Monetary Policy

1
Monetary Policy Inflation Reports

• International Comparisons

2
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

• Title SEMI-ANNUAL STATEMENT ON MONETARY POLICY
• First issue May 1997 approx. length ? 50 pages
• Report of the RBA (formally presented by the
  Governor but no authorship indicated)
• Annual frequency 2 per year
• Numeric Inflation target not prominent (mentioned
  in introduction usually)

3
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA(CONTD)

• Focus on broad macroeconomic developments
  (international, domestic, balance of payments,
  foreign exchange and financial markets
• Focus boxes on measurement issues and current
  topics of interest
• No separate treatment of policy uncertainties
• Inflation outlook discussed
• No formal inflation projection but survey of
  expectations by RBA and private sector forecasts
• No chronology or details of monetary policy
  decisions (provided separately)

4
BANK OF CANADA

• Title MONETARY POLICY REPORT
• First issue May 1995 approx. length lt 50 pages
• Report of the Governing Council (Governor,
  Deputy-Governors)
• Annual Frequency 2 per year, increased to 4 with
  interim updates
• Numeric Inflation control target is prominent
• Monetary conditions index used to indicate stance
  of monetary policy (reduced prominence over time)

5
BANK OF CANADA(CONTD)

• Focus on inflation Developments but other factors
  also described (aggregate demand/supply,
  commodity prices, consumer confidence, monetary
  aggregates)
• Focus boxes used to motivate current topics of
  interest
• Policy uncertainties discussed throughout
• Inflation outlook section and measures of private
  sector inflationary expectations
• No detailed inflation projections presented
• No chronology or additional information presented
  about decisions taken since previous report
  (available separately)

6
BANK OF FINLAND

• Title MONETARY POLICY AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
• First issue March 1999 approx. length ? 10
  pages part of the Bank of Finlands Bulletin and
  not a separate publication
• No authorship attributed
• Annual frequency 2 per year
• Numeric Inflation target not prominent
• Monetary conditions index used and discussed

7
BANK OF FINLAND (CONTD)

• Focus on inflation developments but with
  discussion of developments in euro area as well
• No focus boxes
• No explicit treatment of policy uncertainties
• Inflation outlook discussed
• Inflation projections provided as well as for a
  wide variety of macroeconomic aggregates
• No chronology or details of monetary policy
  decisions

8
GERMAN BUNDESBANK

• Title MONTHLY REPORT
• First issue 1989 approx. length lt 50 pages
• Report not authored by any particular individual
  or group
• Annual frequency 12 (4 quarterly reports on the
  economic scene with inter-quarter updates)
• No formal inflation target (mention of
  unavoidable price increases)
• No monetary conditions index

9
GERMAN BUNDESBANK(CONTD)

• Focus is on general economic developments
  (Quarterly international, financial markets,
  trade and public finance Inter-quarter updates
  monetary, securities, public finance, balance of
  payments)
• Policy uncertainties discussed
• General inflation and economic outlook provided
• No formal inflation projections provided
• no chronology or information about monetary
  policy decisions provided (available elsewhere
  in monthly and annual reports)

10
BANK OF JAPAN

• Title MONTHLY REPORT OF RECENT ECONOMIC AND
  FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS previously called
  QUARTERLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
• First issue Winter1997 monthly since 1998
  approx. length lt100 pages
• Report of the Bank of Japan Policy Board
• Annual frequency (12) monthly
• No numeric inflation target
• No monetary conditions index

11
BANK OF JAPAN(CONTD)

• Focus is on general economic developments (all
  sectors including financial, external, and real
  estate)
• No focus boxes
• Separate treatment of policy uncertainties
  (TheBanks View)
• Inflation outlook not especially prominent
• Formal inflation projections and other
  projections introduced in Outlook and Risk
  Assessment of the Economy and Prices since
  October 2000
• No chronology or discussion of monetary policy
  decisions provided (minutes, calendar of Policy
  Board meetings available separately)

12
RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND

• Title MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
• First issue April 1990 approx. length lt 50
  pages
• Report of the Governor
• Annual frequency 4 per year increased to 8 with
  4 interim updates
• Numeric Inflation target prominent
• Monetary conditions index used to indicate stance
  of monetary policy (reduced prominence over time)

13
RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND (CONTD)

• General discussion of macroeconomic conditions
  (fiscal developments, household and business
  credit, consumer confidence, commodity and asset
  prices real estate, stocks, not monetary
  aggregates after 1996)
• Use of focus boxes to motivate cover technical
  issue
• Separate treatment of policy uncertainties
• Macroeconomic outlook section
• Detailed projections presented
• Chronology and monetary policy decisions presented

14
NORGES BANK

• Title INFLATION REPORT
• First issue September 1996 approx. length lt
  50 pages
• Report of the Executive Board
• Annual frequency 4 per year
• No numeric inflation control targets
• Monetary conditions index discussed until

15
NORGES BANK(CONTD)

• Focus is on developments in inflation but with
  discussion of exchange rate and cyclical
  developments, labor market, wholesale and import
  prices, and monetary aggregates
• Focus boxes on current topics
• Inflation outlook prominent
• Formal inflation projections presented alongside
  private sector expectations
• No chronology or details of monetary policy
  decisions presented

16
SWEDENS RIKSBANK

• Title INFLATION REPORT
• First issue October 1993 approx. length lt 100
  pages
• Report of the Governor and the Governing Board
• Annual frequency 4 per year
• Numeric Inflation target prominent
• No monetary conditions index discussed as such

17
SWEDENS RIKSBANK (CONTD)

• Focus on inflation developments but includes
  discussion of interest rate effects and euro area
  developments, housing and credit costs, monetary
  aggregates)
• Focus boxes on current topics of interest
• No separate section on policy uncertainties but
  risks discussed
• Inflation prospects section
• Detailed inflation projections including
  uncertainty (risk spectrum) as well as private
  sector expectations
• No minutes or calendar of discussions published
  (information available separately)

