Defense Transformation: Concepts and Affordability

1
Defense Transformation Concepts and
Affordability

• Jack Treddenick
• George C. Marshall Center
• DRESMARA
• 16 October 2006

2
The Present Challenge

• Information age and globalization
• New strategic environment
• New operating environment
• New warfighting concepts
• New warfighting technologies
• Defense transformation
• Affordability

3
Coming to Terms With Terms

• Defense reform
• Modernization
• Revolution in military affairs
• Transformation

4
Defense Reform

• The implementation of effective democratic norms
  of civil-military relations in a states defense
  institutions.

5
Modernization

• A commitment of resources, usually on a
  continuous basis, to upgrade existing military
  capabilities to more effectively meet existing
  security challenges.

6
A Revolution in Military Affairs

• The emergence of radically new doctrinal,
  organizational, or technological opportunities
  that may yield new ways of conducting military
  operations.

7
Transformation

• A commitment of resources to achieve
  significantly new military capabilities through
  major changes in doctrine, organization, and
  equipment.

8
New Strategic Environment

• New players
• Expeditionary operations
• Multilateral operations
• Casualty averse
• Asymmetric warfare
• Stability operations
• Nation building
• Information operations
• Cyber warfare

9
New Operating Environment

• More complex
• More uncertain
• More volatile
• More dangerous

10
21st Century Forces

• SURPRISE!

11
21st Century Forces

• AGILITY!

12
New Warfighting Technologies

• Precision-guided weapons
• Stealth
• Space assets
• Remote sensing
• Unmanned platforms
• Increased lethality of munitions
• Rapid air and sea deployability
• Computer networks

13
C4ISRT- dissipating the fog of war

• Command
• Control
• Computers
• Communications

• Intelligence
• Surveillance
• Reconnaissance
• Targeting

14
S2PL surprise, economy, accuracy, effectiveness
Speed Stealth Precision Lethality
15
Dominant Maneuver

• Strategic maneuver the capacity for force
  projection
• Operational maneuver the capacity for deployed
  forces to gain positional advantage with decisive
  speed and operational tempo

16
Elements of the Current RMA
S2PL
C4ISRT
RMA
Dominant Maneuver
17
New Warfighting Concepts - from hierarchical
command and control
18
- to robustly networked command and control
structures
19
Transformation

• Emphasizes lighter, more deployable, more
  precise, more lethal forces.
• Exploits IT for networking forces.
• Implies smaller, more entrepreneurial units, not
  necessarily smaller forces.
• Requires significant investments in mobility,
  communications and precision weaponry
  technologies.
• Will be expensive.

20
Data Sources

• NATO, Information for the Press, 8 December 2005
  and previous. (defense expenditures, GDP, budget
  distributions, armed forces strengths)
• IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2006.
  (GDP (PPP) per capita)

21
US Defense Expenditure and Personnel
Strength1970-2005
22
US Per Capita Expenditure(2000)1970-2005
(Per capita expenditure Total expenditure /
Personnel strength)
23
UK Defense Expenditure and Personnel
Strength1970-2005
24
UK Per Capita Expenditure(2000)1970-2005
(Per capita expenditure Total expenditure /
Personnel strength)
25
Affordability Benchmark

• Transformation is affordable if a nations
  non-personnel defense spending per member of the
  active armed forces is at least equal to that of
  the United Kingdom on a purchasing power parity
  basis.

26
Per Capita Non-Personnel Expenditure

• Defined as the total non-personnel portion of the
  defense budget divided by number of regular force
  personnel
• Reflects training time and intensity, deployment
  costs, equipment acquisition, maintenance, RD
• A proximate measure of capacity to transform

27
Defense Expenditures (2005)
28
Per Capita Expenditure 2005 (US)
29
Per Capita Expenditure 2005 (US)
Adjusted for per capita income levels and
international procurement
30
Expenditure constant personnel level
31
Personnel constant expenditure
32
Transformation Ambitions

• Full spectrum
• Broad expeditionary force
• Focused expeditionary force
• Selective expeditionary force
• Stabilization force
• Specialized support

33
International Player Ambitions

• Low profile / low risk
• Low profile / medium risk
• Medium profile / medium risk
• Medium profile / high risk
• High profile / high risk
• Global responsibilities

34
Transformation Uncertainties

• Revolution or evolution?
• Potential peer competitors?
• New vulnerabilities?
• Relevant for MOOTW?
• Information overload?
• Potential for micromanagement?
• Speed equals bad judgment?
• Oversold?

35
Transformational Priorities

• Thinking
• Learning
• Planning
• Force analysis
• Interoperability C4ISR
• Mobility
• Precision weapons

36
Lots of change, but one enduring certainty