Environmental Analysis and Strategic Uncertainty

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Chapter 6
Environmental Analysis and Strategic Uncertainty
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We are watching the dinosaurs die, but we dont
know what will take their place. - Lester
Thurow MIT Economist
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There is something in the wind. - William
Shakespeare The Comedy of Errors
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A poorly observed fact is more treacherous than
a faulty train of reasoning. - Paul
Valéry, French Philosopher
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Dimensions of Environmental Analysis

• Technology
• Forecasting Technologies
• Disruptive Technologies
• Impact of New Technologies
• Government
• Economics
• Culture
• Demographics

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Strategic Uncertainties Categories
Monitor and analyzecontingent strategies
considered
In-depth analysis develop strategy
Monitor and analyze
Monitor
Figure 6.2
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Scenario Analysis
Identify Scenarios
Develop Scenario Strategies
Estimate Scenario Probabilities
Perform Regret Analysis
Figure 6.3