Population and Sustainable Development: The Complex Reality

1
Population and Sustainable Development The
Complex Reality

• Udoy Saikia
• School of Geography, Population and Environmental
  Management
• Presentation at Professional Development Training
  
• Flinders University, South Australia
• 24th March 2009

2
The themes

• Population growth Global, Developed and
  Developing Countries
• Population and Environment sustainable
  development approach
• The North-South debate

3
World Population 2009 Source The United Nations
2009
4
Trends in population growth past, present,
future

• Pre-Modern (Before 1750)
• Agricultural Revolution 5 - 10 mill
• (About 10,000 Years Ago)
• 1st Century A.D. 270 330 mill
• 1,000 A.D. 275 345 mill

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The first modern expansion

• The first modern expansion started in 1750
• Caused mainly by expansions in European
  populations with fluctuating birth and death
  rates.
• Estimate of the Worlds population in 1750
  between 735 and 805 million

6
Time taken to add a billion(Source Population
Reference Bureau 2004)
7
Population growth in the 20th Century (between
1900 and 2000)

• World 1.65 to 6.1 billion
• (1.3 per annum)
• Developed countries 0.54 to 1.2 billion
• (0.8 per annum)
• Developing countries 1.1 to 4.9 billion
• (1.5 per annum

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During the 100 years from 1900 to 2000

• 85 of the world population growth occurred in
  the developing countries
• In 1900, developing countries comprised 67 of
  the worlds population
• In 2000, developing countries comprised 81 of
  the worlds population

9
Annual Increase in World Population(Source
Population Reference Bureau 2004)
Millions
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2002 Revision, 2003.
10
Trends in Population Growth Worldwide (Source
Population Reference Bureau 2004)
Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year
Periods
Percent increase per year
Millions
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2002 Revision (medium scenario),
2003.
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Trends in Population Growth Worldwide

• The last figure illustrates the lag between
  changes in the rate of growth and the net
  increase in population per year.
• During 1985-1995, the population growth rate
  declined (due to declining fertility), yet
  millions of people were added to the worlds
  population
• The net addition peaked around 1985, when 87
  million people were added each year

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Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide
Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per
1,000 population
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2002 Revision (medium scenario),
2003.
13
(No Transcript)
14
Global population trend
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The Current Scenario Total Fertility Rates
(TFR) in 2005Source The State of World
Population 2005, UNFPA
16
The Current Scenario Regional Differentials in
Total Fertility Rates in 2005Source The State
of World Population 2005, UNFPA
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The Current Scenario Some HighlightsTotal
Fertility Rates in 2005Source The State of
World Population 2005, UNFPA

• Each and every developed nation has current TFR
  below Replacement Level.
• A total of 20 developing countries have current
  fertility below replacement level.
• Countries in Eastern Europe are facing the
  biggest fertility crisis with an average TFR of
  1.29 which means that every parents/couple is
  replaced by only 1.3 children.
• Hong Kong has the lowest fertility rate in the
  world 0.95
• China- the most populated country in the world
  has a current fertility of 1.72 which is below
  replacement level.
• Tunisia and Mauritius are the only nations in
  Africa to have a current fertility below
  replacement level.
• East Timor has the highest TFR (7.8) in the world
  which is almost eight times higher than TFR of
  Hong Kong. (Source Demographic Health Survey,
  Timor-Leste 2003)

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Trend Fertility Rates The Global scenario
1950-2005 Source UN Population Division, World
Population Prospects The 2002 Revision (2003)
and The State of World Population 2005, UNFPA.
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Population and Environment

• Assessing Environmental Impact on Population
• Paul Ehrlichs formula
• IPAT
• where,
• I Total environmental impact
• P Population size
• A Affluence
• T Environmental impact of technologies used
  for affluence

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A brief critique of the IPAT formula

