Future applications for wood opportunities and limitations

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Future applications for wood opportunities and
limitations

• Geoff Covey, Reg Harvey and Dennis Shore
• Covey Consulting Pty Ltd

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Looking to the future

• Predicting the future is notoriously difficult,
  and has a history of failure.
• The further one tries to look ahead the harder
  it becomes but the less people around at the
  end to tell you you were wrong!
• Compare 1906 with today, then think about the
  next 100 years.

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Forestry.
Environmental change.
No more oil.

Forest products.
Solid products.
Fibres.
Fuels.
Silvichemicals.
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Forestry

• Not really our area, but some predictions
  possible.
• Clearer distinction between conservation and
  production forests.
• Much more active forest management real tree
  farms, but on increasingly marginal land.
• Greater diversity to suit particular
  applications including some totally artificial
  species.

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Changing environment
Is the effect real? Is it caused by carbon
dioxide? Not todays topic.
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Changing environment
Is the effect real? Is it caused by carbon
dioxide? Not todays topic. Even if unreal,
precautionary changes will be made.
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Changing environment
Is the effect real? Is it caused by carbon
dioxide? Not todays topic. Even if unreal,
precautionary changes will be made. If real and
due to CO2 some forest will be required just to
fix carbon the resulting timber cannot be
burned or left to decay.
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Changing environment
Is the effect real? Is it caused by carbon
dioxide? Not todays topic. Even if unreal,
precautionary changes will be made. If real and
due to CO2 some forest will be required just to
fix carbon the resulting timber cannot be
burned or left to decay. Need to reduce fossil
fuel use will encourage use of timber in place of
metals (and perhaps polymers)
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Changing environment
Is the effect real? Is it caused by carbon
dioxide? Not todays topic. Even if unreal,
precautionary changes will be made. If real and
due to CO2 some forest will be required just to
fix carbon the resulting timber cannot be
burned or left to decay. Need to reduce fossil
fuel use will encourage use of timber in place of
metals (and perhaps polymers) Even if not due to
CO2 need forests that can resist many decades
of erratic weather.
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No more oil!
Oil reserves are finite will probably be
largely depleted in 50-100 years. For
stationary power hydro, nuclear, maybe coal are
more likely than wood. For transport fuels wood
has better prospects. Ultimate choice will
depend on whether green house gases are also a
problem.
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FOREST PRODUCTSSolid products

• Not our area, but a few safe bets
• Sawmilling less energy and waste
• Improved sawn timber dimensional stability.
• Chemical treatment for customised surface
  properties.
• Greatly improved reconstituted products better
  structural strength.
• More timber for enclosures and structures.

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FIBRES
Despite decline in some segments, packaging and
hygiene products and increasing prosperity in
China and India will ensure overall demand
increase for some time yet. Plantations for
custom fibres, uniformity and certified
sustainable products. Improved use of thinnings
(too wet for fuel) hardwood substitute from
young softwood.
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But not all from wood
Sugar cane for ethanol and fibre
co-production. Kenaf for long fibre bast and
cellulosic core for fuel. Agricultural residues
to improve utilisation. Shorter lead time to
establish non-woods plantations very attractive
in a changing world but less drought resistant
than trees.
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FUELS

• For a variety of reasons, there will be an
  increasing demand for renewable energy
• For static power generation
• For transport

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Static power

• Plenty of alternatives to wood
• Hydro, geothermal, wind, solar (some more
  practical on a large scale than others).
• Nuclear not renewable, but low impact.

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Static power

• Plenty of alternatives to wood
• Hydro, geothermal, wind, solar (some more
  practical on a large scale than others).
• Nuclear not renewable, but low impact.
• Wood fired power stations already under
  consideration. They have advantage of available
  when required, but best for base load power.

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Wood for static power has its problems

• Wet, especially if harvested young, and difficult
  to dry economically on a very large scale.
• Very large plantation areas and associated
  logistics for large scale operation.

