Transportation Trends

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Transportation Trends Challenges in Wake
County
for the Blue Ribbon Committee on the future of
Wake County Thursday, March 30, 2006 Ed
Johnson, PE Capital Area Metro. Planning
Organization (CAMPO) Joe Milazzo II, PE
Regional Transportation Alliance (RTA)
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Outline

• Introduction
• Demographic and Travel Trends
• 2030 Long-Range Transportation Plan (LRTP)
• Funding Shortfall and Challenges
• Example Funding options

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Capital Area MPO (CAMPO)

• Planning entity required by Federal law for metro
  areas
• Composed of municipal and county elected
  officials and regional and state transportation
  partners
• Counties do not build roads in NC, only cities,
  towns, and NCDOT

• Determines regional transportation priorities in
  cooperation with NCDOT
• Now includes parts of 4 counties surrounding Wake
  (Franklin, Granville, Harnett, Johnston)
• Durham, eastern Orange in different MPO

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Recent history in CAMPO area

• Population
• Employment
• Vehicle Miles Traveled
• Traffic Congestion

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Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled(in 1000s of
V.M.T., region wide)
Source Texas Transportation Institute, 2005
Urban Mobility Study (for Raleigh-Durham Urban
Area)
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Peer Cities Comparison
2005 Mobility Statistics Raleigh Charlotte A
tlanta Austin Daily Travel in
Congestion 40 46 52 57 Congestion Cost per
Traveler 471 833 1,163 918

• Current situation despite recent growth, we
  are still much better than economic peers today
• But we are using up the available capacity we
  have
• And commuting patterns and demographic
  projections indicate a ticking time bomb of
  gridlock on the horizon

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Statewide Commuting patterns

• Urban areas are clearly States economic engines
• Wake-Durhamis largest cross-county commute in
  state

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Triangle Commutes Journey to Work Derived from
2000 CTPP Portions of surrounding counties will
grow 300 to 600 in population
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Regional Commuting patterns

• More than 50 of Franklin Co. commutes to Wake
  every day
• Portions of ring counties will grow 300 to 600
  in population in next 25 years

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2002 HOUSEHOLD UNITS
1 Dot 50 HHs
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2002 2030 HOUSEHOLD GROWTH
1 Dot 50 HHs
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2030 HOUSEHOLD UNITS
1 Dot 50 HHs
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2002 EMPLOYMENT
1 Dot 100 Workers
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2002 2030 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
1 Dot 100 Workers
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2030 EMPLOYMENT
1 Dot 100 Workers
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CAMPO area projections

• Population to grow by 95 by 2030
• Employment to grow by 103 by 2030

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Future Travel Trends

• Number of peoplehere to make tripswill increase
• Number of trips per person will increase
• Average trip length will continue to increase

Total daily vehicle miles of travel
75,000,000 50,000,000 25,000,000
0
2002 2030

• Result Total vehicle miles of travel will
  increase 114 (2.8 annual growth rate)

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Long-Range Transportation Plan LRTP

• Required by Federal law
• 25-year planning horizon
• Based on an estimate of reasonably
  expectedfuture funding streams

• Our Metro area TIP document is essentially the
  first seven years of the 25-year LRTP

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Long-Range Transportation Plan LRTP

• Includes projects that can be completed by 2030
  with reasonably expected funding
• fiscally constrained
• Estimates of future travel on system must meet
  air quality model standardsconformity analysis
• Addressing all future congestion is not a Federal
  requirement
• Limited funds result in a ticking time bomb of
  gridlock

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CAMPO LRTP Highlights

• Plan focuses on roads
• 72 of LRTP cost (5.7 Billion)
• More than 200 road projects in plan
• Over 1500 lane-miles of new/widened roads
• Assumes that money will be availableto complete
  I-540 and other key roads

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CAMPO LRTP Highlights

• Plan emphasizes transit / alternatives
• 28 of LRTP cost (2.1 Billion)
• Includes 300 miles of bicycle improvements
• Assumes funding for TTA phase I rail
• Assumes funding for 21 miles of HOV/express lanes

• Almost 1/3 of all future funding is devoted to
  encouraging transit and alternative
  transportation use

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CAMPO Roadway Projects
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CAMPO Roadway Projects
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CAMPO Transit Projects
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CAMPO LRTP Highlights

• Intelligent Transportation Systems
• Cary, Garner, Raleigh Traffic Signal System
  Upgrades
• Motorist Assistance Patrol (IMAP) Expansion
• Improved freeway incident detection
• Web based information systems

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CAMPO LRTP Highlights

• Travel Demand Management
• Triangle Best Workplace for Commuters (TTA and
  TJCOG)
• Smart Commute Challenge (RTP and TTA)
• RideTTA.org
• TTA Emergency Ride Home Program
• Vanpool Program (TTA)
• Multi-year TDM work program including coordinator
  position

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Multi-Modal Corridor Studies

• HOV / ValuExpress lane study for I-40

• Morrisville thoroughfare study
• Transit corridor studies
• I-540/US 1 south land use study

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CAMPO Funding Assumptions 2005-30
Most funded by 2030 projects needed before 2030
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Summary CAMPO Funding Shortfall

