Population Growth in ME

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Population Growth in ME NA
2
Population Pyramids

• In many ME NA countries, the population pyramid
  is truly pyramid-shaped with 40 younger than 19
  years and less than 5 over 65.

3
Population Pyramids
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Hidden Momentum of Population

• Family planning takes many years to achieve
  replacement fertility beyond a two-child family
  because todays children are future parents
  e.g., in Iran
• If family planning began in 1990
• Two-child family may achieve in 2035 (45 years)
• Fertility would eventually decline in 2150 (115
  years)

5
Demographic Transition

• Stage 1 high birth rate high death rate
• Stage 2 high birth rate declining death rate
  due to improved heath and medicine
• Stage 3 falling birth rate due to economic
  development and family planning low death rate
• Stage 4 low birth rate low death rate

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Demographic Transition
7
Demographic Transition

• Majority of ME NA countries are still in stage
  2, experiencing population explosion with high
  birth rates, but falling death rates

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The Demographic Transition
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Reasons for High Fertility Rates

• Economic children are viewed as capital goods to
  help with the family labor force
• Social children will provide security for the
  aged parents
• Cultural children are viewed as gifts from God
  they add to the number of people following the
  religion (e.g., Islam, Judaism)
• Political children will enable politicians and
  military leaders to gain power and win conflict

10
Female Fertility Infant Mortality

• The more children are born, the more children die
  because of inadequate health care nutrition
• The more children die, the more replacement
  children are born because of the need for kids

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Policies to Lower Fertility Rate

• Invest in public health to reduce infant
  mortality and the demand for "replacement"
  children
• Improve female education and labor force
  participation
• Family planning educate the poor about the
  population problem and provide contraception at
  minimal cost

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Policies to Lower Fertility Rate

• Increase employment and income
• Improve income distribution increase income
  share of the poorest 40 of the population

13
Resistance to Family Planning

• Lack of education and understanding of the
  population problem
• Ideology overpopulation is a capitalist problem
• Religious belief contraception and/or abortion
  are not permitted
• Military a large and young population is
  desirable to win wars

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Education Human Capital

• On-the-job training
• Technical and vocational training
• Formal education at the elementary, secondary,
  and higher levels
• Adult education extension programs in
  agriculture
• Migration internal (rural- urban and
  urban-urban) and external (the brain drain)

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Educational Expenditures

• Educational expenditures as a proportion of
• the GDP has nearly double in ME NA
• between 1970 and 1990 (e.g., Jordan, Saudi
• Arabia

16
Enrollment Growth

• Enrollment ratios have substantially increased in
  many countries in all levels of education
  (primary, secondary, and tertiary)
• Still secondary and tertiary enrollment ratios
  are not high enough (e.g., less than 80 in
  secondary and less than 15 in tertiary)

17
Science Education

• The educational system is biased toward liberal
  arts at the expense of sciences. Enrollment
  ratios in sciences is less than 40
• As a result many students go abroad to gain
  science education (e.g., engineering). Nearly
  20 of high school and college graduates study
  abroad

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Educational Problems

• Shortage of qualified teachers and administrators
  and textbooks
• Lack of emphasis on critical thinking and
  analytical skills development
• Cultural and political resistance to education
  because it creates new values and expectations
• Unfavorable attitude toward female education and
  participation

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Educational Problems

• Creation of "educated" unemployment and
  underemployment due to limited labor absorptive
  capacity
• Expansion of urban open unemployment through
  rural-urban and urban-urban migration
• Increased income inequality since higher
  education is generally available to the already
  affluent people
• Inability to accommodate foreign educated
  professionals, contributing to the brain drain