WFO Upton/New York City

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WFO OKX Topics in WDM
Michael L. Ekster  Severe Weather Warning Technolo
gy Workshop 12 July 2005
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Area of Responsibility
2005 Population 18.6 million (6.3 US Pop)
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Major Programs

• Public
• Aviation
• Marine
• Hydrology
• Severe Weather
• Hazmat/Terrorism
• Fire Weather
• Upper Air
• Tropical

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Issues during an event

• Largest media market in the world
• NYC OEM needs constant updates
• Spotter reports
• - Almost 100 phone calls PER HOUR
• Office has been short staffed for the last 3
  years
• Below average experience (especially on Radar)

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Issues...

• Never enough AWIPS workstations
• - 9 Tafs (3 major hubs) almost need 2
  forecasters for Tafs alone
• - Warnings
• - Statements
• - At least one forecast desk for routine product
  updates (what if a watch is issued?)
• - Public Service
• - Mesoanalysis?
• - Sectorization? (huge marine community!)

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Issues

• Forecaster to population ratio
• -One forecaster per 1.86 million people
• WFO OKX gets hit from all sides 12 months of
  the year
• - Severe convective events
• - Winter storms
• - Tropical threat
• - Hazmat
• - Busiest aviation City in the world
• - Very large marine community
• Given weather threats and population, could very
  well be the most stressful FO in the country
• Help?

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Radar/WDM Issues

• Sampling problems
• -Average height of lowest radar slice in the
  region of the CWA that usually receives worst
  convective weather is 7-12 kft

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Radar/WDM Issues

• Pulse severe thunderstorms
• - Frequent occurrence
• - Can be deadly due to pop. density
• - One pulse tstm anywhere in the cwa can
  adversely affect 100k people
• - Need to find a way to achieve better lead
  times (especially over the most urbanized areas)
• - 5 minute lead times are nearly worthless here

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Radar/WDM Issues

• Urban flooding
• - Some areas of NYC develop flash flooding with
  rainfall rates of less than 1/hr.
• - Some areas of NYC can take a lot more
• - Rainfall estimations/Z-R relationships
  continue to be a challenge for many
• - Significant subway flooding Summer 04 no
  FFW!
• Worst event for the city since 9/11
• Hydroview
• - Does not update in a timely manner ( every 3
  hours during an event)
• - Someone has to call the gages takes away
  from doing other important tasks

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Training is key

• Technology generally works, but is only as good
  the user!
• Must train staff on mesoscale processes and
  analysis of them much better situational
  awareness
• AWOC/DLOC excellent courses, but how much is
  really relevant to Northeast severe weather?
• - Storm scale signatures not as classic here
• - Big consequences still do result population
• - WES makes up for some of this, but how about
  an AWOC type course for Eastern U.S. WFOs?
• - Focus on mesoanalysis and storm scale
  signatures would be excellent

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12z 08Aug99 OKX sounding
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Sounding modified for conditions immediately on
the cool side of the boundary
0-3 km CAPE
Very low LCL
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Modified 0-6 km hodograph storm motion and SFC
winds