Get Ready to ShakeOut! Presented By: Don Maus

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Get Ready to ShakeOut!Presented ByDon
Maus
November 1216, 2008
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Great Shakeout Objectives

• Share the latest understanding of our earthquake
  hazards and potential losses
• Develop a realistic scenario for the annual
  statewide Golden Guardian exercise
• Motivate people to prepare

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Southern California is Earthquake Country(Major
Earthquakes Since 1933)
7.1 Hector Mine Earthquake in 1999
6.7 Northridge Earthquake
1933 Long Beach Quake
There are over 30 earthquakes a day in Southern
California
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Developers of the ShakeOut Scenario

• USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP)
• Lucy Jones, Chief Scientist
• Dale Cox, Project Manager
• Sue Perry, Staff Scientist
• 10 Section Leaders
• Earth and Computer Science
• Ken Hudnut, USGS
• Dan Ponti, USGS
• Mike Reichle, CGS
• Engineering
• Keith Porter, EERI
• Hope Seligson, MMI Engineering
• Public Health
• Kim Shoaf, UCLA
• Disaster Sociology
• Dennis Mileti, Seismic Safety Commission
• Jim Goltz, Governors Office of Emergency
  Services
• Disaster Economics
• Anne Wein, USGS

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Motivation for the Scenario FAQs
Scenario Components

• What will a big earthquake be like?
• Could a Katrina-like catastrophe happen here?
• To prepare, what are the best uses of limited
  resources?

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One Possible Big One

• Southernmost San Andreas
• 180 mile rupture
• Magnitude 7.8
• 100 seconds of fault rupture
• Shaking for over 2minutes in many places
• Dr. Lucy Jones (USGS) ledmany scientists,
  engineers,and others to create arealistic
  scenario of what willhappen.

Salton Sea
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Widespread Strong Ground Shaking

• Compare with2008 Chino Hillsearthquake
• 5000x smaller!
• Magnitude 5.4
• 0 deaths
• Minimal damage

Bakersfield
LosAngeles
Palm Springs
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Shaking of Long Duration
DURATION (Northridge strong shaking lasted
7-15 seconds)
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Onset and Duration of Shaking
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ShakeOut Scenario Disaster Equation

• Widespread Strong Ground Shaking
• Shaking of Long Duration

• 300,000 buildings significantly damaged
• Widespread infrastructure damage
• 213 billion damages
• 270,000 displaced persons
• 50,000 injuries
• 1,800 deaths

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These impacts do not include aftershocks

• Damaging aftershocks may occur fordecades after
  a magnitude 7.8
• Some may be more destructive
• Some will be larger than Northridge
• Will occur over a wide area
• Up to 51 magnitude 5 or greater the first week!
• Possible aftershock sequences
• Four aftershocks will be used in GoldenGuardian
  exercises this November
• Mag 7.2 ruptures through Inland Empiretoward
  Pasadena
• Mag 7.0 ruptures from Salton Seasouthward into
  Imperial County
• Mag 5.7 with epicenter in Rialto
• Mag 6.0 disrupts newly restored rail lines
  inCajon Pass

Distribution of aftershocks in Scenario
simulations
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Building Damage

• 300,000 significantly damaged (1 in 16)
• repairs cost at least 10 of replacement cost
• 45,000 complete losses (1 of all buildings)
• Unreinforced masonry (Brick. Most dangerous)
• 300 complete collapses
• most near the fault will be destroyed
• Retrofitting will save lives
• Older concrete buildings (almost as dangerous)
• 50 collapses
• 10 of this type in highest shaking areas may
  collapse
• 5 pancake collapse, 45 partial collapse
• 100 red tagged buildings
• 5,000 10,000 people in collapsed buildings
  (most survive)
• Pre-1994 Steelframe buildings (at risk, but less
  dangerous)
• High rises will receive intense long-period
  shaking
• Scenario assumes 5 collapses (not necessarily
  complete collapse)
• 10 red tags
• 11-15 stories, up to 1,000 occupants each

1994 Northridge CA
1992 M7.1 Mendocino
Kobe, Japan 1995
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Transportation Disruption

• Repairs will cause months of delays
• No highway bridge collapses
• Not true for local jurisdictions bridges
• Roads impassable due to
• Damage debris
• Landslides Fault Rupture
• Gridlock
• Traffic signals out
• Vehicles abandoned in place

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Stranded Commuters (LA example)
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Large Offsets Across the Fault
causing damage to the roads, rails, canals,
pipelinesand other infrastructure that cross the
fault
Example of really large offset before the
earthquake, these two guys could shake hands
Wairarapa fault, New Zealand, right-lateral
offset in 1855 earthquake
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Lifeline Disruptions

• Water system damage is critical
• Many homes and businesses withoutwater for 1
  week
• some for as long as 6 months
• Electricity and gas outages widespread
• Even in hardest hit areas, 90 ofservice
  restored in days
• Phone Systems Overwhelmed
• Cell towers unregulated so damaged
• Fault offsets internet lines
• All service out for first day mostrestored
  within 2 weeks