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Transport fuel
Ethanol by hydrolysis and fermentation probably
most promising at the moment. It has operated on
a massive scale in Brazil, and on substantial
scale in other countries. Cellulose to ethanol
has a stoichiometric yield of 56.8 - perhaps 53
in practice? Large land areas required.
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Ethanol for Australia?
Annual oil consumption 50 mill t 2.1x109
GJ/a Ethanol required to replace all oil 79
mill t/a.
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Ethanol for Australia?
Annual oil consumption 50 mill t 2.1x109
GJ/a Ethanol required to replace all oil 79
mill t/a. At 53 yield, cellulose required
150 mill t/a.
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Ethanol for Australia?
Annual oil consumption 50 mill t 2.1x109
GJ/a Ethanol required to replace all oil 79
mill t/a. At 53 yield, cellulose required
150 mill t/a. For typical cellulose and basic
dens 600 mill m3/a
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Ethanol for Australia?
Annual oil consumption 50 mill t 2.1x109
GJ/a Ethanol required to replace all oil 79
mill t/a. At 53 yield, cellulose required
150 mill t/a. For typical cellulose and basic
dens 600 mill m3/a Assume 20 m3/ha year
(marginal land, uncertain rain fall) New forest
required for ethanol 33 million ha
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Is there room?
Total area of Australia is 7,686,850
km2 Current total forest area 166 million ha Of
which plantation is 1.6 million ha
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Is there room?
Total area of Australia is 7,686,850
km2 Current total forest area 166 million ha Of
which plantation is 1.6 million ha Additional
plantations for ethanol 33 million ha 4.3
of all land
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Is there room?
Total area of Australia is 7,686,850
km2 Current total forest area 166 million ha Of
which plantation is 1.6 million ha Additional
plantations for ethanol 33 million ha 4.3
of all land Not impossible but a very
substantial change in land use
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This is not the whole story
On the plus side growth rates and cellulose
yields should improve by 2100
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This is not the whole story
On the plus side growth rates and cellulose
yields should improve by 2100 BUT significant
energy required to run the forests and
harvesting, the ethanol production and refining
and distribution of product.
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This is not the whole story
On the plus side growth rates and cellulose
yields should improve by 2100 BUT significant
energy required to run the forests and
harvesting, the ethanol production and refining
and distribution of product. Ethanol from corn
gives only 1.3 times as much energy as it uses.
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This is not the whole story
On the plus side growth rates and cellulose
yields should improve by 2100 BUT significant
energy required to run the forests and
harvesting, the ethanol production and refining
and distribution of product. Ethanol from corn
gives only 1.3 times as much energy as it
uses. Ethanol from sugar cane ratio is 8.3
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This is not the whole story
On the plus side growth rates and cellulose
yields should improve by 2100 BUT significant
energy required to run the forests and
harvesting, the ethanol production and refining
and distribution of product. Ethanol from corn
gives only 1.3 times as much energy as it
uses. Ethanol from sugar cane ratio is 8.3 For
wood ???
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The balance
Different growth rate figures from previous
example
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The challenges
Less energy intensive wood production (despite
higher growth rates). Higher cellulose (and
sucrose) content crops. Crops that suit future
weather patterns.
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SILVICHEMICALS
Reducing availability of petroleum. Increasing
demand for cellulose for paper and ethanol. Large
quantities of by product lignin available as a
feed-stock.
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YOU CAN MAKE EVERYTHING OUT OF LIGNIN EXCEPT
MONEY
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The challenges
For scientist new and better processes For
engineers better efficiency and economics. For
business develop markets and take the plunge.
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Perhaps?

• Dont treat lignin as a product think of it a
  feedstock.Break it down to simple aromatics and
  alcohols and build chemicals from them.

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Perhaps?

• Dont treat lignin as a product think of it a
  feedstock.Break it down to simple aromatics and
  alcohols and build chemicals from them.
• Develop new, high performance polymers from
  lignin exploiting its properties instead of
  fighting them.

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Perhaps?

• Dont treat lignin as a product think of it a
  feedstock.Break it down to simple aromatics and
  alcohols and build chemicals from them.
• Develop new, high performance polymers from
  lignin exploiting its properties instead of
  fighting them.
• Develop new polymers which bond well with
  cellulose fibres (chemistries are compatible) and
  make new lignin-cellulose composites.

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CONCLUSIONS
The next 100 years should see increasing demand
for wood both for some of the old purposes, and
for some new ones.
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CONCLUSIONS
The next 100 years should see increasing demand
for wood both for some of the old purposes, and
for some new ones. Enhanced performance will be
demanded.
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CONCLUSIONS
The next 100 years should see increasing demand
for wood both for some of the old purposes, and
for some new ones. Enhanced performance will be
demanded. There will be plenty of work for wood
scientists!
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