape based on existing
features 2. What suite of scenarios need to be
considered to -identify threshold population
sizes -evaluate alternative land use/management
scenarios (BMPs, etc)? 3. What is the best
strategy to move towards this? Start the process
in EO using a generalized approach or begin with
some degree of refinement and modify in
subsequent study areas?
Question 2 What are the habitat area, quality,
and placement requirements to sustain the full
suite of biodiversity predictors (which are
surrogates for ecological processes) over the
landscape?
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• NEXT STEPS Suggested Approach for proceeding on
  workplan
• -Break-out groups to discuss questions (Phase I
  II)
• -Form tactical groups for Phase I/Phase II work
• -Alignment of interrelated subgroup activities
  (coordinate timing)

Biodiversity Standards Process

• Expert Subject groupings
• Natural/agricultural information
• Local (species/stressor)
• System (disturbance, function)
• Regional/National (pattern)
• Process
• GIS/geophysical

Project level groupings Practical/Steering
groups (phase I/II) a. Core working group b.
Primary advisory - synthesis group
(internal) c. Secondary advisory group(s)
(external)
Conceptual
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Criteria for selecting modeling tools

• 1) PVA Modeling
• -has spatial and aspatial capabilities
• -effects of habitat quality and quantity on
  population viability can be considered (including
  restoration activities) i.e., can manipulate
  spatial files easily.
• -considers allee effects, inbreeding, trophic
  dynamics, demographic structure, competition
  (invasive species), dispersal, stochastic events
  (natural and anthropogenic agricultural
  practices/intensity fragmentation intensity,
  pollution)
• -can be used for a range of different taxa
  (includes age structuring)
• metapopulation models (structure) can be easily
  manipulated
• -can run in conjunction with dynamic succession
  models
• -dynamic habitat modeling possible
• -habitat relationships can be linked to dynamic
  model
• -can consider climate change data (or
  outputs/inputs can be adapted to do so)

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Criteria for selecting modeling tools

• 2) Habitat Modeling (GIS Dynamic Scenario
  Modeling spatially explicit)
• Objective 1 - assess potential of landscape to
  support different habitat types (historic/future)
• -distribution and characteristics of habitat
  features can be attributed (composition,
  abundance, age class, features relevant for PVA
  models, etc)
• -can run succession for multiple community types
  for 1-to-n generations
• - variety of different disturbances can be
  incorporated/run (anthropogenic and natural)
• -can be run simultaneously with PVAs or, outputs
  can be loaded readily into PVA tool
• Objective 2 develop framework protocol for
  habitat requirement assessment (for each BP)
• - can run and input a series of patch
  distribution options (i.e., combinational patch
  size proximity density strategies) that can
  be easily modified/adapted to the specific
  habitat requirements of each BP
• - habitat requirements of multiple BPs are
  combined (algorithm to do so)
• Objective 3 - evaluate alternative management
  strategies (both local and regional effects)
• -can be set up to run a series of interactive
  (within reason) alternative scenarios
  (multi-generational).

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Criteria for selecting modeling tools

• 3) Other Considerations
• - potential to link dynamic model with hydrologic
  models (adaptable inputs/outputs)
• - programming accessible for modification (not
  black box)
• - outputs allow temporal trend analyses
• - transition rates can be set to
  increase/decrease over time to gauge cumulative
  impacts
• - we will eventually want a user friendly
  interface that allows user to incorporate and
  test their preferences in each of the scenarios
  (i.e., user-defined scenarios that can be adapted
  to address local conditions/issues)
• - would like to link biomass models and
  vegetation growth models at some point
• - should provide quantitative output that will
  allow evaluations of proximity, relative quality,
  etc. of different habitat components (eg., to
  assess habitat requirements for species with
  complex habitat requirements, like amphibians)
• - should be capable of producing outputs linked
  to reporting indicators (agricultural, forestry,
  other)
• - must be able to run with varying completeness
  of data and resolution of data (flexible)