• Plan based on 6 billion in traditional funds
• Traditional funds include nearly 2 billion in
  projects that will be funded after 2020
• Most are needed sooner in some cases now
• Funded status masks the size of the problem

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Summary CAMPO Funding Shortfall
Funded by 2030 does not meannot needed until
2030
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These are the only projects that the plan assumes
can be built by 2020
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Summary CAMPO Funding Shortfall

• Recent double-digit inflation not considered in
  determining project inclusion
• Only 2 inflation assumed in plan
• Last 3 years have been 10-15 per year
• Plan assumes over 2 billion in revenues that we
  do not currently have authorization for
• 60m/yr additional regional/local needed by 2011
• 80m/yr additional state/federal needed by 2020

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Summary CAMPO Funding Shortfall
Funding assumptions may not materialize
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Summary CAMPO Funding Shortfall
Our future network may look closer to this in 2030
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Summary CAMPO Funding Shortfall

• Travel under congested conditions will more than
  double (117 increase) by 2030
• Even if the entire 8 billion plan is
  implemented, including 2 billion in assumed new
  funding
• With inflation-related project delays and/or
  limitations in new funding, fewer future projects
  means congestion will get even worse

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Durham
Wake Forest
Zebulon
Morrisville
Raleigh
Knightdale
Cary
Wendell
Apex
Garner
Holly Springs
Clayton
Fuquay-Varina
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Durham
Wake Forest
Zebulon
Morrisville
Raleigh
Knightdale
Cary
Wendell
Apex
Garner
Holly Springs
Clayton
Fuquay-Varina
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Summary CAMPO Funding Shortfall
Comprehensive Transportation Plan (30 - 50 Year
Plan)
Comprehensive plan includes projects that you
cannot pay for by 2030
Long Range Transportation Plan (20 30 Year
Plan)
TIP (7 Year Plan)
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Summary CAMPO Funding Shortfall

• Plan excludes an additional 1.6 billion in road
  needs that cannot be paid for by 2030
• Even with 2 billion in assumed new funding
• Unfunded transit needs may approach an additional
  2 billion
• Total additional funding needed beyond
  traditional sources by 2030 6 billion in Wake
  County
• Plus 2b to accelerate projects before 2021

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The Federal Government is unlikely to solve our
problem

• NC receives less than 95 return for highway
  funding from the national government
• NC is traditionally a donor state for highways
• Our share for transit has been far worse
• Transit approvals have become more stringent as
  demand for funding has increased
• Cost-effectiveness criteria for new starts more
  difficult to meet, as we have seen for TTA

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The State of North Carolina isunlikely to solve
our problem

• 85 Billion in needs
• 55 Billion in revenue
• 30 Billion statewide gap
• Recent inflation not included
• 8 b in Triangle- specific needs may be
  unaccounted for

Source NCDOT Long Range Transportation Plan
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The State of North Carolina is unlikely to solve
our problem

• NC allocates federal and state revenues largely
  by formula, based on hwy. division boundaries
• Wake, Orange, Johnston, Harnett, and Chatham
  counties are in 5 different highway divisions
• Growth- usage-related factors not in formula
• Vehicle miles traveled
• Cross-county commuting
• Metropolitan area or market boundaries
• Traffic delays and congestion
• Population increase projections
• Fuel taxes receipts collected

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The State of North Carolina is unlikely to solve
our problem

• Annual transfer of transportation taxes and fees
  to other purposes
• 250m per year
• RTA continues to advocate for ending this
  practice
• With other competing statewide needs we cannot
  count on the end of this transfer

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Example Funding Options

• Needed additional revenues 250-300m per year
• Increase Federal funding
• Increase overall funding, and/or return to NC
• Increase State funding
• Increase overall funding, and/or return to
  Triangle
• End 250 Million transfer
• Local/Regional Funding
• Enabling legislation for revenue options
• Increase municipal fees
• Public Turnpike or Private Concessions
• Authorize toll roads or lanes

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Toll Projects Under Consideration
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Triangle Parkway (NC 147 / Durham Freeway
extension)

• Length 3.5 miles
• Cost 150m
• Environmental
• review expected
• spring 07
• Toll financial
• feasibility study
• underway

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I-540 - Western Wake Freeway

• Length 11 miles
• Cost 278m 550m
• Environmental review done (except toll ops)
• Toll financial feasibility study underway

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• We cannot afford to get caught behind the
  curve on transportation infrastructure. Those
  states that have fallen behind have never
  successfully recovered
• Governor Mike Easley
• (July, 2005)

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Transportation Trends Challenges in Wake
County for more information

• Ed Johnson, PE Executive Director
• Capital Area Metro. Planning Org. (CAMPO)
• The Professional Building Suite 406
• 127 West Hargett St Raleigh 27601
• 919.807-8500 ed.johnson_at_ci.raleigh.nc.us
• www.campo-nc.us
• Joe Milazzo II, PE Executive Director
• Regional Transportation Alliance (RTA)
• 800 South Salisbury St Raleigh 27602
• 919.664-7062 joe_at_letsgetmoving.org
• www.letsgetmoving.org