Ryan Peoples, S.M. Candidate

1
Value-Based Multidisciplinary Optimization for
Commercial Aircraft Design

• Ryan Peoples, S.M. Candidate
• Prof. Karen Willcox, Advisor
• Research Motivation How to effectively consider
  the business case in the early stages of aircraft
  design
• Business case drives program decisions
• Uncoupled engineering/financial design is
  suboptimal
• Research Objective Develop multidisciplinary
  decision-making methodology and tools for
  aircraft design to find
• Effects of valuation estimates early in design
  process
• Effects on value, design due to uncertainty
• Context Boeing BWB case study

2
Problem Setup

• Joint Performance/Financial Multidisciplinary
  Model
• Aerodynamics, structures, controls, etc.
• Cost, price, demand
• Optimization Framework
• Objective function max ENPV
• Multidisciplinary simulation model
• Dynamic programming algorithm to calculate
  expected NPV
• Uncertainty -gt stochastic market demand
• Flexibility -gt Real Options theory
• Optimization Results
• Program ENPV financial outcomes
• Aircraft performance layout
• Optimal decision-making strategy
• Probabilistic assessment of business risk due to
  technical, market uncertainty via sensitivity
  analyses

Framework
Outcomes
Vehicle design
Program cash flows