• Modification suggested by Paul Harrison
• IPAT
• where,
• I total environmental impact
• P population size
• A consumption per person (a measurable and
  better indicator of Ehrlichs Affluence)
• T environmental impact per unit of
  consumption (a measurable indicator and better
  indicator of Ehrlichs Technology)
• Impact can refer to any of our three main forms
  of interaction with the environment
• our use of primary resources from minerals to
  water and land
• our physical occupation of space or
• our output of pollutants

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A brief critique of the IPAT formula

• Criticisms of IPAT equation
• This is a multiplicative model which assumes
  independence between population size, affluence
  and technology an incorrect assumption
• The definition of affluence is not clear- how do
  you measure affluence?? Is GNP per capita a
  reliable indicator to measure affluence??

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A brief critique of the IPAT formula

• Suggested modification of IPAT by CSIRO
• I f (P, L, O, T)
• where,
• P population size
• L life style
• O organisation
• T technology
• f is a function which is not necessarily linear

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Assessing Environmental Impact on Population

• Ecological Footprint
• A nations ecological footprint corresponds the
  land area needed to sustain human consumption and
  absorb its ensuing wastes. Comparing the
  footprint of a given population in a discrete
  area with the amount of biologically productive
  space available to the population provides a way
  to estimate whether or not a populations
  consumption is sustainable. (Venetoulis and
  Talberth 2005).

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Assessing Environmental Impact on Population

• When a populations footprint is smaller than
  the available bio-capacity it is sustainable and
  when it is larger, that population is said to be
  engaging in unsustainable ecological balance or
  negative ecological balance.

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Assessing Environmental Impact on Population
Source Living Planet Report, 2000

• OECD countries have ecological deficit
  (consumption of 7.22 area unit against the
  capacity of 3.42 area unit) a deficit of 3.80
  per person
• Latin America and the Caribbean have the worlds
  highest ecological surplus 3.93 area units
• North America has the worlds highest ecological
  deficit (5.64)and the US has the deficit of 6.66
  area unit per person.
• Africa has a ecological surplus of 0.40
• Most Asian countries have ecological deficit but
  the deficit is much lower compared to the
  developed countries

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Moving towards Sustainable Development

• Sustainable Development is development that
  meets the needs of the present without
  compromising the ability of the future
  generations to meet their own needs (WCED, 1987,
  p.43)
• Treat the Earth well. It is not inherited from
  your parents, it is borrowed from your children
• Old Kenyan proverb

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The Meaning of SD
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The gap is widening

• The developing world now spends 13 on debt
  repayment for every 1 in receives in grants
  (Global Development Finance 1999, The World Bank,
  cited in http//www.jubileeresearch.org/jubilee200
  0/news/imf0904.html)
• Half the world nearly three billion people
  live on less than two dollars a day.
• The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the poorest
  48 nations (i.e. a quarter of the worlds
  countries) is less than the wealth of the worlds
  three richest people combined.
• A mere 12 percent of the worlds population uses
  85 percent of its water, and these 12 percent do
  not live in the Third World.
• 1.1 billion people in developing countries have
  inadequate access to water, and 2.6 billion lack
  basic sanitation.

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Global priority North vs. SouthSource
http//www.globalissues.org/TradeRelated/Facts.asp
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The North-South Gap
31
Would it be better to born a Japanese cow than
an African citizen Source Labonte 2005
32
Development assistance as of Gross National
Income
Source OECD/DAC Annual Report 2004
Anglo-American
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Net ODA in 2007 as percent of GNI Source OECD
Development Statistics Online, 2008
34
Greenhouse Gassing The Dirtiest Dozen 2005
(Source Labonte 2005)
Italics indicate Kyoto ratifiers
35
Is another world possible?
http//www.worldwire.org
36

• Data sources
• Ron Labontes seminar at Flinders
  http//som.flinders.edu.au/FUSA/SACHRU/Conferences
  /events_2005.htm
• The United Nations, 2009. World Population
  Prospect, The 2008 Revision
• Living Planet Report assets.panda.org/downloads/lp
  r2000.pdf