Transmission lines power plants
1971 San Fernando Earthquake
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Fire Following Earthquake

• Earthquakes cause fire disasters
• Numerous simultaneous ignitions
• Degraded fire-resistive building features
• Reduced pressure in water mains
• Saturated communications
• Traffic impacts
• More fires than firefighting capabilities
• Study findings
• 1,600 ignitions requiring a fire engine
• 1,200 exceed capability of 1st engine
• Northern Orange County LA Basinconflagrations
  destroy 100s of blocks
• 200 million square feet burnt 1.5 of total
  building stock
• No Santa Ana winds not worst case

Fire risk greatest in areas with strong shaking
and densely-packed wood buildings many such
areas in LA Basin and northern OR Counties
In the ShakeOut Scenario, Fires double casualties
and losses.
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Sheltering Needs

• Widespread building damage leavespeople without
  homes or jobs
• 270,000 displaced
• More than 500 public shelters
• 120,000 need intermediate andlong-term housing

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Deaths and Injuries

• 50,000 injured (requiring emergency rooms)
• Many non-functional hospitals due tostructural
  or non-structural damage
• Up to 2/3 of hospital beds unavailable insome
  counties
• 1,800 killed
• 900 from fires
• 900 from shake-related building
  andtransportation damage
• Compare to Northridge earthquake
• 8,300 injured
• 33 killed

Evacuation of Sherra Cox,1989 Loma Prieta
earthquake
Olive View Medical Center1971 San Fernando
earthquake
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Emergency Response Challenges

• Widespread need for help
• Assistance from far away
• Widespread disruption of
• communication
• transportation and access
• water pressure
• hospital functionality
• staffing

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Sources of Economic Shock
Building damage from ground motion
Building damage from fire
Economic Losses Direct property damage
business interruption Indirect ancillary
damage ripple effects
Water outage
ADJUST FOR DOUBLE-COUNTING MULTIPLE SOURCES
Power outage
Gas shut-off
Transportation route closure and delays
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Economic Impacts

• Damage to Structures and Contents 112.7b
• Fire is biggest shock
• Business Interruption 96.2b
• Water is biggest shock
• Additional Costs
• Relocation 0.1b
• Traffic Delay 4.3b

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A National Economic Disaster
Los Angeles Total Truck Flows (1998)
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Many Factors Influence Recovery

• Economic
• Regional economic resiliency and recovery
• Business vulnerability (small and vulnerable
  large businesses)
• Employment and income changes by economic sector
• Geographic distribution of labor force and income
  changes
• Jobs lost and jobs created (construction),
  migration in and out
• Insurance coverage and loans
• Geographic distribution of insured and uninsured
  losses
• Estimate of SBA loans for residences and small
  businesses
• Housing and rental market response
• Short and long run effects on real estate

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Some (relatively) Good News

• In this particular earthquake
• No underwater landslides
• Thus no local tsunami
• No dam failure
• 30 dams would sustain significant damage
• 3 would require evacuation, increasing demand on
  responders
• No significant structural damage to major
  airports
• Non-structural damage may disrupt operations
• No significant direct damage to ports
• Rail and road damage impede port business

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Why it is not even worse

• Protections in the Built Environment
• Inherently rugged construction
• Steadily improving building codes
• Highly trained and licensed engineers and
  contractors
• Good code enforcement
• Mitigation Works
• Enormous effort to upgrade highway bridges
• Extensive seismic work done by electric power
  utilities
• Planning/Legislation
• The Field Act
• Unreinforced Masonry (URM) retrofit laws
• Not the Worst Case
• Not the biggest or most urban-centric earthquake
• No Santa Ana winds

Progress onURM Mitigation70 as of 2006
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• What we do now,
• before the earthquake,

will determine what our lives are like after
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Dont Wait for the Quake!
More can and must be done...

• at every level
• individual, neighborhood, organization,
  government
• home, school, business, faith group
• tenant and landlord, employee and owner
• before, during, and after
• BEFORE will have the most impact
• by each and all of us
• if we want to reduce losses and recover quickly
• Were ALL in this together!

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The Great Southern California ShakeOut

• November 12-16, 2008
• A week of special events to inspiresouthern
  Californians to get ready forbig earthquakes
• Region-wide earthquake drill Nov. 13
• millions of participants schools,
  families,community groups, business, etc.
• Los Angeles International EarthquakePolicy
  Conference
• Get Ready Rally in downtown L.A.
• Hundreds of community events
• Concurrent with statewide GoldenGuardian
  emergency exerciselargest ever this year.

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ShakeOut Goals

• Participation of at least 5 million people in the
  ShakeOut Drill
• School, Business, and Community Organization
  recruitment effortswill have several million
  people participate
• Everyone is encouraged to spread the word to
  promote peopleparticipating in the ShakeOut!
• Shift the culture in southern California about
  earthquakes
• We must all take greater responsibility for
  readiness
• We all need to talk about earthquakes and
  preparedness more often
• Significant increase in earthquake readiness at
  all levels

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Everyone Can Participate!

