CAFE baseline dissemination workshop

1
CAFE baseline dissemination workshop

• September 27, 2004Hendrik Conscience building,
  Brussels

2
Purpose of the workshop

1. Presentation public, first hand information on
   the CAFE baseline projections.
2. Understanding of the common starting point for
   the analysis on further emission control
   legislation in Europe.
3. Information on project environmental and health
   impacts of the air quality up to 2020.
4. Presentation the results of the peer review of
   the RAINS model.
5. Clarification of results.
6. Information of next steps on analysis and
   publication of the Thematic Strategy on Air
   Pollution.

3
Programme

• 1010 Building the baseline (Vainio)
• 1030 Energy projections (Mantzos)
• 1055 Commentary (Jol)
• 1105 Discussion
• 1120 Coffee break
•  
• 1140 CAFE Baseline (Amann)
• 1210 Commentary (Baverstock)
• 1220 Discussion
•  
• 1300 Lunch

• 1400 Baseline impacts (Amann)
• 1440 Commentary (Ågren)
• 1450 Discussion
• 1520 Sum up findings (Amann) 
•  
• 1540 Coffee break
•  
• 1600 RAINS Review (Woodfield)
• 1630 Discussion
• 1650 Overall discussion  
• 1720 Next steps (Gammeltoft)
• 17.30 Closure

4
Building the baseline

• Motto Wisdom starts from facing the facts
  CONSTRUCTION OF THE BASELINE IN CAFE
• (3 December 2001)
• See http//europa.eu.int/comm/environment/air/c
  afe/pdf/
• steering_technical_group/construction_of_baseli
  ne.pdf
• Main issues to be solved when baseline is
  developed
• Changes in economic activity
• Changes in the structure of our economies
• Changes in autonomous technological development
• Changes in specific sectors
• Agriculture (e.g. CAP reform), energy supply (eg.
  renewables, nuclear), transport sector (e.g.
  biofuels, congestion charging), industry and
  other sectors (new production methods,
  innovations etc.)

5
Principles when building the CAFE baseline

• Extensive consultation
• Planned to hold three stakeholder workshops.
  Actually held kick off and final workshop and
  a series of bilateral consultations. In addition,
  specific workshops/meetings on agriculture,
  transport (TREMOVE) and industry were held either
  under the auspices of CAFE or separately (eg.
  TFIAM).
• Review main tools
• CAFE team decided with CLRTAP (TFIAM) to have
  RAINS peer reviewed.
• Review ecosystem and health impacts - abatement
  options
• CCE, WHO, EGTEI and others gave vital technical
  information
• EMEP calculated the effects of the baseline
  emissions
• Also EMEP model was peer reviewed.
• Transparency
• Identified the clear need to share the CAFE
  baseline with the State of the Environment and
  Outlook of EEA.

6
Main technical tasks of Clean Air for Europe
New target setting (2004) 4.1 4.2
Assessment of health and environ-mental effects
(2001-03) 1.1-1.4
Integrated Assessment (including CBA) (2004-05)
5.1-5.3
Baseline emissions and air quality scenario
(including atmospheric modelling) (2001-04)
2.1-2.4
Policy guidance (2005) 7
Development integration of models (2001-04)
2.4 5.2
Implementation (2001-04) 6.1
Peer review
Stakeholder participation
Public information
Note Numbers is parenthesis ( ) refer to the
years when the tasks are carried out. Numbers in
square brackets refer to the tables of tasks
in the Work Plan
27 September, 2004
7
Details of main technical tasks of CAFE
Assessment of health and environmental effects
1.1-1.4
Selection of health and environmental targets for
optimisation 4.2
Selection of alternative scenarios 5.2
Selection of indicators 4.1
Identification of potential measures 5.1
Integrated Assessment Modelling 5.2
Assessment of measures, ceilings, proposed
targets or commitments 5.4
Policy guidance 7
Cost curves 5.1
Baseline emissions scenario 2.1-2.2
Analysis of costs and benefits 5.3
Source-receptor functions, regional and urban
scale 2.4
27 September 2004
Interaction throughout
Note Numbers in square brackets refer to
the tables of tasks in the Work Plan
Monitoring and atmos-pheric modelling 2.3-2.4
Implementation, peer review, stakeholder
participation, public information
8
Why and how were climate policies included

• It was clear that one cannot prepare a baseline
  in isolation of climate change policies
• Decarbonisation of the EU will affect air quality
  up to 2020
• However, for CAFE robust assumptions should be
  enough
• In consultion with the Climate Change unit,
  specific assumptions were made
• Climate bonus assumes that the enlarged EU
  complies with the Kyoto Protocol with 12 per
  tonne of CO2 equivalent
• In the Sectoral Objectives study the main
  conclusion was that EU-15 could comply with 20
  per tonne of CO2 equivalent. JI/CDM and
  enlargement will reduce this cost.
• Carbon constraint is assumed to increase linearly
  to 20 per tonne of CO2 equivalent by 2020

9
What about NEC?

• A separate baseline for NEC will be constructed
• Also the integrated assessment modelling will be
  further developed
• Bilateral consultations will take place in 2005
• Proposal from the Commission in 2006

10
Conclusions

• In 2001, we aimed at getting a baseline that is
  as good as it gets
• Now we have it!

So lets see how it looks like!