Keith Tovey '' M'A', PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

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Climate Change The Greatest Threat to
Mankind? Hard Choices Ahead the CRED Project
Rotary Club of Kirkwall 20th September 2007
Rotarian Keith Tovey Rotary Club of Norwich
Keith Tovey (???) ?.?.???? M.A., PhD, CEng,
MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director Low Carbon
Innovation Centre School of Environmental
Sciences, UEA
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Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region
• Nasa satellite imagery

• 20 reduction in 24 years

Source Nasa www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/top
story/2003/1023esuice.html
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from
Energy Review 2002
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable

• Transport Fuels
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
Output 78 000 GWh per annum Sufficient for 13500
house in Orkney Save 40000 tonnes of CO2
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
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Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
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Our Choices They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e
onshore/offshore wind and biomass.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for
next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to
see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy on this and the other attendant
risks?

• If our answer is NO
• Do we want to return to using coal?
• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise
  significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within
  10 years UNLIKELY

If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave
things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and
electricity generation? gtgtgtgtgtgt
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Our Choices They are difficult

• If our answer is YES
• By 2020
• we will be dependent on GAS
• for around 70 of our heating
  and electricity
• imported from countries like Russia, Iran,
  Iraq, Libya, Algeria
• Are we happy with this prospect? gtgtgtgtgtgt

If not We need even more substantial cuts in
energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our
future to effects of Global Warming? - the
North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on
renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making
will lead us down the GAS option route and all
the attendant Security issues that raises.
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On average each person in UK causes the emission
of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks
like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did
nothing because he thought he could do only a
little." Edmund Burke (1727 1797)
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Raising Awareness

• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a
  washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will
  cost over 100 a year just for this appliance
  alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume
  of 1 party balloon.

• A Mobile Phone charger gt 10 kWh per year
• 500 balloons each year.

• Standby on electrical appliances
• 60 kWh a year - 3000 balloons.

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc) 1 party balloon every
  60m.

• Filling up with petrol (40 for a full tank
  40 litres)
• --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5 of
  one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family
car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much
carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for
1 hour?
1.6 miles
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Hard Choices

• What can we as individuals do?
• What can you do collectively as a Club?
• Visit the CRed WEB Site
• Sign a pledge to
• combat global warming
• help secure a sustainable environment for our
  children
• help reduce the adverse impacts of Global
  Warming
• help secure energy supplies for the future
• saving energy
• Adopting technical solutions
• Promoting Awareness
• Promoting appropriate renewable energy

www.cred-uk.org
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A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future???????
1. ?????? Awareness
2. ???????? Technical Solutions
3. ??????? Renewable Energy
4. ????? Offsetting
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The Development of
CRed
UK
Districts 1080 and 1110 have already started Can
District 1010 do even better?
Overseas
Coming Soon
In the Future????
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Conclusions

• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few
  decades
• Energy Security will become increasingly
  important. Inaction over making difficult
  decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more
  likely in future.
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL
  generation of energy
• It is as much about the individuals response to
  use of energy as any technical measures the
  Government may take.
• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real
  alternatives for renewable generation in next 5
  10 years.
• Technical/Economic constraints prevent large
  scale development of photovoltaic, tidal and wave
  in this period
• Otherwise Nuclear???
• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming
  Energy Security issues will shortly start to
  affect us.

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And Finally

• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make
  choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an
  old persons room

Are you up to the Challenge? Will you make a
pledge?
"If you do not change direction, you may end up
where you are heading."
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist
philosopher
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Is Global Warming man made?
Prediction Natural only good match until 1960
Prediction Anthropogenic only Not a good match
between 1920 and 1970

• Predictions include
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Sulphates and ozone
• Solar and volcanic activity

Prediction Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a
good match
Source Hadley Centre, The Met.Office