• Register today to be counted in theShakeOut
  Drill, get email updates, and more.
• Get ready for big earthquakes, andpractice Drop,
  Cover, and Hold On at1000 AM on Nov. 13.
• Attend the Get Ready Rally on Nov. 14.
• Take one more step Nov. 15 and 16 complete your
  disaster plan kits, orattend a local
  preparedness event.

www.ShakeOut.org
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Prepare for Earthquakes
At home, work, and school

• Consider what would happen in a bigearthquake
  and what you can do now to reduce damage and
  recover quickly.
• Secure Your Space
• Top heavy furniture
• Water heaters
• TVs electronics
• Vulnerable structures
• Etc.
• Store More Water
• 1 gallon per person per day for at least3 days
  and ideally for 2 weeks
• Have a Fire Extinguisher(s)
• Everyone must know proper use

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More Readiness Information

• www.DareToPrepare.org
• www.Terremotos.org
• Putting Down Roots inEarthquake Country
• 32-page handbook
• Includes Seven Steps to Earthquake Safety
• Online to read, download, or order free printed
  copies

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We can make history. www.ShakeOut.org
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RSCCD Emergency Response Plan

• Purpose of the plan
• Ensure the safety and security of the faculty,
  staff, students and visitors.
• Maintain District operations and essential
  services.
• Minimize disruption of the academic program.
• Minimize District losses

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What the Plan Covers

• Legal obligations
• Evacuation procedures
• Floor Wardens
• Assembly areas
• Triage Areas
• Incident Command System

• Communications
• Radio use
• Media Response
• Command Post Operations
• Emergency Operations Center
• Crisis response kits
• Emergency Supplies

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Emergency Procedures Flipchart
The Emergency Procedures Flip-Chart along with
the Districts Emergency Response Plan outlines
how we will respond to emergencies.
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Legal Obligations

• California Government Code Section 3100 declares
  that public employees are disaster service
  workers, subject to such disaster service
  activities as may be assigned to them by their
  superiors or by law. This law applies to public
  school employees in the following cases 1) when
  a local emergency has been proclaimed, 2) when a
  state emergency has been proclaimed, or 3) when a
  federal disaster declaration has been made.
• The law has two ramifications a) public school
  employees may be pressed into service as Disaster
  Service Workers by their superiors, and may be
  asked to do jobs other than their usual duties
  for periods of time exceeding their normal
  working hours

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Instructor Responsibilities

• At the beginning of the semester, instructors
  should inform their classes what to do in an
  emergency
• Point out emergency egress routes and the
  location of the stairways
• Designate an initial assembly area (a safe area
  at least 100 away from the building) for your
  class
• Evacuate when the fire alarm sounds
• Drop, cover and hold during an earthquake
• Ask the class if anyone needs special assistance
  during an emergency

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Evacuation Procedures for Instructors

• Announce evacuation to class.
• Take roll sheets with you (Count students if you
  dont have roll sheets)
• Direct students to evacuation route and assembly
  area.
• Do Not use elevators
• Re-count students at assembly area and note any
  missing
• Report the location of any injured, trapped, or
  disabled persons waiting for rescue to your
  Building Captain
• Do not re-enter building until told to do so

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SAC Evacuation Zones
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Persons with Disabilities

• Note any persons with disabilities and assist
  them with evacuation so long as doing so does not
  place the person with disability at risk of
  greater injury.
• The person with disability is the person to
  determine the amount of assistance they he/she
  requires.
• Recognize that the person with disability may
  elect to remain in the facility at a point of
  refuge or rescue assistance to await professional
  assistance from the emergency responders.
• If this occurs, assist the person if necessary to
  the point of safe refuge or rescue assistance and
  once the class has safely evacuated, notify
  Building Captain and/or the emergency responders
  of the location of the person with disability.

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Floor Wardens

• Communicate the need to evacuate
• Direct people to the nearest stairwell or safe
  evacuation route
• Check all areas
• Close, but do not lock the doors
• Report the location of any injured, trapped, or
  disabled persons waiting for rescue
• Note any hazardous conditions
• Report to Incident Commander
• Assisting Campus Safety in preventing re-entry by
  non-emergency responders

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Earthquake

• DROP
• COVER
• HOLD

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Earthquake

• Stay away from windows (glass may shatter)
• Doorway not always safest
• Stay away from bookcases file cabinets (they
  may fall over)
• Do not immediately evacuate (it might be safer
  indoors)

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Nonstructural Hazards
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Nonstructural Hazards
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Incident Command System (ICS)
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Discussion

• How do we prepare for the drill?
• How do we notify students/faculty the drill is
  taking place?
• Will you activate the ICS?
• Where is the ICP?
• We need to practice radio communications
• Other????

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