18
SWISS NATIONAL BANK

• Title BULLETIN TRIMESTRIEL(Quarterly Bulletin)
• First issue 1983 approx. length lt100 pages
• Report from SNB to the Directorate
• Annual frequency 4 per year
• Formal inflation target of lt 2 in CPI (beginning
  in 2000)
• No monetary conditions index

19
SWISS NATIONAL BANK(CONTD)

• Focus is on general economic developments,
  including international, monetary aggregates,
  interest rates, aggregate demand/supply, labor
  markets, and prices)
• No focus boxes
• No separate section on policy uncertainties
• Inflation and general economic outlook provided
• projections for inflation 3 years ahead beginning
  in 2000
• past monetary policy decisions discussed
  (chronology of monetary policy decisions
  provided)

20
BANK OF ENGLAND

• Title INFLATION REPORT
• First issue February 1993 approx. length ? 100
  (increased following operational independence in
  1997)
• Report of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC
  Governor, internal/external experts)
• Annual frequency 4 per year
• Numeric Inflation target prominent
• No Monetary conditions index discussed as such

21
BANK OF ENGLAND (CONTD)

• General discussion of macroeconomic conditions
  (monetary financial market developments,
  aggregate demand/supply, labor, detailed price
  developments, monetary aggregates, asset prices
  equity, real estate)
• Use of focus boxes to cover technical issues
• Policy uncertainties discussed throughout
• Inflation prospects section
• Detailed inflation projections, including
  uncertainty around projections (fan chart)
• Minutes of the MPC, press notices, and economic
  reports from various sectors of the economy

22
US FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

• Title HUMPHREY-HAWKINS REPORT (1978-2000)
  MONETARY POLICY REPORT
• First issueFEB 1979 approx. lengthlt50 pages
• Report of the Board of Governors testimony by
  Federal Open Market Committee Chair
• Annual frequency 2 per year
• No numeric inflation control target
• No monetary conditions index

23
US FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM(CONTD)

• Focus is on general economic developments,
  including prices (households, businesses,
  government, external, labor and financial
  markets, debt and monetary aggregates)
• No Focus boxes
• Policy uncertainties discussed
• Inflation and general economic outlook provided
• projections for inflation and GDP growth provided
  as well as relation with private sector
  expectations
• past monetary policy decisions discussed
  (advance dates, minutes, press release of
  discount rate decisions available separately)

24
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

• Title MONTHLY BULLETIN
• First issue January 1999 approx. length lt 50
  pages
• Report of the Executive Board of the ECB
• Annual frequency 12
• Numeric inflation target prominent (in Editorial)
• No monetary conditions index used as such

25
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK(CONTD)

• Focus is on euro area developments (monetary,
  price, aggregate demand/supply, fiscal, and
  international)
• Some mention of risks (in Editorial) but no
  separate section on policy uncertainties
• Discussion of general economic outlook throughout
• projections for the euro area provided (beginning
  December 2000)
• Governing Council decisions discussed
  (chronology provided)

26
NATIONAL BANK OF HUNGARY

• Title QUARTERLY REPORT ON INFLATION
• First issue November 1998 approx. length lt 100
  pages
• Report not attributed to any person/group but is
  presumed to be from Central Bank Council
  (President, Vice-President, internal/external
  experts)
• Annual frequency 4 issues per year
• Inflation objective indicated but as a long-term
  goal with no transitional objectives specified
• Monetary conditions discussed but not in index
  form

27
NATIONAL BANK OF HUNGARY (CONTD)

• Inflation developments discussed but other
  factors also discussed (aggregate demand/supply,
  yield curve, monetary aggregates)
• Focus boxes on definitional and operational
  questions
• Focus on sources and types of inflation (domestic
  foreign, industrial consumer, regulated
  unregulated prices)
• Focus is on uncertainty in the transmission
  mechanism
• No separate inflation prospects section
• No detailed inflation projections but private
  sector expectations discussed
• Chronology introduced in recent issues

28
NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND

• Title INFLATION REPORT
• First issue 1999 approx. length ? 100 pages
• Report of the Monetary Policy Council (not
  explicitly defined in report)
• Annual frequency (4) Annual at first with
  quarterly update
• Inflation control target prominent with gradual
  reduction outlined (9.5 1998, 6.6-7.8 1999,
  NONE 2000, lt 4 by 2004)
• No monetary conditions index discussed

29
NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND(CONTD)

• Focus is on inflation developments but other
  factors also discussed (aggregate demand/supply,
  equity prices, fluctuation band of the zloty,
  monetary aggregates)
• Focus boxes on definitional and operational
  questions
• Focus also on sources and types of inflation
  (domestic foreign, industrial consumer
  prices)
• Focus also on uncertainties in the transmission
  mechanism
• Inflation prospects section
• No formal projections presented
• Calendar of monetary policy decisions provided

30
CZECH NATIONAL BANK

• Title INFLATION REPORT
• First issue April 1998 approx. length lt 50
  pages
• No authorship attributed
• Annual frequency 4 issues per year
• Inflation control target is prominent (2-4
  2000)
• No monetary conditions index discussed

31
CZECH NATIONAL BANK(CONTD)

• Focus is on aggregate demand/supply factors
• Focus boxes on definitional questions
• Focus is on sources and types of inflation
  (monetary aggregates, domestic foreign,
  industrial consumer, regulated unregulated)
• No discussion of uncertainties about transmission
  mechanism
• Inflation outlook section
• Inflation projections presented
• Minutes of the Central Bank Board published

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Summary Information
33
Summary Information(CONTD)